2pm Update…SO Close to Freezing Rain!

November 13, 2014

All metro area temps are within 2 degrees of freezing at this hour, which is going to cause some issues for the evening commute and overnight on area roads.

PLOT_Temps_Metro

Moisture is still falling from the sky, mainly in liquid form, but plenty of ice pellets mixed in.  This will theoretically come to an end during the evening hours, definitely by midnight.  At that time the whole band of clouds/rain/snow/frz.rain will shift to our south.

Tonight_Forecast

For the evening commute:  Hilly areas are BELOW freezing right now and that won’t change, so the slight bit of solar heating we are getting (even through the clouds) will end at sunset.  That means many roads in the West Hills and other hilly spots may freeze up.  Freeways and highways will remain clear, but be careful elsewhere in the higher elevations.

Overnight:  Several models push the entire band of clouds to the south after midnight.  If so, skies will clear and temperatures will drop.  Any road that is wet in the metro area could freeze for the morning commute.  Of course some will have a chance to dry with the dry east wind blowing, but many will just freeze first.  Allow extra time for the morning commute.

Friday:  Sunny all day!  It’ll be like our little winter event never happened.  High temps in the lower 40s, but as opposed to Wednesday, the wind will just be a bit breezy from the east, not raging.

The forecast went well today here at FOX12, but what a close call.  If the precipitation were a little heavier and temps 2 degrees colder, the NWS forecast could have easily verified.

I did totally miss with the snow forecast out in Washington County though…sorry Forest Grove!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen


Wintry Mix Still On For Today

November 13, 2014

8:30am…

There isn’t going to be a snowstorm in Portland today.

Here is the latest…

  • Warm air has moved in overhead as models showed, bringing the chance for significant sticking snow down to just about zero for most of the metro area.
  • Metro area highways/freeways will remain clear today
  • In the hills there will be some icy roads in spots, mainly before noon
  • A wintry mix will fall all day.  That includes ice pellets, freezing rain (less likely), snow, and just plain rain.
  • Temperatures remain near/above freezing so accumulation of anything will not be on roads, except in and near the Columbia River Gorge
  • There is still a chance it changes back over to snow from Forest Grove to Vernonia, but I’d say just an inch or two is possible now.
  • The NWS has cancelled the Winter Storm Warning for the metro area.
  • RESUME YOUR NORMAL LIVES if you don’t live near/in the Columbia River Gorge

Looks like the trusty mesoscale models have done very well again today, with those soundings showing a warm layer moving in above being accurate.  Go Huskies!

At this moment ODOT road surface temperatures at the 217/26 interchange on the west side and I205/Division on the eastside are only a degree above freezing…a close call!  But with daytime warming (a little) that should keep them from falling below freezing.

I started with ice pellets and snow here at 1,000′ at the west end of the Gorge, but as of 8:30am it’s mostly snow now.  So lots of blowing snow and ice pellets if you’re driving out I-84 this morning.

Here is a nice pic showing a glazing in the hills above Newberg

frzrain_newberg