Welcome To November! Warmest October On Record

October 2014 was the warmest October we’ve ever seen here in Portland.  The records at PDX go back to 1940, so that’s quite a long time.  The average temperature was 60.1 degrees, which totally blew away the 2nd warmest back in 1952.

Of course we also had our warmest August & September too, so this late summer/early fall period has been the warmest on record too.  You can see the temperatures well above normal almost the entire month. pdxtemps Notice the low temperatures were only at/below normal the first couple days of the month.  We’ve had night after night of temperatures in the 50s when it would normally be in the 40s or even some 30s.  That ended this morning!  Looks the low temperature finally made it down into the lower 40s this morning…for a few brief days we’ll be around normal.

But what’s ahead?  More of the same…above average temperatures, especially in the higher elevations.  Over the next two weeks models are in agreement that ridging and/or weak split flow will be the rule.  That does not mean it’ll be dry, but upper-level heights are going to be above normal.  That’ll weaken weather systems and the ones that make it through will be a little warmer than normal for this time of year.  Not a big block in the atmosphere either, just warmer than average up above.  I sure don’t see a great snowpack building in the Cascades the first part of the month if these maps are correct.  Here is the 500mb anomaly chart from the GFS and ECMWF for 8 days from now:

ecm8day gfs8day

and 15 days out…similar pattern

ecm15day gfs16day

If this is the case, then much of what falls out of the sky will be rain at pass elevations for the next week or two, with some snow at times making it down to 5,000 to 6,000.  But even at those elevations there would be rain at times too.  Wednesday night’s 30 day run of the ECMWF implied this pattern would continue through about the 3rd week of the month,

500za_week3_bg_NA

then cooler for the 4th week.

500za_week4_bg_NA

We’ll see.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

40 Responses to Welcome To November! Warmest October On Record

  1. High Desert Mat says:

    Hey Mark, why did you take the kgw 7 day forecast off your weather page? I’m only seeing kptv and koins.

    And please give us your first guess on first snowfall in PDX for this winter.

  2. schmit44 says:

    11/2/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:64 at CW5925 Coos Bay( 49 ft) & RED MOUND(1753 ft) & DW0069 Ferndale(840 ft) & ECHO(683 ft) & JUNIPR(359 ft)
    Low: 52 at HEPP(311 ft) & RUFUS(185 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:25 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 16 at KIRK (4519 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 32 degrees
    KLAMATH NWR (50/18 ) (4531 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.67″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)
    1.40″ at SOUTH FORK BULL(2630ft)
    1.26″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)
    1.20″ at CEDAR(2220ft)
    1.20″ at MT HOOD TEST SIT(5400ft)
    1.20″ at NORTH FORK(3120ft)
    1.16″ at PACCTY Pacific C(253ft)
    1.10″ at MEARES Cape Mear(1421ft)
    1.07″ at OCNSID Oceanside(22ft)

  3. Jason Hougak says:

    Good rain shadow effect showing up on radar this evening. Been picking up steady rain most of the afternoon and into the evening.
    And yes coffee is still flowing…

  4. runrain says:

    Mostly dry running along the river this morning.The Willamette is still way down, but Johnson Creek is up and running nicely now. And there are huge amounts of homeless people camped alongside the river just south of the Ross Island Bridge.

  5. MasterNate says:

    The 12z sure looks dry and mild after the middle of this week.

  6. Jason Hougak says:

    Was fall 49′ and winter 49′-50′ a normal winter pattern or El Niño or La Niña? Ovtober 1949 was the coldest ever, November 1949 was the warmest ever, January 1950 was the coldest ever and February the 3rd coldest ever. What a fall/ winter!

  7. Jason Hougak says:

    Quite a year for smashing records of all kinds, especially for October. Let’s break some now for cold and snow!

  8. Jason Hougak says:

    Last day for discounted fusion pass so The Bowl and T-Line @ $499.00.

  9. Jeff Raetz says:

    http://classic.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KORCLACK9

    Averages\Extremes for the month of October 2014


    Average temperature = 58.5°F (Warmest October on Record)
    Average humidity = 85%
    Average dewpoint = 53.1°F
    Average barometer = 29.936 in.
    Average windspeed = 0.2 mph
    Average gustspeed = 0.7 mph
    Average direction = 96° ( E )
    Rainfall for month = 7.95 in. (Highest Rainfall for October on Record) (Average is 4.07”)
    Rainfall for year = 39.262 in. (Average time of the year is 30.76”)
    Maximum rain per minute = 0.060 in on day 23 at time 13:41
    Maximum temperature = 87.5°F on day 06 at time 16:15 (Warmest October temp on Record)
    Minimum temperature = 43.1°F on day 02 at time 07:16
    Maximum humidity = 100% on day 31 at time 00:00
    Minimum humidity = 24% on day 03 at time 15:32
    Maximum dewpoint = 64.0°F on day 07 at time 14:32
    Minimum dewpoint = 42.0°F on day 02 at time 7:16
    Maximum pressure = 30.28 in. on day 12 at time 07:25
    Minimum pressure = 29.37 in. on day 25 at time 15:00
    Maximum windspeed = 9.2 mph from 225°( SW) on day 25 at time 16:32
    Maximum gust speed = 32.2 mph from 135°( SE) on day 25 at time 16:59 (Strongest wind gust for October on Record)
    Maximum heat index = 87.5°F on day 06 at time 16:15

