Mild & Drier First Half of November

6pm Monday…

The screaming message on weather models/maps for the next 7-14 days is that we’re going to see a big slowdown in the weather.  An upper-level ridge of one sort or another, or split-flow, will dominate the western part of the USA for most/all of the first half of November.  That includes us of course.  The eastern USA will be unusually cold at the same time.  Sound familiar?  This is what we saw during a good chunk of last winter.  7Day_PulloutScene6

Now does that mean the ski season is “over” before it started?  Of course not.  This may be a transient pattern and we have the best Thanksgiving to Valentine’s Day ever recorded up there…we don’t know.  That said, it’s pretty obvious this will not be a ski season that starts unusually early.  Note the ECMWF meteogram shows little/no rain for a week starting this coming Thursday evening and what does fall will be mainly rain.  Snow levels the rest of this week are mainly at/above 8,000′:

ecm_meteogram

The GFS is similar: gfs_meteo

Not totally dry, but quite a bit different from the past 3+ weeks.

Last night’s run of the ECMWF shed a little more light on how long this pattern COULD last.  It implies the ridging along the West Coast will stick around for about 3 weeks.  Here are the Week 1, 2, & 3 500mb ensemble anomaly maps:

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA

500za_week3_bg_NA

The ridge is still there from the 16th through 23rd of the month.  But then a slight change just beyond…

500za_week4_bg_NA

It’s not a return to a real wet pattern, but not a big ridge either.  Could be a cooler pattern where we get weaker/colder systems coming down from the northwest.  We’ll see.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

123 Responses to Mild & Drier First Half of November

  1. Jason Hougak says:

    Coming This Winter
    Stubborn high pressure sets up to the west again giving is same boring weather as most of last winter, split jet stream bringing some relief to California. Cold Alberta high builds in the Canadian prairie and sets up shop pushing the ridge over the Pacific further west allowing the cold northern jet to sag south. Arctic air infiltrates through the Frasier and Columbia Basin filling Puget Sound and Willette Valley with 20 degree temps and snow showers. Southern branch buckles north to send storms up from California to merge over Willamete Valley depositing record snow smashing any record that stood before. After that snowstorm all the crazy Portlandians moved to warmer climates!

  2. Jason Hougak says:

    Not only exciting weather action today but a boxing match in the blog room. Seriously it’s all for fun. It’s funny we have never met but we all pick sides based on how we answer each other or what our thoughts are. I have only personally met the big cheif of this blog and he knows how Crazy I Enjoy Snow!
    Lots of laughs you guys… nobody take this stuff personal. Keep up the humor and weather watching…
    “You could get a good look at your butcher…”

    • dharmabum says:

      Tommy Boy

      An incompetent, immature, and dimwitted heir to an auto parts factory must save the business to keep it out of the hands of his new, con-artist relatives and big business.

      You could use some of these same adjectives for us in the “blog room”!

      I think we need an Arctic blast soon.

    • Jason Hougak says:

      Great, I was wondering who would catch that!

  3. I’m sure everyone has been tracking ex-super Typhoon Nuri and how models forecast it to become the deepest mid-latitude cyclone in history for this region.

    The remnant core of Super Typhoon Nuri becomes extra tropical, then eventually into a mid-latitude Cyclone just off the Kamchatka Peninsula. Due to the tropical energy, moisture, a cold low, and 200-220mph jet stream all phasing together it deepens extremely rapidly going from Cyclogenesis stage to Bombogenesis(More than 24mb deepening over a 24 hour period)If models are correct it will probably become the strongest non-Tropical storm system in the last 20-30 years (at least) poised to hit the western Aleutians in about 2 days. Record lowest sea-level barometric pressure at a land-fast US station is 927mb at Dutch Harbor, AK on Oct 25, 1977.

    If current models verify we’ll be seeing a new all-time barometric pressure reading. This storm is going to look amazing on Satellite Imagery, and definitely one you’ll want to save images of. I hope for the sake of Meteorological Records that it does end up lower than 929mb. These kind of massive anomalous storms often lead to dramatic, large scale pattern changes, an extreme buckling of the jet stream with a highly amplified pattern occurring where a sharp, amplified ridge is pumped up ahead of it and a well defined deep trough dipping down the backside.

