Last Warm & Sunny Day For Awhile

5:00pm Monday…

What a spectacular Monday afternoon!  Temperatures have jumped into the mid 70s in the metro area (where the south wind has surfaced).  That’s a good 10 degrees above average and pretty good considering some spots started foggy and chilly.

It’s not really a “storm”…more of a juicy cold front sitting just offshore with the first light rain just moving onto the coastline at this hour.  The front will gradually move inland tonight, giving us a rainy night with some southerly breeze at time.  It doesn’t appear to be a heavy rain producer, but a nice soaking again.  The HRRR model is giving most areas west of the Cascades in the valleys less than 1/2” rainfall through sunrise.

HRRR_RainTotal

Beyond that, the front stalls over and west of the Cascades tomorrow, which means frequent showers along with a cooler airmass.  I noticed the Lifted Index is below zero along with some CAPE tomorrow afternoon, so I threw a thunderstorm chance into the forecast.  More showers are likely Wednesday, especially early in the day.

Not so much action Thursday through Sunday with a weak system swinging through Friday night and Saturday morning…timing depends on which model you look at.

On Sunday we get a stronger upper-level high developing just to our east, putting us into a warm (and eventually moist) southwest flow in the upper atmosphere.  As a result I don’t see a setup in the next 7-10 days that would bring anything other than a brief dusting to the higher parts of Timberline and Meadows.

Big picture shows some sort of troughing in the eastern Pacific for the next few weeks, in fact last night’s run of the ECMWF out to 32 days showed off/on wet for quite awhile!

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19 Responses to Last Warm & Sunny Day For Awhile

  1. WEATHERDAN says:

    .30 of rain so far today. Now into showery mode. Maybe another .25 of precipitation before we dry out for about 36 hours starting Wednesday night. Thursday should warm to the low 70,s. After some rain on Friday looks like a nice weekend. Dry with highs in the low 70,s. A nice gradual descent into our rainy season. Maybe a little windy tomorrow morning. Up to around 40 MPH. Overall not too bad. Peace.

  2. W7ENK says:

    LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE ADVISORY
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    1212 PM PDT TUE OCT 14 2014

    http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/19093144

  3. pappoose in scappoose says:

    URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    1212 PM PDT TUE OCT 14 2014

    http://forecast.weather.gov/hazards/?wfo=pqr&lat=45.5184&lon=-122.812&pil=PQRNPWPQR&iss=1413313920&etn=0014&maptype=text

  4. W7ENK says:

    0.35″ overnight beginning at 11pm at my place,
    0.11″ before midnight.

    It was nice to have with the window open and fall asleep to the wind and rain outside. I’ve missed that sound.

  5. Tyler Mode says:

    Not a strong front, but well defined.

    I had a south wind most of the day yesterday. Right around 11:30 PM, the wind switched to the NW gusting to 25 mph.

  6. schmit44 says:

    10/13/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:84 at EW5112 Jacksonvi(1972 ft) & PROVOLT SEED ORC(1180 ft)
    Low: 59 at BUCKHORN SPRINGS(2780 ft) & SQUAW PEAK(4964 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:54 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft) & HARL BUTTE(6071 ft) & HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 19 at DIMLKE (4726 ft ) & KIRK (4519 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 59 degrees
    Lorella (81/22 ) (4160 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.33″ at WEST FORK SATSOP(300ft)
    1.17″ at DW2405 Tierra De(13ft)
    1.10″ at W7KKE-3 Road’s E(89ft)
    0.98″ at TILLAMOOK(11ft)
    0.87″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)
    0.85″ at PACCTY Pacific C(253ft)
    0.81″ at Astoria Regional(10ft)
    0.81″ at DW4535 Cannon Be(23ft)

  7. Mark says:

    What surprises me, especially if you look at the gfs, is how red ( warm) the west is over the next two weeks. Simultaneously it shows above average rainfall. Is that not a contradiction? Are these rains coming out of the tropics. Shouldn’t the temps be trending down and not up?

  8. Brian Leroy says:

    Not sure if i agree whit the current euro run given a developing El nino and a dry and mild fall/winter forecast by CPC, something not right.

    • W7ENK says:

      Developing? No.

      Struggling? Definitely.

      Failing? Perhaps…

      It’s just now at that +0.5C SST threshold. Now it’s gotta hold there for 5 consecutive months before it’s officially an El Niño!

      I’ll get back to you in March. 😛

  9. oldwxwatcher says:

    Oh well, one of these years, if I live long enough, we might actually get a fairly dry Fall and I won’t have to rake wet leaves all the time.

  10. Hal in Aims says:

    first?….agree on the beautiful day……bonus outside stuff done….

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Bonus motorcycle ride in comfy temps for this kid!

    • W7ENK says:

      And a bonus bike commute to/from downtown! I was feeling kind of bad for taking October 1st off from riding, so I guess the Universe allowed me to make it up. 🙂

    • vernonia1 says:

      @ pappoose…..jealous of your motorcycle ride. Miss the wind in ny face big time!

    • dharmabum says:

      And what a beautiful day for framing my deck.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Forgot you could legally have this much fun, vernonia1!
      Great to get back in the wind again. I really like the loop up your way and around to cornelius pass/back on skyline. If you see a black night rod special parked at the lake, stop and say hello!

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