Monthly ECMWF Run

November 6, 2014

It’s Thursday afternoon so that means another run of the ECMWF for the next month.  The first two weeks are nothing new, showing the ridging remaining over us through the third week of the month.

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA
Just because upper-level heights are above normal doesn’t mean it’ll be dry, it just means that the weather systems that make it here will tend to be weaker and warmer than normal for November.  Not good news for ski areas if this is the case.

The change is in the next two weeks…

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA

Looks like the ridging wants to shift farther west, well offshore.  In fact the position around 150W longitude is favorable for cold air to push down the east side of the ridging and into the Pacific Northwest…that’s interesting.  That is the last week of November and first week of December.  All 4 of these maps look like last winter where we had ridging of some sort nearby for most of the time from November through early February.  We’ll hope that’s not the plan for this winter.