High Wind Warning Issued

1pm Wednesday…

Portland NWS just issued a High Wind Warning for all areas west of the Cascades in NW Oregon and SW Washington at midday.  This if for storm #3 of our current round of wet/windy systems.  Here is the latest:

  • Confidence is very high that the Oregon Coast will see a major windstorm Thursday midday-afternoon.  Gusts 75-90 mph look likely out there.  Today’s storm turned out a bit weaker than expected, but don’t let that lull you into a false sense of security if you live out there, tomorrow’s system is different.
  • Confidence is also high that there will be gusty south wind late tomorrow afternoon and evening in the western valleys too.  I’m confident that we’ll see gusts at least 35-50 mph.  This is a pretty typical winter wind event here.  Not a huge storm in that case, but enough to cause some trouble.
  • Much lower confidence that we have a “big” windstorm coming to the inland valleys.  There IS a high enough chance that the NWS pulled the trigger on a High Wind Warning.  That means gusts 58+ mph.  That would be a big deal and the strongest we’ve seen here since December 2006.
  • Wind will be from the normal easterly direction much of the day tomorrow…nothing interesting will happen until after 2-3pm.
  • Based on available info as of noon:  In the valley, from Eugene to Longview, I’m forecasting a sudden increase in south wind during the mid-late afternoon hours in the valley.  Southerly gusts 45-55mph.  This is similar to what we saw in late October.  Because of the leaves on the trees and the very wet ground at that time, PGE had 80,000 customers out at one time!  I think the same speed right now wouldn’t do as much damage with no leaves, but still a pretty decent southerly windstorm.

MarkWarnings_High Wind

The big question is whether the wind ramps up beyond that into “Big Windstorm” category.  Models seem to have back-pedaled just a bit and some have turned a bit weaker in the past 12 hours.

All the morning model runs are in with a few changes.

1. The GFS is farther offshore, which would put 50mph gusts almost out of range for the metro area.

2. The ECMWF is also ever so slightly farther offshore, but not enough to make much of a forecast difference.  It’s also SLIGHTLY weaker with inland wind.

3. The GEM has a perfect track with the low heading north to around Olympia…quite a pressure rise, but it’s also the slowest.

4.  All models are filling the low after it passes the central Oregon coastline.  Not a big deal, but I noticed it.

5.  Timing is slower all around…by about 6 hours compared to 24 hours ago.

6.  The 12z and 18z NAM still say gusts 30-35 mph at best.  I ignored it.  Our RPM is very weak as well.  Strange since it’s based on the GFS.

In general the trend looks a bit weaker to me and I’m not sold that we have any sort of major windstorm coming for the valleys, thus the wide range in the peak gust forecast (45-60 mph).  There are still 2 more main model runs before the event, including one before I’m on at 10pm tonight for our “big show”.

So the big story for right now is “wait and see” what changes in models for the next 12 hours, and GET READY FOR A BIG STORM on the Oregon Coast!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

207 Responses to High Wind Warning Issued

  1. Jason Hougak says:

    Sierras are going to get hammered above 6500 feet with 2-3 feet near the crest. They sure need it down there.
    My grandfather worked for Southern Pacific railroad. He got me a video set of railroad movies. One has the winter of 1952 when the sierras get walloped by one of the heaviest snowfall winters to be recorded. One train gets snowbound, continuous round the clock effort to keep the snow on the run. Quite a remarkable film.
    Their snow fighting equipment is now prolly rusted up.

  2. Dringus says:

    Summary of this thread: 1. Group that has obviously trolled Rob plenty in the past claims they aren’t doing it anymore.

    1. W7 claims someone is in a world of legal hurt for blog postings…lolz.
    2. Apparent Rob-sympathetic noob who hasn’t seen this play itself out over and over again chimes in constantly and repeatedly and derails most weather conversation.

    I miss anything?

      1. I’m not a noob. I’ve been part of this blog since its inception.
        2.W7 is talking though something other than his mouth.
      2. Apparent Rob-sympathetic noob is not Rob. He is real.
      3. Bring it on!
      4. (and this is what you missed) I hope the big bad wolf blows your house down. 🙂
  3. No Snow says:

    The storm has gone full r-tard!

  4. Boydo3 N. Albany elev. just under 500' says:

    Flab five for sure. Thought for sure you were lounging away down Baja way, Larry.

  5. paulbeugene says:

    Looking at the 3km HRRR run from 03Z and the run from 04Z.

    at 16Z the low center on the 03Z run was predicted to be 977mb. On the 04Z run it is 973mb at 16Z. That is a 4 mb adjustment downward and the models may still be catching up. The model runs only out to 15 hours but is still has it at 973mb 80-100 miles offshore of Coos Bay.

  6. Down to 44 here now. How cold will it get tonight? I’m hoping for snow on the mountain is that going to happen anytime soon?

  7. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    An excerpt from tonight’s NWS AFD (Portland):

    “THUS…BASED ON THE LIMITED NEW DATA SO FAR…AM INCLINED TO BELIEVE THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS ARE A TOUCH HIGH…ESPECIALLY OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS. IT ALSO APPEARS ON WATER VAPOR THAT THE LOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO MAKE A TURN TO THE NE AND WILL END UP JUST OUTSIDE 40N 130W AT 12Z INSTEAD OF JUST INSIDE. STILL…HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF IMPACTS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS…AND AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES. STILL DISCOUNTING THE NAM AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TWO SEPARATE SURFACE LOW CENTERS. HOWEVER…SHOULD THE NAM VERIFY…THE OVERALL IMPACT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LESS.

    CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW TRACK AND DEPTH IS STILL MODERATE…BUT A LITTLE HIGHER ON THE TIMING. THE 12Z ECMWF…00Z GFS AND 12Z GEM ALL HAVE THE LOW CENTER DUE W OF KAST 00Z FRI. THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUICK-HITTER WITH A 2-3 HR WIND BURST AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE N. BUT…EVEN THOUGH THE DURATION OF THE STRONGEST WIND WILL BE REASONABLY SHORT… SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS SUCH AS DOWNED TREES AND NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES…ARE LIKELY. HOPEFULLY THE 06Z RUNS WILL LEND MORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS.”

    • Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

      NWS point forecast for my place:

      Thursday: Rain, mainly before 4pm. High near 55. Breezy, with a south southeast wind 9 to 14 mph increasing to 19 to 24 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

      Thursday Night: Showers likely, mainly after 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 44. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 23 to 28 mph decreasing to 13 to 18 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 47 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

      We’ll see if the high wind warning verifies. Looks iffy.

  8. Seahawks Fan - East Vancouver says:

    I feel sorry for Mark. For Dave to say his motive was peace, he sure stirred up a lot of hate. I hope you feel good about yourself “Dave”/Rob/whoever you are.

  9. Colder air must be trickling in the temp has been steadily dropping. I just hope my chickens don’t get blown away tomorrow, but if they do, they might convince themselves that they are flying!

  10. Moosieman says:

    Thanks for the update Rob! There are a lot of people and lurkers on here that very much appreciate it!! Tomorrow could be epic!! Let’s all watch it enfold together.

  11. Not sure why I’m bothering to post here…. but…

    8:30 PM Water Vapor Imagery Update
    Amazing. Very healthy. What a beast we’re going to be dealing with. I’m slightly concerned to be honest that we may be dealing with a deeper low than models can grasp at the moment. This low may explode bombing soon. The somewhat concerning part is this is still south of 40 N and in my opinion looks to cross that critical 130 W line just south of 40 N. Movement is east-northeast, but a bit more pronounced northeast turn should begin soon. The current placement is further south than 12z initialized or modeled it. Let’s keep an eye on this VERY CLOSELY.

    WV Loop http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_enhanced+12
    http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/alternative.php?wfo=pqr&area=nw&type=wv&size=4

    • alohabb says:

      gusts estimates????? Please keep posting here…i enjoy the reading

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Thanks Rob. Seems to be south to me too as in the 40N line. Awesome. Hope this is epic and is strongest in 9 years!! El Nino smell vino!!!

    • vernonia1 says:

      thanks Rob…my son works in the East Bay & that whole area is poised to get hit hard

    • Lurkyloo says:

      Rob, I would hope that the reason you’re “bothering” to post here is the fact that many (if not most) of us truly appreciate your insights regarding the weather events that come our way. I hope you don’t let the assclowns* keep you from keeping the rest of us in the loop. Thanks!

      *my new favorite word courtesy of W7

    • GTS1K" says:

      Thanks, Rob…

      ‘Illegitimi non carborundum’ and all that

      Look forward to your continued posting.

  12. turbulence looms large
    hot air mass meets ice cold veins
    human disaster

  13. IDK what’s going on but I’m sick and tired of the back and forth between both sides. The petty arguments need to stop. It’s no fair to the ppl that come here to read about WEATHER.

  14. Tyler Mode says:

    Made it up to 64 here today.

    Warmest temp for me in December ever.

    Peak wind of 30 mph @ 3:38 PM.

    0.53″ of rain.

    Pressure is currently up to 29.54″

    • Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

      Only topped out at 58° at my place; now sitting at 49°, my low for the day so far. Very similar rainfall, though: .54″.

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