    This storm is what will cause the early season strong arctic blast for the Plains, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes region, and northeastern U.S. That may as well lead to a sharp cold front blasting through the south plains too. I mentioned Bombogenesis and that is about to occur. In fact, check out the latest 18z NCEP/NWS Pacific Surface Display chart. It shows this low is forecast to deepen a staggering 52mb over a 24 hour period! That is incredibly explosive deepening. Wow. Then eventually it peaks bottoming out somewhere around 916-928mb. That’s simply amazing for a mid-latitude cyclone!

    • bonine4336 says:

      Mark- What is the latest in the autumn season where our first night in the 30’s occurs? No one probably tracks that but it would be intersting to know. Especially considering the insane mildness of the last three months. I know our latest freeze date is Dec. 31 two years ago.

    • Jason Hougak says:

      Great report Rob
      I enjoy record storms, too bad it’s not headed to us… or is it?

  4. Mat,

    18z was the coldest run yet with a pretty good cold pool -6c 925mb, -4c 850mb, and temps not getting out of the 30s.

    Moses Lake
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kmwh

    • jimbo says:

      Thanks Rob. Enjoy everyone’s insights this time of year. Much more important stuff in the world to get upset about. Please everyone be respectful

  5. David B. says:

    The question is how mild and sunny it will be here near sea level. It’s the time of year that persistent high pressure means the I-word often starts coming into play.

    Well, it should be sunny and mild in the foothills, anyhow.

  6. dharmabum says:

    An exceptional sunrise this morning ahead of the front. Rain just starting to fall, no wind here.

  7. Jason Hougak says:

    NWS posted a high wind watch for north coast / coast range but that has changed. Looks like that has all moved further north into Washington. Puget Sound under a wind advisory.
    It is suppose to get breezy today, we will see.

    • David B. says:

      I’m in the Puget Sound area. It REALLY poured rain earlier this morning, one of the hardest rainfalls I’ve seen in this part of the woods, and the clouds were really dark and gloomy. But it didn’t last, now it’s windy with sunbreaks.

    • Yeah, the low ended up developing further outside 130 W, so it’s northward trek began too soon with it moving into central-northern Vancouver Island. Based on 12z WRF isobars looked pretty tight for the north Washington Coast and north interior of Washington.

  8. W7ENK says:

    Not sure how we went from “There’s a windstorm coming overnight” to “Dense fog through 6am”, but whatever…

    DENSE FOG ADVISORY
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    1234 AM PST THU NOV 6 2014

    http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/19249936

    • Tyler Mode says:

      Whoa, who said anything about a windstorm???

    • W7ENK says:

      Scroll down a bit, Tyler. I posted the NWS advisory yesterday morning.

      Of course “windstorm” was an exaggeration, but it’s funny how they can’t even get it right less than 24 hours out…

    • Settle down….
      NWS was weighing heavily the ECMWF run which showed a deeper low further south into Washington/Puget Sound. That scenario would have given the Coast a solid High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory 40-50mph for the Willamette Valley/PDX-VUO metro area. BUT as we often see happen the low developed a bit too soon inside 135 W and re-curved northward into Vancouver Island.

    • W7ENK says:

      No one needs settling, we’re all fine, but thanks for your concern.

    • Larry says:

      So you’re saying, then, that they initialized the low in the wrong position?

    • ECMWF was closer on depth, but WRF/NAM did better handling the placement and track verifying nicely as 00z runs showed last night. Nice try with the poking at me too. Larry, it’s real sad to see you’re right there along with them now. Pathetic

    • Everyone, including Mark knows the “the low initialized in the wrong spot” comment is a jab at me. A stupid, immature, and pathetic attempt at that. Are we going to discuss weather, or?

    • W7ENK says:

      Oh, for God’s sake, PLEEEEEEASE don’t start into this crap, AGAIN… I just know I’m the one who’s going to catch all the blame for it. 😦

    • Larry says:

      So this:
      “BUT as we often see happen the low developed a bit too soon inside 135 W and re-curved northward into Vancouver Island.”
      isn’t you saying, “they initialized the low in the wrong place”? It was an honest question. No need to pull the Internet Tough Guy act and call people names. Seriously, man, grow up.

    • schmit44 says:

      Swarm of showers on radar

    • Seriously, cut the crap. We all know exactly what is going on here. This is how pathetic you all are. I said a handful of times maybe 4-5 years ago? About how if the low were initialized wrong it could affect the track by 50 miles or so. Which, in all honestly isn’t inaccurate. We often see models initialize differently, handle depth and track differently too. How sad and pathetic you’re so desperate to pick at me and start problems that you’d continuously bring that up.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Now now girls.

      The low went north from where it was projected, big deal. Rob was simply stating the obvious and you guys cant leave him alone. At least Rob is educated enough to post analysis and model pics to back up his posts. Lets get back to weather shall we?

      Rob, hows that cold pool looking for next week in the basin today? Still looking likely for some cool east winds?

    • W7ENK says:

      No Rob, you don’t get to come on here, guns blazing, poking people in the eye for no reason by telling us to “settle down”, deliberately elicit a response and then spin the whole thing to make yourself look like the victim. Talk about “same old crap”, YOU just knock it off! I said nothing to you, you chimed in on my post throwing grenades, and now you’re acting a fool. No one falls for your routine anymore, Rob. NO ONE!

      LEAVE IT!!

    • Larry says:

      I know you’re not going to want to accept this, but here goes.
      You said the low curved north of where it was initially supposed to. I WAS EFFING AGREEING WITH YOU. I know, difficult concept to grasp, someone looking at the map and saying they agreed. But you’d rather pull this name calling pity party everytime someone replies to a post. You know what, I’m done with you. Don’t reply to anything I post ever again or I’ll throw an effing temper tantrum and cry to Mark. Mark, go ahead and put me on moderation, I post here so little it really isn’t gonna matter at this point.

    • W7ENK says:

      I don’t get why all this BS stems from me trying to make one innocuous little comment about a NWS forecasting error. Why?

      Oh, but I’m the bad guy. I’m the one that started it. I’m the one that… whatever.

      Now watch, one of these other “lurks in the shadows” a-holes will try to put me in my place… I’ll just be sitting here waiting.

    • gidrons says:

      As long as I’ve been watching, the models have had a hard time with the track of deepening lows. I think a little bit of error on the cyclogenesis makes a big difference on how far north it turns.
      How do you get pictures to show up in your posts?

    • Mat, yeah, no kidding. How ridiculous.

      Gidrons, yep, no doubt about it.

    • Larry says:

      gidron, just paste the url to an image and it just shows up.

  9. schmit44 says:

    11/5/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:75 at DW0069 Ferndale( 840 ft)
    Low: 58 at EW1135 Yachats1(32 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:41 at HARL BUTTE(6071 ft)
    Low: 25 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 40 degrees
    Bly (OR 140 MP 5 (69/29 ) (4350 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.66″ at DW6052 Mosier(1375ft)
    0.62″ at K7ZQU-7 Santiam(4790ft)
    0.57″ at Meacham(3724ft)
    0.46″ at EW1556 Maupin(1910ft)
    0.42″ at CW3808 Enterpris(3927ft)

  10. Jason Hougak says:

    Answer if I left the watchtower pamphlet on dharmabum’s porch,
    NO… but I did stay at a holiday inn last night!

  11. Jason Hougak says:

    BTW the coho in Eagle Creek (Clackamas tributary) are dark not bright due to waiting at the mouth for the creek to rise over the past month and a half. What a shame, they were stacked like cord wood and had lock jaw due to the pressure. If you hook one it’d be great to smoke but not so good for the table.

    • dharmabum says:

      Not really a shame, me thinks it’s all part of the natural cycle of life. If it’s no good for the table I wouldn’t waste time and effort smokin’ the darn thing. (:{)

  12. Jason Hougak says:

    Dharmabum now I think you like to stir the pot with a remark like that below, I have no idea who you are?
    I post my name because I don’t need to hide behind some mask, but totally agree with you how awesome and magnificent each season is!
    Rob I hope your wrong about your ski season prediction, however I’ll take it if we get hammered with snow til April. I’d say summer but that start a bunch of negative remarks, so April would be okay.

    • dharmabum says:

      The “guy upstairs” will bring on the snow when he is good and ready. He really does have “your” best interests at heart. Pray tell when the cold snowy weather comes.

  13. Dave_in_Troutdale says:

    Deja Vu???

    This year is starting out a lot like last year did. The Midwest sure was cold and nasty, but as for the PNW, just mild and boring. And then it continued on and on and on and on.

    • W7ENK says:

      I dunno…

      I thought the rainy season starting at the end of August last year was kinda cool. Stark contrast to this year.

      I thought –10F in Eugene at the beginning of December last winter was pretty cool.

      I thought the 13 inches of snow I got in February last winter was pretty cool.

    • dharmabum says:

      Boring weather???? Guess you haven’t been out to enjoy this splendid fall weather with warm days and nights. Beautiful sunset this evening, brilliant fall colors, and Mt. Hood was blanketed in snow a few days ago! Wow, I’m lovin’ this season with a river full of bright Coho’s this last month!

    • runrain says:

      Probably the best sunset of 2014 tonight. And outstandingly comfortable weather to enjoy it in too!

  14. 12z WRF was even more impressive with a bigger chunk of modified arctic air slipping west of the Rockies. The PDX-DLS gradient peaks around -10mb, so the first strong and chilly east wind of this Fall may be on the way.

    Check out the Extracted Data for Moses Lake, Washington. It spells things out very clearly. Note how 925mb temps drop below 0c and remain that way for a good period of time. 850mb temps also nosedive.

    Could the first Columbia Basin cold pool of the season be on the way? If this verifies, possibly. Due to this dry continental air widespread frost and freezes look very possible in wind sheltered areas.

  15. paulbeugene says:

    Models may trending toward the PacNW being indirectly under influence of impressive glob of arctic air headed E of Rockies next week, in that there should be some offshore flow, drying of airmass and good radiational conditions that should give the Willamette Valley some frost..in outlying areas at least.
    At this point, there is no suggestion of arctic air W of Rockies.

    F R O S

  16. W7ENK says:

    WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBILITY
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    326 AM PST WED NOV 5 2014

    http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/19246934

    • Mark says:

      Any chance this amplifying weather pattern shaping up will either retrograde and send cold air our way, or will we remain the mild child?

  17. 00z WRF shows the first chilly air mass of Fall into the Columbia Basin with a strong PDX-DLS gradient. Nice. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014110500/images_d2/slp.159.0000.gif

    00z ECWMF seems to slide the cold air a bit further east and overall it was an awful run if you like interesting or exciting weather for the PNW.

  18. schmit44 says:

    11/4/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:68 at HEPP( 311 ft) & CW9205 Lexington(1558 ft)
    Low: 57 at WYETH(102 ft) & JUNIPR(359 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:38 at WOLF CREEK(5699 ft) & CW7477 Lostine(7002 ft) & Timberline Lodge(7001 ft) & Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft) & POINT PROM II(6607 ft)
    Low: 26 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 26 degrees
    Worden (57/31 ) (4080 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.83″ at YELLOWSTONE MTN.(3080ft)
    1.80″ at NORTH FORK(3120ft)
    1.60″ at BLAZED ALDER(3650ft)
    1.57″ at Mount Hood Meado(5249ft)
    1.30″ at MT HOOD TEST SIT(5400ft)
    1.29″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)
    1.14″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)

  19. Boydo3 N. Albany says:

    Ten day ECMWF seems to go where it left off last winter…the upper mid-west and great lakes area are already getting the cold northerly flow. Maybe a repeat of the big freeze over on the lakes?

  20. Jason Hougak says:

    NWS had 0.5″-0.75″ for precipitation amounts up here, my wife said it was mostly dry all day. If they cannot get a day right ,how can we guess what winter will bring?

    • Tyler Mode says:

      I highly recommend you start making your own forecasts if theirs can’t be trusted. No sense complaining about a forecast you’re not required to trust.

    • Tyler Mode says:

      That being said, I recorded 0.51″ today…totally falls within that forecast.

    • Jason Hougak says:

      Most of that rain went into Washington

    • Me and Tyler both live in Washington. 0.38″ here since midnight. 0.48″ the past 24 hours.

    • Jason Hougak says:

      The forecast called for 0.5″-0.75″ during the day, either that front came in the night before and by morning it was all said and done here in the oregon cascade foothills or it went further north which apparently it did according to Mike and Tyler.
      My point is that even daily weather can be hard to pin point, there is no control to weather other that which is given by the good Lord. So long range forecast are even more unreliable. So many factors effect weather patterns.
      Remember that this stuff is fun to blog about and for us all to read and contemplate.

    • dharmabum says:

      Was that you that left a copy of the “Watchtower” on my porch?

      • Mark says:

        When you examine the GFS maps out two weeks, you see a stark contrast of extreme cold east of the divide and unusual warmth west. I fail to understand how you see a chilly air mass seeping west, unless these models are wrong. The confidence level on their accuracy is 5 out of 5.

