9pm Update…Not Much Has Changed

All the evening models except the ECMWF are in and I don’t see anything to change my mind about tomorrow.  The main change was two models being a little drier and kept the heavier stuff to our south.  That could mean the Gorge gets less than our current forecast.  We’ll see what the ECMWF shows around 10:15pm.  These graphics summarize what I’m saying on the evening newscasts:

MarkSnow_TextPanel MarkSnow_TextPanel2  Here’s another version of the same thing:

MarkSnow_PortlandOutlookPercentages2 MarkSnow_PortlandOutlookPercentages

The National Weather Service has a Winter Storm Watch out for most areas west of the Cascades, although that’ll probably become a warning soon.  The Gorge is where the main action is going to be though!MarkWarningsWinter WX MarkWarningsWinter WX2

Why am I still not going for big snow?  Most models still show a wedge of above freezing air around 3,000-5,000′ tomorrow morning.  That would argue for more ice pellets or freezing rain, cutting way down on snow totals.

Keep in mind if models are running just a few degrees too warm up above we have a snowstorm on the way tomorrow!  Luckily everyone starts at home tomorrow morning so it’s not like half the population will be trapped at work at 3pm when snow/ice hits.  It you wake up at 7am and it’s snowing like crazy…stay home!

I’ll be getting up early tomorrow to see how things are going

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

152 Responses to 9pm Update…Not Much Has Changed

  1. paulbeugene says:

    The forecast busted due to lack of sufficient moisture. Although 2000-6000′ temp did get above freezing, there just was not enough precipitation to cool the column above Portland.

    That was result of the low tracking farther south than the models indicated. Looks to me that it came ashore around North Bend, not Florence. It is currently 39F in Florence, 57F in North Bend.

    Temps should have moderated already in south Willamette Valley and they have not yet.

    Trough tracking over inland OR/WA in days 2-3, reinforcing continental or “arctic” air, with any snow over NE Oregon should get some cold temps there this weekend.

    Safe to say the Eugene probably set new record for shortest warm season between freezing rain events (most recent was February).

  2. Peter says:

    Mostly sleet with some snow mixed in now. Down to 34 from about 37 less than an hour ago. If the temperature could drop just a little bit more, this will get interesting.

  3. Aleta says:

    Seeing a lot more snow mix in with the sleet and rain in west Gresham.

  4. Jason Hougak says:

    Definitely a wintery mix, sleet and snow… back and forth and back and forth and back and forth…

  5. Andrew (Beaverton) says:

    PDX has dropped from 36 to 34 in the last 30 minutes…

  6. Andrew (Beaverton) says:

    Much heavier precip downtown now, can hear the ice pellets really smacking the windows.

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