Tropical Storm Ana is revving up and should become a hurricane within 24 hours. This storm is forecast to end up somewhere over or quite close to the main Hawaiian Islands. If a landfall actually happens, as far as I’m aware it will be unprecedented in historical times. Here is a map showing all the storms that have passed within 75 miles of the main island chain…not as many as you would think:
Of course there is always error, especially 4 days out. The official CPHC forecast looks like this right now:
But you might find this more interesting…a loop showing all the different model forecasts for where the center of the storm will go. Each line is one model.
Interesting stuff eh? Shows you why the forecast track can be so uncertain and also why it’s so important to not focus on a specific track in the middle of the “forecast cone”. And you can also see why we call these types of charts “Spaghetti Plots”!
So as of right now it might not be a big deal, or it might be a huge storm. For it to be a big storm, the center has to hit one of those little dots of land!
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen