All the evening models except the ECMWF are in and I don’t see anything to change my mind about tomorrow. The main change was two models being a little drier and kept the heavier stuff to our south. That could mean the Gorge gets less than our current forecast. We’ll see what the ECMWF shows around 10:15pm. These graphics summarize what I’m saying on the evening newscasts:
The National Weather Service has a Winter Storm Watch out for most areas west of the Cascades, although that’ll probably become a warning soon. The Gorge is where the main action is going to be though!
Why am I still not going for big snow? Most models still show a wedge of above freezing air around 3,000-5,000′ tomorrow morning. That would argue for more ice pellets or freezing rain, cutting way down on snow totals.
Keep in mind if models are running just a few degrees too warm up above we have a snowstorm on the way tomorrow! Luckily everyone starts at home tomorrow morning so it’s not like half the population will be trapped at work at 3pm when snow/ice hits. It you wake up at 7am and it’s snowing like crazy…stay home!
I’ll be getting up early tomorrow to see how things are going
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen