The screaming message on weather models/maps for the next 7-14 days is that we’re going to see a big slowdown in the weather. An upper-level ridge of one sort or another, or split-flow, will dominate the western part of the USA for most/all of the first half of November. That includes us of course. The eastern USA will be unusually cold at the same time. Sound familiar? This is what we saw during a good chunk of last winter.
Now does that mean the ski season is “over” before it started? Of course not. This may be a transient pattern and we have the best Thanksgiving to Valentine’s Day ever recorded up there…we don’t know. That said, it’s pretty obvious this will not be a ski season that starts unusually early. Note the ECMWF meteogram shows little/no rain for a week starting this coming Thursday evening and what does fall will be mainly rain. Snow levels the rest of this week are mainly at/above 8,000′:
Not totally dry, but quite a bit different from the past 3+ weeks.
Last night’s run of the ECMWF shed a little more light on how long this pattern COULD last. It implies the ridging along the West Coast will stick around for about 3 weeks. Here are the Week 1, 2, & 3 500mb ensemble anomaly maps:
The ridge is still there from the 16th through 23rd of the month. But then a slight change just beyond…
It’s not a return to a real wet pattern, but not a big ridge either. Could be a cooler pattern where we get weaker/colder systems coming down from the northwest. We’ll see.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen