Freezing Rain Update

If you live south of Salem in the Willamette Valley, expect some areas of ice on roads tomorrow morning.  That’s because rain will arrive around daybreak, especially from Albany to Eugene.  It will be cold enough in some spots (not all areas) to allow the liquid rain to freeze into a glaze.

Here are my latest thoughts as of 5pm Sunday…

  1. Most of our models are dry in the Portland Metro area all day Monday, keeping all (or almost all) of the rain even south of Salem.
  2. A couple generate very light sprinkles overhead in the morning hours for us.  It may or may not be below freezing at that time.
  3. Much better chance for brief freezing rain from Albany through Corvallis/Eugene around daybreak.

As a result, the NWS has a Freezing Rain advisory for only the central/southern Willamette Valley, not the metro area, for Monday morning.  Even down there it’s possible the freezing on roadways will be real spotty.


Right now I’d assign these chances to Freezing Rain (ice glazing on roads) affecting the morning commute:


There is one more evening run of the models which should help us either totally eliminate any precipitation in the metro area or not.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

8 Responses to Freezing Rain Update

  1. Peak gusts so far
    Corbett 66mph @ 7:08 PM
    Crown Point 86mph @ 10:47 AM.

  2. Myranda says:

    I wish you guys would talk about Sandy. Everytime it says dry Portland etc we always get blasted with either snow or freezing rain.

  3. Thanks for the update, Mark. I agree with your thoughts, and oh, what’s this? Snow flakes on the blog. Nice. Not much else to discuss just cold and windy east of I-205 tonight. As far as beyond Monday we’ll have to see exactly how much the low level cold pool below 2500′ is eroded or moderates. Lee-side troughing 700-850mb only has greater impacts at roughly 4000′ and above. When the system in British Columbia departs eastward the next high pressure area building in behind it will slide down into eastern Washington /Columbia Basin likely renewing easterly flow Tuesday night through??? Who knows could be awhile.

    There should be quite a bit of cold air trapped below that will once again get funneled through the Gorge westward keeping dewpoints low. Today’s 12z WRF 4km PDX Sounding continues to show dewpoints remain in the 20s through Wednesday. I suppose if everything worked out just right we can’t rule out a possible transition event in/near the Gorge early this week until the low-level cold pool is scoured our or southerlies develop at the surface.

    • PurpleHaze says:

      So this isn’t going to be a big warm southerly flow event coming up?

    • I don’t see any southerly winds at the surface until late Wednesday or Thursday…. Unless 00z models tonight show a dramatic change with the warm front lifting much further north than previous runs have shown…. Doubtful

  4. Jason Hougak says:


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