Morning model runs of the GFS and GEM both still show a very strong low pressure center racing up the coastline Thursday morning. Check out the two GFS runs for 10am Thursday. These are maps from WeatherBell. The first is the “regular” model, the 2nd is the upgraded version which is still in testing mode and being run in parallel with the operational run for another month.
They are both similar, although the upgrade version is significantly deeper with the low and just slightly farther offshore. Note the wind at 850mb (around 4-5,000′). Near 100 mph southerly wind over our heads! Then check out the GEM (Canadian global model):
A deeper low snuggled right up against Tillamook at the same time. Wow…that’s a huge storm. Now check out the morning ECMWF run. First map from the same time (10am) as those above:
2nd map from 4pm.
…much weaker and “baggier” with the low pressure center. This would just be a windy afternoon with gusts in the 30-45 mph range. So I’m not sold on a big windstorm Thursday morning until I see that Euro come around a bit more.
The UW’s WRF-GFS model, based on the GFS, produces a big windstorm for us. Pressure jumps are strong behind the low…10 millibars in 3 hours at Eugene between 8-11am and a pressure gradient of 16 millibars Eugene-Olympia. Combine that with a fast-moving low and the strong overhead wind; you’ve got gusts 50+ at least in the valley and Portland.
More after the evening runs come out. Hopefully they will pull together a bit or “cancel” a windstorm.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen