Flood Watch This Weekend

This weekend is going to be a wet one and with lots of tweets and press releases are flying around.  I want to clear up some confusion about who may or may not see flooding.

HIGHLIGHTS

If you live in the lowlands AWAY FROM RIVERS (80% of us do), flooding is unlikely.  It appears there just won’t be that much rain in the lowlands.

If you live in the lowlands near a river that comes out of the Cascades or Coast Range…flooding is far more likely.  If you live along the Sandy, Clackamas, or Molalla rivers I think significant or major flooding is possible.

If you live in the foothills of the Coast Range/Cascades, western Gorge, or mountains themselves, be on the lookout for mud/landslides late Saturday through late Sunday.

Today’s social media world has made communicating clear weather information a bit tougher.  Of course I’m adding to it just by posting this…sorry!

I see two trends this afternoon:

1.  Precipitation is looking even lighter in the lowlands with very little Saturday evening through late Saturday night.

2.  We dry out in the lowlands by midday Sunday…probably dry Sunday afternoon north of Salem.

Take a look at our RPM forecast for rain in the Portland area…just an inch or so.  If this happens you can totally forget about flooding in the metro area.  Notice no rain after 8am Sunday as the main rain band slips south:

MarkRain_RPM_NEXT24HOURS

But take a look at Welches…same model:

MarkRain_RPM_NEXT24HOURS_Welches

continuous rain the whole period…that’s why those mountain rivers will be flooding by Sunday

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

115 Responses to Flood Watch This Weekend

  1. Looks like it’s riding on the boarder of the freezingmark at Timberline.

  2. Jason Hougak says:

    Was not a very impressive atmospheric river event. The event had long durations over steady light rain but some breaks and not very heavy rain periods. At least Timberline can rebuild and has a good base to pack now once it cools.

  3. Jason Hougak says:

    After a craZy cold run yesterday it’s back to looking more typical but the mountains are looking to get much needed snow.

  4. Jason Hougak says:

    Base survived at Timberline… settled to 15″ but it’s back down to 32F and snowing. Web cam at Lodge shows accumulating snow in parking lot.
    Let the snow pack building resume!!!

  5. schmit44 says:

    PDX just tied the daily record high of 59 just before midnight

  6. Jeff NE Portland says:

    Where has Rob been with his analysis?

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