We stayed mainly dry in the metro area today since the main rain band with a cold front has been just to our south. We figured it would be right over us instead. Nice way to bust a forecast though!
You may have heard rumblings of strong wind coming tonight or Wednesday. Here’s the latest:
- A windstorm is not on the way
- But gusty southerly wind will develop across the western valleys of Oregon/SW Washington and the coastline late tonight and then die down after mid-morning tomorrow
- Peak gusts 30-35 mph are likely for most of us. About 5-10 mph stronger than last night’s gusts.
- 40-45 mph at the Coast
- This is strong enough for a few limbs to fall since most leaves are still on the trees, of course there will be a few scattered outages.
The NWS issued a Wind Advisory earlier this afternoon for peak wind gusts around 40 mph in the central/north Willamette Valley tomorrow morning. I think that’s a bit much and 40 mph gusts are a bit high. I bet PDX ends up with a peak gust 30-35 mph at best. That said, 30-35 mph gusts in mid October will easily bring down some branches…and lots of leaves! That means some scattered power outages are possible again like this morning.
Where is the wind coming from? A surface low or open wave will scoot quickly north along the coastline later tonight and tomorrow morning, giving us the rush of air behind it from the south. Models are in some disagreement on how much wind we get (lowering my confidence that anything interesting will even happen!). The NAM has no strong wind at all, the HRRR shows no gusts over 30 mph (or even less) in the Valley:
The ECMWF gives a little more energy to the wave in the afternoon, which means no closed low and not much wind in the morning. The WRF-GFS is alone showing wind gusts maybe 35-40 mph late tonight and early tomorrow:
Our RPM model looks like this:
That would imply gusts close to 40 mph, but our model almost always is too high…note the text output
With most wind events you can assume this text output is 5-10 mph too high on gusts, so this tells me not much is going to happen tomorrow other than the effects I noted above.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen