How Windy Tomorrow? Not a Storm, But Windy

We stayed mainly dry in the metro area today since the main rain band with a cold front has been just to our south.  We figured it would be right over us instead.  Nice way to bust a forecast though!

You may have heard rumblings of strong wind coming tonight or Wednesday.  Here’s the latest:

  • A windstorm is not on the way
  • But gusty southerly wind will develop across the western valleys of Oregon/SW Washington and the coastline late tonight and then die down after mid-morning tomorrow
  • Peak gusts 30-35 mph are likely for most of us.  About 5-10 mph stronger than last night’s gusts.
  • 40-45 mph at the Coast
  • This is strong enough for a few limbs to fall since most leaves are still on the trees, of course there will be a few scattered outages.

The NWS issued a Wind Advisory earlier this afternoon for peak wind gusts around 40 mph in the central/north Willamette Valley tomorrow morning.  I think that’s a bit much and 40 mph gusts are a bit high.  I bet PDX ends up with a peak gust 30-35 mph at best.  That said, 30-35 mph gusts in mid October will easily bring down some branches…and lots of leaves!  That means some scattered power outages are possible again like this morning.

Where is the wind coming from?  A surface low or open wave will scoot quickly north along the coastline later tonight and tomorrow morning, giving us the rush of air behind it from the south.  Models are in some disagreement on how much wind we get (lowering my confidence that anything interesting will even happen!).  The NAM has no strong wind at all, the HRRR shows no gusts over 30 mph (or even less) in the Valley:

HRRR_WindGusts

The ECMWF gives a little more energy to the wave in the afternoon, which means no closed low and not much wind in the morning.  The WRF-GFS is alone showing wind gusts maybe 35-40 mph late tonight and early tomorrow:

wgsfc.27.0000

Our RPM model looks like this:

RPM_12KM_Wind_NWOR

That would imply gusts close to 40 mph, but our model almost always is too high…note the text output

web_RPM_18z_Text_PDX_4km

With most wind events you can assume this text output is 5-10 mph too high on gusts, so this tells me not much is going to happen tomorrow other than the effects I noted above.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

23 Responses to How Windy Tomorrow? Not a Storm, But Windy

  1. pmbalmforth says:

    Looks like the NWS finally read the blog post: ” THIS LOW IS WEAKER
    THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS FORECASTED…AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
    OUR CURRENT WIND FORECAST IS OVERDONE 5 TO 10 MPH.”

  2. W7ENK says:

    SLIGHTLY DELAYED LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    923 PM PDT TUE OCT 14 2014

    http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/19102568

  3. runrain says:

    Mary’s Peak getting gusty now. A good barometer fall now too.

  4. Paul D says:

    I pull up the 7 day forecast on my tablet and it’s showing a graphic that starts with last Wednesday (high of 75). Anybody else seeing this?

  5. High Desert Mat says:

    I just saw Drew Jackson on the ktvz news in Bend. Mark, I never knew he quit working for kptv to be the marketing and communications director for Mt. Bachelor. Pretty cool. He was doing a quick snow outlook on the upcoming winter and referred to the farmers almanac lol, which said dry and chilly for the northwest, but then said he never trusts el Nino or other outlooks and anything can and always does happen. Mother nature is in charge. Mark, do you still talk to him?

  6. Sapo says:

    Yay, wind! We hardly got any rain at all last night here in Tigard.

  7. High Desert Mat says:

    Showers and a low of 39 tonight. Snow will and can happen anytime over here now. I welcome the rain. The sun gets boring day after day after day after day. Alright not really but change is good here and there.

  8. marinersfan85 says:

    Hopefully the low doesn’t initialize wrong.

  9. No rain for me yesterday, but 0.84″ so far today.

  10. W7ENK says:

    I’m rooting for a surprise repeat of the CDS!

  11. Ideal path. Don’t need a real intense one to give us high winds with that forecasted track. Maybe a teaser for the upcoming season?

    • jakeinthevalley says:

      I am cautiously optimistic that this might be a surprise “event” for some depending on the track of the disturbance. These surface lows can really produce relatively narrow bands of intensely steep pressure gradients and the rises in it’s wake can produce stronger winds than might otherwise be expected.

      I wouldn’t be surprised if winds were stronger than Mark is saying.

      Will be interesting to watch, none the less.

  12. Boydo3 N. Albany says:

    party pooper

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