9pm Update: Freezing Rain Stays South of Salem

FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE A NO-SHOW IN THE PORTLAND METRO AREA AND SALEM ON MONDAY

Almost all evening models (except the ECMWF) are in and show rain staying SOUTH OF SALEM tomorrow morning so that’s what we’ll go with.  The are all remarkably similar on the rain band sitting between Salem and Roseburg most of the day.  Note the WRF-GFS shows a big soaking around Eugene, but nothing north of about Albany:

wrf_4pmprecip

There are hints of a few sprinkles far eastside metro area between 4-8am, but at this point (if it occurs at all) it appears to be too little to even produce ice on roads.  Something to keep an eye on for the morning commute out there though.  By far eastside I mean east of Gresham/Damascus/Estacada.  This showed up on the 00z MM5-NAM, HRRR, and our RPM model. Note the colored areas start at .10″

RPM_12KM_Precip_NWOR

Then after 8am or so it’ll should be dry from Salem northward with quite a bit of late afternoon sun.  Actually all day tomorrow looks mainly sunny at Tillamook, Astoria, and Longview!

To reflect the changing forecast, I updated the CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN graphic for the 10pm show:

MarkFreezingRain_IceDetails2

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

45 Responses to 9pm Update: Freezing Rain Stays South of Salem

  1. There was just a little sprickle in Boring. Not enough for issues though.

  2. Chilly day today!

    SLE 38
    PDX 37
    EUG 36

  3. Anyone see today’s CFS for Christmas. Lots of arctic air…

  4. CorbettTez says:

    Are we losing the East wind tonight Mark? Or is it going to hang around for a bit longer?

    • Tyler Mode says:

      It’s at it’s weakest the next few hours, then will pick up again toward morning. It should stick around through Wednesday afternoon then lighten again 🙂

      I know I’m not Mark, but…

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      That works for me. Real windy tomorrow through Wednesday again. I know how much you like that wind ‘Tez!

    • Jake-(Gresham) says:

      Bleh… my lips are cracking like the Sahara desert.

    • runrain says:

      Try jogging along Marine Dr. during this stuff, going east anyway! Much as I like winter weather, I’m looking forward to a Christmas break in the Arizona desert.

    • Boydo3 N. Albany elev. just under 500' says:

      Just come down here for some cold, windless, drizzley, humidity.

    • CorbettTez says:

      Thank you Tyler & Mark! Much appreciated, the wind is our cross to bear out here but it’s much easier if we know about it ahead of time and can plan accordingly. Happy Holidays!! 🙂

  5. Tyler Mode says:

    Clouds now clearing from the north setting us up for another cool night 🙂 We do need some mountain snow though…

  6. WEATHERDAN says:

    35 and cloudy at 12:30 PM. Had a low in Salem of 30 and some light ZR. Now skies starting to lighten. Probably have some black ice with clearing skies tonight. No cold air headed our way anytime soon. Hopefully things change soon. Peace.

  7. Jason Hougak says:

    CPC maps have entire US above average temps. into mid December at least. Even Alaska is above average.

    • Brian Leroy says:

      The last gfs model is showing California getting slammed with one storm after another for next two weeks looks very el nino like but they really need the rain good news for them.

    • oldwxwatcher says:

      NWS long-range forecast for December-January-February also looks very El Nino-ish with precip above average in all the southern states from CA east to FL and temps above average over most of the West.

  8. Was 31 at my place this morning with a glaze of freezing rain. The deck and patio were quite slick. The roads were fine though on the way down.

    Currently SLE is only at 32, I see the NWS has lowered their forecast high to 39.

  9. paulbeugene says:

    Raining in Eugene, temp right around 32-33F, barely any ice on leaves, streets are wet but NO ice on pavement

  10. Jason Hougak says:

    Mark are you seeing a trend in the models developing a cold pool in the gulf next week. Both GFS and ECMFW are showing this feature. Cold air for US is shoved up into Canada and this cold pool develops in the gulf of Alaska.

  11. ChiefWright (Marquam) says:

    Got a very brief sprinkle that froze on exposed hard surfaces about 5 AM. Ground is wet, not ice. Temp now 31 degF and climbing.

  12. Hal in Aims says:

    a little cell popped up about 5:30 between Troutdale and Corbett………went right up 84 and closed Corbett schools and turned 84 into a skating rink….

  13. Jason Hougak says:

    Getting freezing drizzle here in Cascade Foothills. Solid glaze on my truck.

  14. Spacetruckin says:

    Above Estacada 1234ft. freezing rain as of 6:00 am..

  15. Dave in South Salem (500') says:

    Moisture definitely went through here a few minutes ago. It looked like snow but my tired eyes may have tricked me. looks like the moisture model was off. Its 32 though so I expect no ice by day break.

  16. schmit44 says:

    11/30/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:58 at BANDON( 79 ft) & EW3367 Coos Bay(98 ft) & SEVEN MILE CREEK(438 ft) & BROOKINGS(79 ft) & Port Orford(0 ft)
    Low: 48 at Brookings Airpor(459 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:17 at CW0682 Helix(1896 ft) & CW0706 Weston(1916 ft)
    Low: -8 at Meacham (3724 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 31 degrees
    POINT PROM II (33/2 ) (6607 ft )

  17. Boydo3 N. Albany elev. just under 500' says:

    Inversion is beginning to take place. SW wins are developing at 850MB and temps are already going up at that elev. which will eventually erode the low level cold air. But how quickly?
    http://www.santiampassskipatrol.org/wx/weather.htm

    • Yeah, Upper Air chart shows S or W winds aloft from 800-500mb now. That should erode any cold air above 2500′ pretty easily, but I’d suspect the Columbia Basin cold pool will be stubborn. Spokane NWS AFD suggests a 2nd arctic push for northeast Washington which would thicken the cold layer over the Columbia Basin again. I didn’t see that on 00z GFS/ECMWF though. Looks like we just transition slowly and harmlessly from Cold/Dry, to Seasonal/Dry. Borrrrrrrrringggggggg

  18. dharmabum says:

    At least we have the blog-flakes, a nice touch.

  19. MasterNate says:

    Well I hope the southern cascades get a good dumping of snow. They could use it for sure.

  20. Hiram Schoonover says:

    when do you think our best chance for an actual snow storm might be? I work out in the weather, so, it would be nice to know lol.

  21. Dave in South Salem (500') says:

    As long as its not foggy im happy. I’ll probably see the rain talking just south of here.

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