    Avg daily max temp :69.8°F
    Avg daily min temp :50.0°F
    Total windrun = 115.5miles

    Record low wind chill temperature = 43.2 on day 02 at time 07:15
    Record daily rain = 1.51” on day 22
    Record rain in 1 hour = 0.58” on day 23 at time 14:32
    Warmest day (6am to 6pm) = 72.0 on day 06
    Coldest night (6pm to 6am) = 46.9 on day 27
    Coldest day (6am to 6pm) = 52.3 on day 26
    Warmest night (6pm to 6am) = 65.3 on day 07


    Daily rain totals


    00.41 in. on day 11
    00.01 in. on day 12
    00.05 in. on day 13
    00.25 in. on day 14
    00.39 in. on day 15
    00.49 in. on day 17
    00.04 in. on day 18
    00.40 in. on day 20
    00.08 in. on day 21
    01.51 in. on day 22
    00.95 in. on day 23
    00.18 in. on day 24
    00.17 in. on day 25
    00.39 in. on day 26
    00.01 in. on day 27
    00.52 in. on day 28
    00.52 in. on day 29
    00.82 in. on day 30
    00.76 in. on day 31

    Records since October 2008

  10. Jason Hougak says:

    Shaping up like an El Niño, Nor’easter heading up into New England. Maine is gonna get rocked with snow.
    Is season pass week at the resorts. In high school and collage I bought the Meadows pass then needed to save money and gas and changed and bought for the Bowl. Lately I’ve been buying T-line. The fusion is tempting especially because you get free tickets at about 10 other mountain resorts, which is great if you can travel. I’ve been getting midweek because my work schedule can allow most of the time. Watching and waiting, the pattern is looking like a crummy start. The last map has given some hope but these are computer models, anything can change.
    My daughter also loves Timberline, this year my son is learning to ski. Daughter tried snowboarding last year but prefers skiing.

  11. Benjamin (West Salem) says:

    All I have to say, for now, is that I love the time change and the fact that the models come out an hour earlier!! That extra hour of staying up waiting for the models to come out can make a big difference during the work week….

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Yes, Standard Time is much better for getting maps earlier. Invaluable to get the bulk of the ECMWF in before my main 10pm weather hit

    • catalin stoica says:

      We should stay with Standard Time for 12 months.

    • W7ENK says:

      I disagree. We should stay with Daylight Time year round, because it’s nice to have the late twilight in the summer!

    • Benjamin (West Salem) says:

      Okay, so I like the idea of staying on daylight savings time just so that we can have the lighter, “longer” evenings in summer; I just wish the weather models would come out that hour earlier year round. Can’t we have the best of both worlds???

  12. schmit44 says:

    11/1/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:63 at EW3367 Coos Bay( 98 ft) & W7KKE-3 Road’s E(89 ft)
    Low: 50 at WYETH(102 ft) & JUNIPR(359 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:29 at Rim(7050 ft)
    Low: 21 at KIRK (4519 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 24 degrees
    PINEGROVE (57/33 ) (620 ft )
    CW5507 Camp Sher (51/27) (3020 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.67″ at CW3808 Enterpris(3927ft)
    1.67″ at EW4395 Milton Fr(3455ft)
    1.40″ at MT. HOWARD(7910ft)
    0.94″ at MORGAN MOUNTAIN(4200ft)
    0.93″ at OWYHEE RIDGE(4400ft)

  13. dharmabum says:

    November weather arrived here just like clockwork, 48 degrees dark and drizzly at noon.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I can’t believe how gloomy it is today…only 47 at 2pm here. Nice to have the woodstove going and good afternoon for a nap/movie. But not something I want to endure for 4 months.

    • Boydo3 N. Albany says:

      …but you may have to endure… Just gotta check for the shrooms growing between the toe once in a while.

  14. How are the colors doing in the Portland Metro? Around The Dalles they started becoming more widespread about 4 or 5 days ago. I kinda figured they’d show right before Halloween, and I was right!

  15. Brian Leroy says:

    Clearly there’s some effects of a borderline el nino which is 0.5 currently, something the experts should consider looking into, It doesn’t take a mod or strong episode to change the weather pattern.

  16. W7ENK says:

    I’m just glad we’re getting these “warmest X on record” anomalies out of the way before the winter months. Maybe we’ll get lucky and the pattern will flip to “coldest X on record” in time for winter instead of the other way around like usual? Remember, everything balances out, eventually…

  17. Larry says:

    I could do with a mild winter.
    Thanks Mark!

  18. schmit44 says:

    Mark, at this point do you blame the warm SST’s off of British Columbia for this persistent ridge?

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