Afternoon Wind Storm More Likely

All models and the NWS are now hopping on the Windstorm Express!

Here’s the latest at 8:40am…

• Gusty south wind will arrive in the western valleys around Eugene by noon
• It then spreads north to the Portland metro area sometime in the early afternoon
• Southerly gusts 45-60 mph are likely.
• National Weather Service has issued a High Wind Warning for the Portland Metro Area and valleys.
• We haven’t seen widespread gusts in this range in quite a few years…especially if lots of us get over 50 mph.
• Coastal gusts will be in the 70-80 mph range on the central coast, maybe a bit lighter on the north coast.  Same timing as valleys
• Prepare for lots of power outages and some trees knocked down
• As the wind starts to arrive around noon, temperatures may jump close to 70 briefly…enjoy that!
• Wind will be much calmer after 7pm

12z models are in agreement, even our weak RPM shows wind gusts around 50 mph through the whole valley now.

The 12z NAM has stronger gusts than the 00z showed:

The 12z WRF-GFS isn’t out yet.

I’m still a little concerned about the mature-looking low.  Totally wrapped up in itself which isn’t generally a good sign.  But it won’t be weakening much and its movement will be accelerating.

There are very few cases of a deep low moving so close to the coastline at such a steep angle (south to north).  Generally lows track more SW-NE.  I scanned a bunch of past storms and found just one that was similar in track and depth…March 1, 1974.  Here is a link to Wolf Read’s summary of that storm.  It produced a gust to 61 at PDX and 64 at SLE.  The center of this low will be a bit farther north though.

I’ll be at the OMSI What Will the Winter Be Like meeting until around noon, then probably post after that time.  By the way it’s free, from 10am to noon, and in the auditorium.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

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