Storm Day: 10am Update

10am…

Everything is on track for strong/damaging winds to arrive in the next 2 hours on the central coastline of Oregon and into the Willamette Valley soon after.  Hold on this afternoon!

Morning models are in and (surprise!) every single one pretty much matches what we are seeing on satellite imagery which is very close to what has been advertised the past 24 hours.

Low pressure is tracking north along the coastline and strong south wind fills in behind the low as it moves north.  It appears to be a little faster than my previous forecast…by about 2 hours.

  • Wind arrives around Newport/Florence around Noon
  • Wind arrives in the southern Willamette Valley 1-2pm
  • Wind arrives Salem by 2-3pm
  • Wind arrives in Portland metro area 3-4pm, just east wind until that time.
  • Peak gusts will be within 3 hours of wind arrival all these areas…it’s a fast-moving system
  • By 9pm it’ll be back to just “breezy” and then mainly calm by midnight

I haven’t changed my peak gust forecast of 75-90 mph on the coastline and 45-55 mph in the valley.  This isn’t a major windstorm by any means in the interior valleys, but enough to cause lots of outages and trees down.

That said, I’m leaning towards the upper end on the valley wind speeds.  I’m thinking we’ll see gusts at metro area airports (official locations) in the 50-55 mph range.  THIS IS A BIT STRONGER THAN WHAT WE SAW IN OCTOBER.  Maybe I should have stayed with the 45-60 mph gusts I first forecast two days ago.  Why?

The WRF-GFS came it a bit stronger with wind gusts in the valley.  Plus it appears there will be plenty of sunbreaks, maybe even just partly cloudy, as the strong wind arrives.  Temperatures will jump into the lower (or mid?) 60s for an hour or so when that happens.  Look at all of the significant windstorms here that occur during the day and you’ll see the high temp is always very warm.  Warmer temps at the surface add more instability.  That allows stronger winds above to surface down where we live more easily.

You can see the progression of the wind very nicely on the HRRR model below at Noon.  Note wind gusts forecast speed is in knots…multiply by 1.15 for mph:

hrr_noon

2pm…wind arriving at Albany and Salem

hrr_2pm

4pm…rocking and rolling at this point in the metro area.  Watch out for downed trees and/or flying debris during the evening commute.

hrr_4pm

10pm…down to some southerly breezes with lots of us out of power!

hrr_10p

These are from WeatherBell, a private organization that produces some beautiful weather maps!  It’s a subscription site, but worth every penny if you are a weather geek like me.  If your boss pays for it…even better!

The forecasting is done and now we just sit back and wait for the wind reports to roll in…

We have more newscasts on FOX12/PDXTV than any other news organization in Portland.  So we’ll be on FOX12 from 5-7pm, PDX-TV 8-10pm, and FOX12 again from 10-11:30pm.  During that time of course we’ll be keeping you updated on-air.

Since we’re not ALWAYS on (although it seems like it in the evening), remember we’re on Facebook and Twitter as FOX12WEATHER and of course right here on the “old-style” FOX12 WEATHER BLOG.  There are other weather groups on Facebook in the Portland area, not run by me or endorsed by FOX12, but you’re welcome to join them too of course.  What they do is their own business so don’t come to me complaining about something over there.

I’ve opened the comments down below…but for the love of meteorology…please stop acting like children!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

64 Responses to Storm Day: 10am Update

  1. Briita Steed says:

    long beach wa ok so far a little rain hope that’s all

  2. schmit44 says:

    Barometer briefly went below 29.00″ at Astoria. Pressure now rising there.

  3. paulbeugene says:

    G 52mph in EUG. I think we are done with strongest winds down here but am thinking stronger gusts to around 60mph in Salem. will see.

  4. Stacy Cayce says:

    Sudden gust in SE Hillsboro. Was just outside 10 minutes ago and sunny and still. Happening pretty quickly.

  5. Lauraholic says:

    The winds have arrived in Oregon City. Still intensifying.. but they seem earlier than predicted! I LOVE THIS!!!!!!

  6. Ron says:

    Still calm in Astoria, but the sun has disappeared and the rain is back

  7. David B. says:

    Watch got upgraded to a warning this morning up this way. We shall see. Must remember to unpack the box with the candles in it this afternoon.

  8. jen says:

    Just started getting windy here in canby.

