Near Record Warm Weather = Good Holiday Driving!

I know lots of you will be driving in the next 6 days and I have good news!

The snow level is going to jump close to 10,000′ the next 3 days and that means EXCELLENT driving conditions across the Pacific Northwest between now and at least Friday.

The beautiful weekend snow on Mt. Hood has changed over to rain at this hour and anything that falls below 6,000′ between now and Friday will be rain…so pray for dry weather to salvage the thin snowpack if you are a skier.

By the way, the record high temps for Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday are 63/61/63 so we won’t break any records (probably), but pretty darn warm with high temps within a few degrees of those numbers.

MarkRoadConditions_I84_5_Passes

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

50 Responses to Near Record Warm Weather = Good Holiday Driving!

  1. Jason Hougak says:

    Winter of the swinging pendulum
    Mild… cold… mild… cold…

  2. Jason Hougak says:

    You can tell that when ever it gets mild WEATHERDAN stumbles out from hibernation. Happy thanksgiving too DAN!

  3. W7ENK says:

    PDX tied today’s record high of 63. If tomorrow’s forecast for 62 verifies, it will beat the old record of 61.

    It was in the mid/upper 60s all through the Columbia Basin today. There is no snow cover over there anymore, it’s all gone. No help to any incoming cold air.

  4. Tyler Mode says:

    About 3.5″ of rain in 12 hours up at Mt. Rainier…this is causing more flooding, though not nearly as bad as 2006.

    Temp at 5,400′ is a way too warm 39 degrees.

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=PVC55&num=72&raw=0

  5. Important 00z runs tonight….
    Model Countdown
    00z NAM in 3 hours 32 minutes
    00z GFS in 5 hours 18 minutes
    00z WRF in 5 hours 25 minutes
    00z GEM in 5 hours 40 minutes
    00z ECMWF in 8 hours

  6. WEATHERDAN says:

    62 and cloudy this afternoon. Nice day for a walk. Time to kick the leaves and to hear the sound of Geese and smell the woodsmoke in the air. Will it be cold enough for snow in a few days? Maybe yes maybe no, But today I will enjoy the nice day that we have. Tomorrow will take care of itself. Happy Thanksgiving everybody. Peace.

  7. 18z NAM is much colder, but have to point out the NAM’s aggressive cold bias…. 18z GFS may follow a similar 500mb solution, but not be quite as cold at 850mb or 1000-500mb thickness….

  8. paulbeugene says:

    A brief cool snap coming this weekend. The models have trended a bit stronger with ridging in Gulf of Alaska, but I would not describe it as a block, and would not use the term arctic blast with the scenario advertised on models.
    That being said, there will a negative 500mb anomaly centered off California, and we could have some sort of overrunning of cool air to get snow or freezing rain at lower elevations across N Oregon, at some point.
    I doubt models will trend much colder yet as we are within 96 hours of the cold trough passage .

  9. We have very similar agreement with 6z/12z GFS, 12z GEM, and 12z UKMET. The last few runs are showing that the offshore block is trying to hold stronger and that a 2nd reinforcement blast is awfully close to digging right down over us on early next week. Right now at face value this is looking very similar to our cold snap we saw back on November 10th. WRF shows a strong PDX-DLS around -10 to -12mb(maybe stronger). Strong temp gradient from roughly Cascade Locks eastward. This model solution could be the case, but there is room for an even colder solution.

    12z ECMWF came in even colder with 850s -8 PDX and very cold Gorge east into Columbia Basin. If it verifies this will be quite a bit colder than the last event early in November. 850s -8c and likely colder 925mb temps plus a raging icy Gorge wind…. Oh and snow cover likely Columbia Basin-eastern Washington won’t be going anywhere which also helps the potential to prolong this…. Cold pool development looks likely too.

    Our last event wasn’t early in November wasn’t as cold as this…. Also, even if we don’t get a 2nd reinforcing shot if the ridge builds over we won’t warm much due to the cold pool/inversion…. I would say the first initial cold shot is looking more confident, but after Sunday, up in the air. We could see a quick hitting blast and then that’s it, but I see the slight potential for this to turn into a prolonged arctic blast with 2-3 reloads. We’ll have to see if 00z runs agree with 12z today, or do they revert back.

  10. High Desert Mat says:

    Jason, why don’t you eat up and I’ll tell ya.

  11. High Desert Mat says:

    Mark+winter=warm bias.

    Split flow+el nino=Marks happiness.

    3000’sl+dry=Leroy and Dans dream.

  12. Prairiedog says:

    I was up in the mountains this morning, 3,500ft south of Estacada cutting some firewood and it was 54f! It was incredibly balmy out with a healthy south wind. Just felt wrong.

  13. Boydo3 N. Albany says:

    So much for an early opening at the ski areas. I see Bachelor has a lift open but it’s raining there too.
    Timberline looks funky.
    http://www.timberlinelodge.com/conditions/

  14. dharmabum says:

    Just for the record, the weather today is unseasonably warm and breezy, but the air is full of bullshit.

  15. High Desert Mat says:

    Bah humbug.

  16. schmit44 says:

    11/24/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:62 at Gold Beach (US 1( 60 ft)
    Low: 52 at COOS BAY (P365)(89 ft) & DW9755 Eugene(377 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:27 at HARL BUTTE(6071 ft)
    Low: 7 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 33 degrees
    DW9301 Klamath F (55/22 ) (4121 ft )
    CRAZYMAN FLAT (44/11) (6100 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.05″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)
    0.80″ at NORTH FORK(3120ft)

  17. What about people coming home on Sunday through the Gorge, Mark? You forgot to mention that!

    • JohnD says:

      Interesting, fair minded input from Pete Parsons. I have always been a fan. Right up there with Mark. Only time will tell.

    • Brian Leroy says:

      I think we can rule out 68/69 it’s almost comical that pete even mention that year we all have a better shot of winning the lotto then that happening.

    • Still – two Columbia Basin arctic air events in the month of November is pretty friggin’ exceptional. Maybe PDX will luck out this time around and get a little more in the way of ZR or pellets or a brief tease of snow.

    • W7ENK says:

      Right now, the sounding forecast for PDX is nearly identical to a couple weeks ago, but with one significant difference. Temperatures are 1-2 degrees warmer.

    • Jake-(Gresham) says:

      The fact that we have a weak El nino in place makes me far less enthusiastic about this winter. We’re probably going to dry out come January – I really wouldn’t be surprised. :/

    • W7ENK says:

      People keep saying we’re in an El Niño. We’re NOT in an En Niño yet…

      Read up and come back to us with your El Niño in another 11 weeks, ‘kay?

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño#Definition

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Actually the central Pacific is in “El Nino conditions”. No, not an event yet, but if what we have right now continues exactly the same, it’ll be considered El Nino when we look back at it.

    • Garron near Washington Square says:

      Jake, I can’t give up hope just yet. The fact that El Nino is being wishy washy and Pete’s post just exclaim anything MIGHT happen this winter. The fact that we’ve had a couple South and East wind storms and a minor cold snap, and it’s not even winter suggest we might wanna wait another month and a half before the “forks in winter” graphic comes out. I’d have said you were right a month ago, but now I’m just waiting and watching as yet another slight chilly spell develop late in the next weekend before my unbelieving eyes. Still, this looks like it could be another disappointing cold spell, but I have hope…

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      “CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5°C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months”

      It’s up to +.9 right now, approaching moderate status, so once they issue their monthly statement, they’ll say we are in El Nino conditions. Good enough for me.

    • W7ENK says:

      Right, exactly. 3 consecutive months at or above +0.5C in the ENSO 3.4 Region. That used to be 5 consecutive months, but I don’t know who, why or when that was changed. Regardless, it’s only been above that threshold for 3 or 4 weeks now. If it’s still there (without dipping below at all) by the end of January, then we can “officially” call it an El Niño. Until then, it’s just a warm anomaly in SSTs.

      Semantics, I know, but they’re important when you’re dealing with science!

  18. Jason Hougak says:

    Cascades, possible snow Sat/ Sun… possible???

    • Brian Leroy says:

      Nws seattle said SL near surface sunday but dry, then why the mention of SL near surface , pointless.

    • W7ENK says:

      Maybe there won’t actually be a SL near the surface? Maybe there will be an ULL near the surface?? Or perhaps the SL will actually come in at the upper levels, but not at the surface???

      TOO MANY WHAT IFS!!! AAAAHHHH!!! 😆

  19. JohnD says:

    Seems like a tease that Mark wouldn’t address aspects of the bigger picture. Whatever. Hope you all have a great holiday week!

  20. oldwxwatcher says:

    First!

    Now what?

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