Monthly ECMWF Run

It’s Thursday afternoon so that means another run of the ECMWF for the next month.  The first two weeks are nothing new, showing the ridging remaining over us through the third week of the month.

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA
Just because upper-level heights are above normal doesn’t mean it’ll be dry, it just means that the weather systems that make it here will tend to be weaker and warmer than normal for November.  Not good news for ski areas if this is the case.

The change is in the next two weeks…

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA

Looks like the ridging wants to shift farther west, well offshore.  In fact the position around 150W longitude is favorable for cold air to push down the east side of the ridging and into the Pacific Northwest…that’s interesting.  That is the last week of November and first week of December.  All 4 of these maps look like last winter where we had ridging of some sort nearby for most of the time from November through early February.  We’ll hope that’s not the plan for this winter.

117 Responses to Monthly ECMWF Run

  1. schmit44 says:

    11/7/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:69 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)
    Low: 53 at BROOKINGS(79 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:39 at MT. HOWARD(7910 ft)
    Low: 19 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 34 degrees
    Lorella (64/30 ) (4160 ft )
    KLAMATH NWR (61/27) (4531 ft)
    CROW FLAT (53/19) (5172 ft)

  2. schmit44 says:

    00z GFSx showing mid 20s for a few nights next week at HIO

  3. dothgrin says:

    It has been an odd year, so why not have an early season cold spell and a quick one or two inch snowfall? To the veterans out there, even though the super low is up in Alaska, what might the strength of that low possibly do to complicate matters even further?

  4. Jason Hougak says:

    Hmm, that was suppose to post the cop from cloudy with a chance of meatballs but apparently I cannot insert images from my iPhone.

  5. Jason Hougak says:

    NWS discussion is also mentioning it next week but the forecast isn’t.
    ” You wanna play hard ball, I’m game!”
    Snow before frost…???

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