Last Warm & Sunny Day For Awhile

October 13, 2014

5:00pm Monday…

What a spectacular Monday afternoon!  Temperatures have jumped into the mid 70s in the metro area (where the south wind has surfaced).  That’s a good 10 degrees above average and pretty good considering some spots started foggy and chilly.

It’s not really a “storm”…more of a juicy cold front sitting just offshore with the first light rain just moving onto the coastline at this hour.  The front will gradually move inland tonight, giving us a rainy night with some southerly breeze at time.  It doesn’t appear to be a heavy rain producer, but a nice soaking again.  The HRRR model is giving most areas west of the Cascades in the valleys less than 1/2” rainfall through sunrise.

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Beyond that, the front stalls over and west of the Cascades tomorrow, which means frequent showers along with a cooler airmass.  I noticed the Lifted Index is below zero along with some CAPE tomorrow afternoon, so I threw a thunderstorm chance into the forecast.  More showers are likely Wednesday, especially early in the day.

Not so much action Thursday through Sunday with a weak system swinging through Friday night and Saturday morning…timing depends on which model you look at.

On Sunday we get a stronger upper-level high developing just to our east, putting us into a warm (and eventually moist) southwest flow in the upper atmosphere.  As a result I don’t see a setup in the next 7-10 days that would bring anything other than a brief dusting to the higher parts of Timberline and Meadows.

Big picture shows some sort of troughing in the eastern Pacific for the next few weeks, in fact last night’s run of the ECMWF out to 32 days showed off/on wet for quite awhile!

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