Downpours Have Arrived: Rough Evening Commute Ahead!

3pm…

There are going to be some spots of local flooding during the evening commute in the urban areas.   Just some spots, not everywhere, but allow extra time to get to your destination!  At this point there are no flood warnings or advisories, or any weather warnings for that matter.  But I wouldn’t be surprised if the NWS issues a small stream flood advisory soon.

Take a look at rain so far…

PLOT_Rain_NWOregon_Autoplot

At PDX .93″ has fallen just since 11am.  The rain has been particularly heavy on the west/southwest side of the metro area too. In my experience, when you get several hours of .30″ or more, that’s when local flooding issues start popping up across the inland valleys.  Portland saw .38″ in one hour from 1-2pm.

The HRRR model says we could see another 1/2″ or more by midnight, most of that before 7pm as the last real “wave” on the front over us moves by.  After that time we turn more showery and the threat for local ponding/flooding will pretty much end.

Thursday is a showers/sunbreaks sort of day, but still a pretty good soaker.

I’m working on the forecast right now and taking a very close look at the Saturday forecast.  Some models are producing a lot of wind in the afternoon…others not so much.

More later…

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

29 Responses to Downpours Have Arrived: Rough Evening Commute Ahead!

  1. Could something be wrong with my Davis VantagePro2? It’s set to “inches” for increments and on the display it says, “in” next to the total rainfall. It says I got 8.10 inches of rain for the day. Can that be possible? The Siletz River is spectacularly blown out. But over 8 inches of rain? I have no idea what could be amiss with my wx system.

  2. Tyler Mode says:

    It is raining so hard here I can hear it over my TV and fan in my room. 2.04″ for the day with a rainfall rate of 3.79″/hour.

  3. Jason Hougak says:

    I’m calling for a major ICE storm this winter! We are definitely over due for a big one.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      I think we are due for a severe ice storm as well. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see another major arctic blast this winter with even more snow. A persistent high out to our west is ideal for arctic fronts and colder weather in our parts of the country. A little bit of retrograding to the sweet spot can give us the goods. I really want to see some strong east winds with arctic air and a few storms passing by to the south of us undercutting the ridge drawing more of that east wind. The warmer than average pacific waters off our coastline promote these highs in speaking of so I’m optimistic about these patterns. Erik, be sure to repost my blog posts if and when it happens this winter.

  4. paulbeugene says:

    00z model suite so far suggesting that the low will be not as strong, filling/weakening as well upon arriving offshore of Oregon Saturday.
    Things still could change but am expecting nothing more than blustery weather

    • Benjamin (West Salem) says:

      I noticed that. We will have to wait and see what the EURO shows. I also think that the Tuesday storm bears watching…

  5. JJ78259 says:

    Old Al Roker said you guys in the Northwest were going to get 11 inches of Rain by Tuesday wow making up for lost time! Indoor Sports Time!

  6. Tyler Mode says:

    1.77″ so far today in Battle Ground. Lightening up now though…

  7. Rick says:

    Very wet here just east of Mcminnville. Went fishing at Hagg lake last week . They let out a lot of water lately , I’d say the lake is down about 20 feet. They must of been prepping for the fall rains. Oh and by the way the fishing was excellent for rainbow trout.

  8. Raining hard in Yacolt we up to 2.170 inches today

  9. umpire says:

    If we get a good bit o’ wind on Saturday, it should be fun with a bunch of weather geeks at OMSI for the Winter Weather forecast meeting1€

  10. W7ENK says:

    Yup, it’s finally raining hard!

  11. WEATHERDAN says:

    Interesting forecasts (not mine so don’t make a big stink over them) on Accuweather and Pete Parsons 90 day forecast. On Accuweather they are calling for the remains of hurricane Anna to hit us on Monday. And Pete is saying this Winter may be cold and snowy even though it will be a weak to moderate El Nino this Winter. Right now raining hard and 60 in Salem at 4:00 PM. Peace.

    • Brian Leroy says:

      A weak to mod El nino plus a much warmer then normal sea surface temp in the NE pacific so a cold and snowy this winter is highly unlikely mild and dry is the most likely case and I don’t like accuweather the not a reliable source, noaa and cpc are the real experts and they are calling for a mild/dry winter as well.

    • JohnD says:

      Pete Parson’s is a great meteorologist. He has been around for a long time in several significant posts and is right up there, in my view, with Mark. His perceptions certainly are worthy of consideration.

    • Benjamin (West Salem) says:

      I think with this winter shaping up to be a weak El nino.

      El nino influences our long term patterns, but all it takes is for that semi persistent ridge out in the east Pacific ocean to retrograde one time and we could easily have another arctic outbreak and or snowy weather period.

    • Tyler Mode says:

      As I recall, El Ninos favor split flow for us…which means we could end up with more east wind as systems slide south. This can be good to bring in moisture over cold air, but usually that means snow for areas to the south, and cool to the north.

      I hate to say it, but we are do for a boring winter.

    • Tyler Mode says:

      Due*

      I hate basic grammar mistakes!

    • Benjamin (West Salem) says:

      Well, we’ll see. I disagree with you on the being due for boring weather. the winter of 12/13 was about as boring as they come and that wasn’t very long ago. Even last year saw a huge lack of big storms, we just lucked out with the snow and cold and that was due to the persistent ridge to our west. Without the snow and cold, last winter was a terribly boring winter and dry, especially for the ski resorts. I do agree that el ninos bring the dreaded split flow. I remember in Dec 09 having the arctic blast, but no snow… and the rest of that winter was very boring. I’m not confident that this weak el nino will give us long periods of split flow.

      One final thought, just being honest… Part of these ideas I have could just be the wish casting within me.. 🙂 🙂 lol MY forecast is that this stormy weather will dominate the first half of winter, we get a good cold/arctic blast again and the end of winter is drier than normal.

  12. Benjamin (West Salem) says:

    Raining at a pretty good clip for a while now here in Salem. I’m thinking because we are further south that we still have 3/4ths of an inch of rain left to fall by the end of tonight. Wind storm potential looks interesting for Saturday, with at least the GFS showing a decent wind STORM for the Willamette Valley. I’m curious what the EURO says…

  13. gidrons says:

    Someone posted on the old western forum that the GFS/HRRR models aren’t getting accurate satellite data fed into them. Supposedly the problem is with their server and not the satellite.

  14. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    It’s been a real soaker here at my shop in Tigard. I’m curious to find out how much has accumulated in my rain gauge at home.

  15. High Desert Mat says:

    First!!!! Rain? What rain? Haven’t seen a drop yet over here. Anyways, maybe a few showers tonight and tomorrow. Low in the low to mid forties. Starting to get a little gusty as well.

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