  9. alohabn says:

    If I go outside and had no idea about the storm, there’s no way you could convince me of a HWW with how nice it is outside right now!

  10. High Desert Mat says:

    Looks like quite the band of lightning strikes in southern Oregon. Will they be marching north and east with the cold front? Hmmmm, nice stormy day in December.

  11. yevpolo1990 says:

    Redeveloping eye…

  12. High Desert Mat says:

    And now this…….we have no power. Whole neighborhood is out. Happened in October too. 😒

  13. High Desert Mat says:

    Looks like the low just moved north of Newport. Yaquina bridge just gusted to 62. Should pick up any time now in Eugene.

  14. dharmabum says:

    OK Dad!

  15. alohabn says:

    Wow it’s clear out there! Calm before the storm. Maybe the winds will be good enough to take that dang tree down I need gone cause boy that’s expensive work!

  16. 18z Surface Analysis depict the low to still be at a fairly impressive 975mb, so minimal weakening occurring if any presently. That is really close to 12z WRF… and it’s not weakening as quickly as 00z models had it doing so. Nice


  17. Ryan says:

    I remember in 1995, things went dead calm and skies cleared, right before all hell broke loose. If we see that again, look out!

  18. Steve Hawks says:

    The report says hit the central coastline and move into the valley. I live near Astoria, is the storm track indicating some or all of the storm to divert south of us?

  19. High Desert Mat says:

    I just had a gust hit 53 on my station. Lights are flickering.

  20. Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

    The rains let up the sky brightens and parts everyone thinks its another busted forecast then boom. 50mph winds. Well, only 45 for us in the valley dead zone

  21. runrain says:

    It looked, to my untrained eye, that the low was opening up and filling earlier this morning. I started thinking bust, but again, I’m untrained!

  22. Christiana says:

    All is calm in Forest Grove the rain has stopped and the wind hasn’t started. If I didn’t know better I would say that this was shaping up to be a nice day.

  23. W7ENK says:

    According to multiple official reports earlier this morning, there were already tens of thousands without power in Southern Oregon through Ashland-Medford-Grants Pass. I haven’t checked for updates in a couple hours.

  24. vernonia1 says:

    please let me know if you find a list like this for CA…..the list is BELOW the map…………
    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/mwmap.php…

  25. vernonia1 says:

    watching kpix.com in SF for live reports of rain & flooding

  26. Rob "Top of Scott" says:

    Standing guard on top of Mt Scott!

  27. Thanks for the analysis and forecast, Mark.

    I love your enthusiasm this morning and it shows in your update. I’m a bit unsure on strong winds as we’re not seeing very good 3hr pressure rises in southwest/southern Oregon yet. As of 10 AM the EUG-MFR gradient is running below where the WRF forecast it to be. That’s what I use to measure how well pressure rises are occurring south of us. I guess we’ll find out in a few hours.

  28. bonine4336 says:

    I noticed that Crescent City already has a peak gust to 68mph. Not bad.

  29. MasterNate says:

    Where’s my binky? CANT FIND MY BINKY!!!

  30. vernonia1 says:

    thank you Mark for the update!! Will be watching here & on tv as long as power allows 🙂 No drop in my barometer yet.

  31. Lauraholic says:

    This is exciting. I really wish I was at the coast!

  32. W7ENK says:

    Thanks for the update, Mark.

  33. Brian Leroy says:

    Why is seattle gonna get stronger winds then pdx?. guest to 65mph there.

  34. High Desert Mat says:

    Breezy to gusty in Redmond at the 10 o’clock hour. HWW issued thru 7 tonight. A huge tree is down about a block up the street from where I live. It fell on top of a house, I hope everyone is ok. No ambulances or sirens so I assume they are. As of now there are crew cutting it down and power crews taking care of the downed lines.

  35. yevpolo1990 says:

    Thanks Mark, fully agreed. I am going with 58 at khio.

  36. paulbeugene says:

    I’m on standby, reporting from Eugene, Oregon.

    It is nice outside.

  37. Christiana says:

    Thanks for the information Mark. I’m going to assume that since I live in Forest Grove my wind will come a little sooner.

  38. IceCold says:

    Thank you, Mark!

  39. PaulO says:

    Awesome info. Thanks Mark

  40. JJ78259 says:

    1st from San Antonio

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