We tied a record high today, broke a warm record low this morning, and will probably break a record high again tomorrow:
Because of the warm weather, travelling conditions are excellent this weekend
Enjoy the warmth because it’ll end quickly this coming weekend.
Maps/models have been interesting the past few days; fraught with forecasting peril. The reason? A split flow with most jet energy going to our south the next week but some northerly flow in the upper atmosphere too. Over the past two days the emphasis has been on a shot of colder air Saturday-Monday moving down from the north and into the Pacific Northwest. It doesn’t last long, because it appears the milder southern portion of the jet will take over again early next week.
There are two reasons the forecast is uncertain in this situation:
1. The interaction between moisture to the south and colder air to the north always raises the possibility of frozen precipitation, mainly in the Gorge, but at times models have shown it almost cold enough in the metro area.
2. Placement and timing of precipitation changes with model runs depending on how much energy from each part of the jet stream affects us most.
As of this evening, it looks like we’ll see a shot of the cold air arrive on Saturday. This will be drier air so not much rain Saturday. Then dry offshore flow kicks in for two days (Sunday and Monday). Get ready for a couple of days of cold east wind. High temps around 40 instead of 60! On Sunday we’ll probably be dry, but then models are bringing moisture over the top of the cold air Monday.
Monday is the day I see a good chance for freezing rain and/or snow in the Gorge. Here in the metro area it remains to be seen if it would be cold enough for freezing rain. Definitely a marginal event, more so than what we saw a couple of weeks ago. Plus we’ll see when/where the moisture shows up. The evening ECMWF doesn’t even give us precipitation Monday!
Another reason to just relax and enjoy Thanksgiving!
I’m working Friday-Sunday and I’ll have a lot more time to see how things are shaping up.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen