Everything is on track for strong/damaging winds to arrive in the next 2 hours on the central coastline of Oregon and into the Willamette Valley soon after. Hold on this afternoon!
Morning models are in and (surprise!) every single one pretty much matches what we are seeing on satellite imagery which is very close to what has been advertised the past 24 hours.
Low pressure is tracking north along the coastline and strong south wind fills in behind the low as it moves north. It appears to be a little faster than my previous forecast…by about 2 hours.
- Wind arrives around Newport/Florence around Noon
- Wind arrives in the southern Willamette Valley 1-2pm
- Wind arrives Salem by 2-3pm
- Wind arrives in Portland metro area 3-4pm, just east wind until that time.
- Peak gusts will be within 3 hours of wind arrival all these areas…it’s a fast-moving system
- By 9pm it’ll be back to just “breezy” and then mainly calm by midnight
I haven’t changed my peak gust forecast of 75-90 mph on the coastline and 45-55 mph in the valley. This isn’t a major windstorm by any means in the interior valleys, but enough to cause lots of outages and trees down.
That said, I’m leaning towards the upper end on the valley wind speeds. I’m thinking we’ll see gusts at metro area airports (official locations) in the 50-55 mph range. THIS IS A BIT STRONGER THAN WHAT WE SAW IN OCTOBER. Maybe I should have stayed with the 45-60 mph gusts I first forecast two days ago. Why?
The WRF-GFS came it a bit stronger with wind gusts in the valley. Plus it appears there will be plenty of sunbreaks, maybe even just partly cloudy, as the strong wind arrives. Temperatures will jump into the lower (or mid?) 60s for an hour or so when that happens. Look at all of the significant windstorms here that occur during the day and you’ll see the high temp is always very warm. Warmer temps at the surface add more instability. That allows stronger winds above to surface down where we live more easily.
You can see the progression of the wind very nicely on the HRRR model below at Noon. Note wind gusts forecast speed is in knots…multiply by 1.15 for mph:
2pm…wind arriving at Albany and Salem
4pm…rocking and rolling at this point in the metro area. Watch out for downed trees and/or flying debris during the evening commute.
10pm…down to some southerly breezes with lots of us out of power!
These are from WeatherBell, a private organization that produces some beautiful weather maps! It’s a subscription site, but worth every penny if you are a weather geek like me. If your boss pays for it…even better!
The forecasting is done and now we just sit back and wait for the wind reports to roll in…
We have more newscasts on FOX12/PDXTV than any other news organization in Portland. So we’ll be on FOX12 from 5-7pm, PDX-TV 8-10pm, and FOX12 again from 10-11:30pm. During that time of course we’ll be keeping you updated on-air.
Since we’re not ALWAYS on (although it seems like it in the evening), remember we’re on Facebook and Twitter as FOX12WEATHER and of course right here on the “old-style” FOX12 WEATHER BLOG. There are other weather groups on Facebook in the Portland area, not run by me or endorsed by FOX12, but you’re welcome to join them too of course. What they do is their own business so don’t come to me complaining about something over there.
I’ve opened the comments down below…but for the love of meteorology…please stop acting like children!
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen