We are less than 48 hours from what COULD be a significant wind event in our area and evening models are still in quite a bit of disagreement.
First, if you just want the basics:
- Tonight’s storm moving onto the coastline will not bring strong wind into the valleys, but gusts to 70 mph are likely in the morning hours out there.
- Storm #3 is still forecast to develop and bring gusty south wind to the entire region Thursday.
- We unsure about the strength of the wind and the timing right now, but gusts to at least 40 mph are likely.
- My best guess is we’ll see gusts 45-55 mph in the metro area Thursday midday or afternoon, similar to the October storm, maybe stronger…maybe.
What’s different since I wrote this morning’s post? We have a new run of models in that show just a few changes.
1. The GFS (and, by extension, the UW WRF-GFS) has the low moving a little farther offshore. It is also slower, bringing the wind in 3-5 hours later. More like midday-early afternoon instead of morning.
2. Gradients/wind on those two models are weaker as a result. The WRF-GFS had shown a +8mb gradient EUG-PDX and now is +7. The OTH-AST gradient is now +15mb instead of +19. The wind gust forecast graphic was also weaker. I wouldn’t go with gusts above 60 mph at SLE/EUG/PDX based on these two models.
3. The 00z NAM and GEM are very similar. Both showing a “baggy looking” low moving directly over Portland on the way up to Puget Sound. This would give us a nice surge of 35-45 mph gusts Thursday afternoon, but not much stronger. Here’s the 4pm Thursday view:
The ECMWF would suggest gusts around 50 mph Thursday afternoon west of the Cascades…maybe 50-60 if everything was just right (wrong).
We still have the 12z and 00z models tomorrow…hopefully they will firm things up a bit on track and intensity.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen