A Soaker For Wednesday

Let’s get this out of the way right now…

There isn’t a major wind or rain storm of any sort heading into the area the next 24 hours

That said, it sure is going to be a wet day Wednesday and windy at times too!

So why do you see BREAKING WEATHER ALERTS, STORM TEAM COVERAGE etc…on TV and splashed across Twitter and Facebook?  Or why does your weather radio suddenly go off on its own at 5am?  Well, it’s the first windy and wet system as we head into the rainy season and we news folks have a lot of pent-up weather energy.  We need a good storm!

Here are the wind details:

  • Gusty south wind picks up the next few hours at the coast…gusts to 60 mph are possible in the windier spots
  • Southerly winds pick up around daybreak in the valleys.  Southerly gusts 30-35 mph possible in the morning; about what we saw a week ago

MarkWarnings_Wind_Coast_Valleys1 MarkWarnings_Wind_Coast_Valleys

How much rain?  Our RPM model says almost an inch by sunset tomorrow.  Note the PRECIP ACCUM column.  web_RPM_Text_00z_PDX_4km

A big soaker, but nothing that would cause anything more than temporary ponding on streets or highways.  Of course in the fall any storm drain blocked by leaves can produce a quick local pond can’t it?

It looks like another inch could fall from that time through Thursday evening, so we could see two inches.  Our RPM tends to be a little heavy, but here’s what it shows:


Yesterday it was pretty obvious that this is the beginning of our wet season…take a look at today’s ECMWF meteogram for the next 10 days:


The rain sure isn’t very heavy further into the extended forecast, but there is no really good dry period.  Also notice we are done with 80s and 70s too.  Temperatures should be much closer to normal for the next ten days.  The average high in Portland 10 days from now is 58!

Stay dry tomorrow!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

37 Responses to A Soaker For Wednesday

  1. This just in at 4:02 pm: Rain total for Logsden, OR is 7.34 inches.

  2. W7ENK says:

    311 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014


  3. W7ENK says:

    With all this cloud cover and how dark it is right now, imagine how dark it may have gotten if tomorrow’s partial solar eclipse (~60% in Portland) were to have instead happened today? I bet the street lights would have come on…

  4. Alohabb says:

    What happened to the “gusty winds”??

  5. Alohabb says:

    Attention Portland drivers….its raining !

    The roads are so full of crummy drivers along with flooded roads, corners. A driver just crashed into my street sign not seeing a flooded intersection until it was too late

  6. My Davis Weather Instruments VantagePro2® zeroes out at midnight. At 12:30 pm today, I have 5.33 inches of rain on the display. Ok, make that 5.34 inches now. Location: Logsden, OR 97357

  7. 1.5″ rain in Mac since 9:00PM last night. 1″ overnight and .5″ so far today. It’s now noon. Breezy but not windy. So far so good.

    Should we be worried about this coming Saturday? (wind)

  8. Garron near Washington Square says:

    Wow, I thought I’d missed some late breaking weather news yesterday! Ok, 1st off, I work in the overnight hours managing/merchandizing a freight crew for a grocery store. So there’s a little bit of a news blackout on my end overnight. 2nd, when I opened the store this morning, customers’/employees’ were a little awe struck by the morning winds, and they heard that “It is gonna be a nightmare, or getting much worse by late this afternoon!?” My manager was on me for not ordering more stuff “in case the light go out!” I couldn’t wait to get home and look at the radar, and bulletins! Then, big shocker, something people were hearing was getting “blown” way out of the water on this one. So, again Mark, I totally understand your agony over this twisted news story. I have precious little time with the holidays in full swing to get caught up in the hype! I’ll be keeping an eye on the upcoming one for this weekend though!

  9. dharmabum says:

    The “weather dog” came back into the house this morning, and she is only slightly wet on her back. No need to send out a alert warning yet! I’ll wait until she comes back sopping wet and muddy!

  10. paulbeugene says:

    For whatever it’s worth the mm5 shows peak gusts above 55 knots in the Willamette Valley on Saturday. That’s the highest model output for gusts in Willamette Valley that I have seen in the mm5 model era (I have not seen every run for the past 15 years or whatever but quite a few)

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      You’re right Paul. Here’s the image: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/wgsfc.81.0000.gif

      I’ve never seen it show such strong gusts either.