  21. Jason Hougak says:

    This is a weather blog for those who are weather enthusiasts who enjoy sharing comments and enjoying… weather, there is no bullying happening. I love bad weather and was mostly hibernating all summer long… I mean who enjoys reading, it was 60 this morning with sun and with a high of 85 again and again and again. Bring on natures furry!!! It’s winter weather time… ” Let’s get ready to rumble………..”

  22. High Desert Mat says:

    Can Mark or anyone elaborate on the fireball in the sky that was seen last night from Georgia to Idaho? Saw a brief article from AMS about it earlier. I’m thinking a meteor but am curious to size and landfall etc. Thanks guys

  23. marinersfan85 says:

    The dreaded Greenland block is settling into place. Here comes another lame winter.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Its early yet. I wouldn’t count on any pattern getting locked into place yet, just hoping we get another high pressure ridge out to our west over the Pacific like last winter since we do have the higher SST’s over there. I hope they can induce it.

  24. Ben T says:

    Out from my posting slumber. Yeah, we had most of our snow in just a couple of days last year. I see no reason why we can’t have a nice winter again.

    Bring on the snow!

  25. schmit44 says:

    NOVEMBER 2014 WEATHER CONTEST ENTRY FORM
    I will allow people the enter through this evening November 4th
    http://www.directpaintsaleswa.com/NOV2014/add.php

    Karl Bonner won the October weather contest.

  26. Dean Myerson says:

    Seems like it it all or nothing. Either we get weeks of those horrible winter inversions (I’m in the Gorge, where they are worse) or it rains almost every day. I don’t want endless boring weather, but I like some sunny days mixed with my rain and snow.

  27. schmit44 says:

    11/3/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:65 at AGNESS2( 247 ft) & RED MOUND(1753 ft) & ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft)
    Low: 56 at LINCON Lincoln C(187 ft) & DW7930 Seaside(7 ft) & DW1265 Newport(164 ft) & EW1135 Yachats1(32 ft) & W7KKE-3 Road’s E(89 ft) & DW2405 Tierra De(13 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:33 at HARL BUTTE(6071 ft)
    Low: 24 at Baker Valley (3420 ft ) & LAKEVIEW (4770 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 28 degrees
    Lorella (54/26 ) (4160 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.68″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)
    1.60″ at NORTH FORK(3120ft)
    1.47″ at CEDAR(2220ft)
    1.30″ at SOUTH FORK BULL(2630ft)
    1.25″ at YELLOWSTONE MTN.(3080ft)
    1.08″ at PACCTY Pacific C(253ft)
    1.06″ at MEARES Cape Mear(1421ft)

  28. High Desert Mat says:

    Sounds eerily similar to Nov. ’08. Ridge, split flow, no snow in mountains, and warmish temps. I just read the archives from this blog and I hope we repeat that year again as we all know what happened in Dec of that year.

    • Jason Hougak says:

      Amen to that brother!
      We had almost 100″ of snowfall that winter. I had a baby daughter who couldn’t even play in the snow yet. I skied and snowboarded at home. My road was the ski slope. It was Heavenly!!!

    • Brian Leroy says:

      08 was a la nina winter were currently in a weak el nino so it’s highly unlikely a repeat of Dec 08 will happen again and that was only 6 years ago plus it’ been on of the warmest years on record I don’t see any snow this fall/winter season it’s just to damn warm.

    • chris s says:

      Brian, we arent in a el nino yet, we are still enso neutral. Even if we do enter into a weak to moderate el nino doesnt mean its too warm to snow or get cold here, thats not how it works. Some of our best snows here in the valley have come during el nino years if I am not mistaken. Mother nature will do her thing, regardless what term we throw at it.

    • Brian Leroy says:

      3.4 region is 0.6 on enso update Monday which is borderline or weak el nino and up here in seattle area we see little to no snow during MOST

    • Brian Leroy says:

      Typo, anyways I was trying to say during MOST el nino winters.

    • chris s says:

      Yes, but it has to remain at that level or above for 3 consecutive months for it to be classified as el nino. While that may happen, we still can get snow down here in the willamette valley during those types of winter.

  29. paulbeugene says:

    The 00z Euro run has quite a cold arctic airmass headed over the northern Great Plains, east of the Rockies, with 850mb temps -18C, quite cold for this time of the year, on Nov 11. Comparing that to the run done on 12Z yesterday, that is quite a westward shift. Don’t know if this is typhoon induced chaos in model output but the we may not be that far off from having first frost in Willamette Valley.

  30. Mark says:

    I hate to sound naive, but what is a death ridge? A western movie?

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      A strong upper-level ridge right over the top of us, giving us inversions/east wind in winter or extremely hot weather in summer.

    • I like my death ridges to come during the in-between seasons when you have both decent solar energy AND substantial time for nighttime cooling.

    • sparkyschick says:

      You’re not naive, Mark – I still didn’t really know what it was and I’ve been following this blog for years. I just know it’s usually bad!

  31. Jason Hougak says:

    I was quiet all summer long, now it’s time to enjoy weather action, not endless days of same old sun up and sun down. I do enjoy summer but winter is for the true weather enthusiast.

  32. Jason Hougak says:

    You want boring weather move to Arizona during winter like the other snowbirds!
    Sunny and 60-70’s down there
    Let us enjoy the endless rain storms, freak wind and snowstorms. Last winter was a joke with all of you weather bloggers complaining about… Weather! What a joke

  33. Brian Leroy says:

    Today’s enso update shows el nino getting stronger and should continue, I think this is the beginning of our dry mild winter, we had at lest two arctic outbreaks and snow last season so were due for a quiet winter and it’s been 4 years since the last el nino also over due as well, sun and 65 in the dead of winter would be a nice change for once unlike last year’s cold and snow.

    • The Bad Forecaster says:

      Brian, more often than not El Nino leads to a nasty fire season the next summer because not enough snow falls in the mountains. If the El Nino is weak like NOAA thinks it will be then the chances of that happening badly are not great. Last year was a neutral year, and even though PDX got snow last year it was not a bumper crop per say for everyone as far as getting snow was concerned. It surely was not all that cold either. Interestingly when it doesn’t rain around here I find that I can still get plenty done around here in good old fashioned 40 and 50 degree weather. I am usually not ready for 60ish like temperatures at least until about April. With all this said, it is obvious my favorite season is winter. I have surely not had an interesting November as far as weather is concerned up here in Tacoma since 2010 when I had 5.8 inches of snowfall and even 5.2 inches all in one day. 🙂

    • Benjamin (West Salem) says:

      Actually except for the two arctic events, and I’ll admit that especially for the southern valley they both were fairly historic. That those aside, last year was an incredibly boring year that brought very little snowfall to the mountains. The winter of 12/13 ended up being fairly quiet as well. So I’m not sure I would say that we are due for a boring or “quiet” winter, but that’s just my opinion, and to each their own… 🙂

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Last winter was 10 days of fun (split between early December and early-mid February). Other than that it was far deader than normal. In fact we were in drought conditions until February.

  34. Boydo3 N. Albany says:

    Could this be the year of the latest (first) frost of the season?

  35. Eugene Dave says:

    November is easily our crappiest weather month. Almost no chance for low elevation snow, not enough snow in the mountains to play, our wettest month, almost impossible to get warm sunny weather, tons of fog, and of course frequent death ridges.

    I need a drink.

  36. MasterNate says:

    We seem to always go through extended split flows or ridging at some point during the winter, so I am happy to get it out of the way early when our snow chances are low. Don’t want to waste prime time mid to late winter opportunities!

  37. The Bad Forecaster says:

    Well, this is good. Get the dry and boring weather out of the way so we can set up for something a lot better perhaps for Thanksgiving. I am all more for having a cooler Thanksgiving instead of one that is pushing 60 degrees or at 60 degrees. I like to feel the true seasonal weather of the season I guess.

    I guess I have to believe this forecast because after all it is the ECMWF saying so and not the GFS. 🙂

  38. JERAT416 says:

    If nothing else, a bit more dry means easier to rake leaves for those who need to. As Mark said, no reason to worry about the ski season. Even last winter we saw it rebound from bad to great in a week. Can’t wait for snow!

    • chris s says:

      Fyi the ski season last year was anything but great. It was terrible for the lower resorts, and fairly bad for the rest.

  39. MasterNate says:

    Does this mean wetter for mid and southern Cal? Hope so.

  40. Jason Hougak says:

    The beasty boyz put it… ” No sleep til Brooklyn!”
    But I’d put it ” No break til summer!”

  41. W7ENK says:

    The rain is nice, but a break would be nice also as well!

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