      I haven’t blogged about it yet for two reasons: first I wanted to get past this little “storm”. And then models are in real disagreement on track and intensity so I was hoping they would settle down a bit on a solution. That steep south-north track would be ideal even though the low isn’t that deep. Hmmm

    • runrain says:

      I’m officially on that wish cast train! Sometimes, wishing can be almost as great as getting. Yes, I want to get like everyone else, but there is an almost palpable atmosphere (pardon the pun) evident when the models show the possibility of something very interesting happening. The downside is the very real disappointment experienced when the bust happens. Anyway, I will live in Hmmm land for the next few days and enjoy it!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I’m in, runrain! Hmmm

  11. Joshua says:

    The dome is strong so far for rain in P Town. Watching the radar is quite frustrating.

  12. paulbeugene says:

    Mm5 WRF 12z has low pressure center taking the CLASSIC windstorm track on Saturday. Has mid 980s for the low but shows it filling as it tracks N along coast. Filling lows don’t get me too excited but this get us some gusts at least into 40s mph

  13. W7ENK says:

    545 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014


  14. Marlene R. Bickar says:

    Now let’s play nice! The other T.V. weather people are doing
    their best. You just never know when their could be a SNEAKER
    come through.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      My issue isn’t much with the other TV weather people, it’s the media sources (and a little of the NWS) alarming folks and causing a “crying wolf” situation. For example, lets say a real storm is approaching, will the public be able to tell the difference between what was actually forecast last night vs. when we say winds are going to gust to 70 in Portland? Many people might dismiss it and say “it didn’t happen last time, why should I believe them this time?”.

  15. Brett says:

    Things must be a little slow moving. Only .04″ overnight!

  16. alohabb says:

    Kinda breezy….not out of the ordinary. no real rain yet. Did have a gust to 27 a bit ago bringing down lots of pine needles and leaves. Should we get a soaker, bet my street floods cause no one cleans their drains

  17. Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

    Oak Harbor now 2 reports of gusts to 48

  18. Hazel Dell Mole says:

    Dang what a buildup for a day and half of rain it is like the sky is falling in the local news stations. KGW had a reporter standing by a street drain moving a few leafs around with his hand commenting on the potential flood. Guess being a senior now and having grown up here rainfall was a way of life from September to June so be thankful for so called global warming now it just Mid October to Mid March. So build an ark for tomorrow and beyond.

  19. Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

    Also, keep an eye on Oak Harbor, WA conditions. Basically the wind Capitol of WA. Gust to 45 already

  20. Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

    Gust to 38 here in kelso, blustery for sure. I’m a mile maybe from the airport

  21. schmit44 says:

    10/21/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:68 at UMATILLA( 270 ft) & John Day River B(305 ft) & RUFUS(185 ft) & AC7WN Hermiston(497 ft) & CW1244 Pendleton(1145 ft) & DW0462 Umatilla(390 ft) & ECHO(758 ft) & JUNIPR(359 ft)
    Low: 58 at CW1075 Boardman(322 ft) & PACCTY-2 Pacific(28 ft)

    High:32 at Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft) & Rim(7050 ft)
    Low: 20 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 32 degrees
    NPOWDR (59/27 ) (3212 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.61″ at TILLAMOOK(11ft)
    1.22″ at SOUTH FORK(2257ft)
    1.03″ at K7ZQU-7 Santiam(4790ft)
    1.02″ at RED MOUND(1753ft)
    0.90″ at MEARES Cape Mear(1421ft)
    0.89″ at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183ft)
    0.84″ at EW4856 Brookings(1365ft)

  22. Paul D says:

    Guess I’m not mowing the lawn the next couple days ☺

  23. The Bad Forecaster says:

    It’s all headed to Seattle. Portland will get NOTHING and LIKE IT once again. 😉

  24. Lauraholic says:

    hey, its semi-exciting. i’ll take it.

  25. W7ENK says:

    I’ve been waiting patiently for the heavy rains to begin for over a day and a half now!! Where are they?!?

  26. Boydo3 N. Albany says:

    Summer’s over.

  27. Jeff Raetz says:

    what no storm? katu posted breaking weather alert though! But yes KATU is a joke!

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