Looking Wet Next Week!

3pm Thursday…

A quick addition to yesterday’s post.  Confidence is still very high that a few days of soaking rain start Tuesday…or maybe as early as late Monday evening.  Here’s a nice graphic from the folks at WeatherBell, a great weather data subscription service…worth every penny!  It’s from the morning ECMWF (European) model, widely acknowledged as the best we’ve got on the planet right now.  It’s not always right, but is consistently better than the American models.

ecmwf_rainensemble

The blue bars across the bottom represent rainfall accumulation as we proceed through the next 10 days at PDX.  The green bars show the ENSEMBLE AVERAGE of the same thing.  That’s 51 versions of the same model run averaged together.  You get the idea…the rain gradually adds up after Tuesday.  You can see in two spots the “operational run (blue)” goes a bit higher but ends up almost exactly the same as the ensemble 10 days from now.

The upper part of the chart is pretty isn’t it?  Each row is ONE of the ensembles.  They are all stacked on top of each other.  I often don’t even look at this one except for situations where I’m wondering whether we will get rain at all at a certain time.  OR, there is snowfall version of this chart and you can see how many of the ensembles are generating snow in our area.

As I’m making my forecast this afternoon and I see this, it screams…WET!  The details have been changing, but the models have been consistently forecasting the big move towards our first real wet pattern since spring.  Turn off the sprinklers…

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

52 Responses to Looking Wet Next Week!

  1. WEATHERDAN says:

    76 with some filtered sunshine at 4:30 PM. Now the rains come. But Thursday and Sunday look dry and so does Saturday afternoon and Monday Morning. And not as cool as it looked a few days ago so not too bad. Oh well The nice weather had to end sometime Peace..

  2. W7ENK says:

    Another amazing sunset last night. Probably one of the last ones for the year…

    Thanks to Brian MacMillan for putting it on the air! 🙂

  3. David B. says:

    Mild and cloudy with almost no rain in the foothills of the Washington Cascades yesterday (just a few sprinkles). A great afternoon for capping off the berry season by harvesting a nice haul of wild cranberries.

  4. Tyler Mode says:

    If anyone is interested in seeing pictures I took on a trip up to Rainier….this is from the first part of vacation September 26th-29th up there.

  5. schmit44 says:

    10/12/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:82 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)
    Low: 61 at BOARD(290 ft) & WYETH(102 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:36 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 17 at KIRK (4519 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 50 degrees
    Beatty (68/18 ) (4320 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.42″ at K7ZQU-7 Santiam(4790ft)

  6. JohnD says:

    The “Columbus Day Storm” of Oct. 12, 1962 was a ride for sure. Too easy to forget. That, along with the “Cuban Missile Crisis”, (plus puberty) sent ones boyhood into history in a hurry!

    Walking home after middle school football practice felt like a frolic on that infamous day in Albany, Oregon. Just another wind swept day to revel in the leaves. But this day was different. A breezy afternoon became increasingly windy. And by the time I was nearing my home, roof shingles were flying, trees were bending and breaking and workers in surrounding buildings were shouting “Go home, go home!”–which I, of course, did in a hurry, still thinking that this was just another windy fall day in the Valley and not an unprecedented weather event that historians would be talking about for decades!

    Amid widespread destruction and power outages, my boyhood home, not un typically, had all exposed roof shingles sheared off, two windows blown out, plus our roof top weathervane cupola was blown far and wide, never to be seen again! Truly scenes of mass destruction were everywhere amid what, only decades later, would be likened to the effects of a “Category 3” hurricane. Fortunately for all, the next day was mostly dry, enabling the initial aftermath cleanup/fix up phase to proceed with less encumbrance than what have might have prevailed otherwise.

    Six years later I began studies at OCE (Western Oregon University) which was home of the world famous wire photo of The Campbell Hall art building steeple being blown over by a particularly high velocity wind gust of that prior Columbus Day.

    Sometimes I wonder if that storm was what ignited my lifelong weather watching passion. But my Mom had told me earlier that it must have been the great historical winter of 1950–the year of my birth. I have always stuck with that.

  7. WEATHERDAN says:

    65 and partly sunny at 12:30 PM. Just like Friday and Saturday we are likely going to be in the low 70,s. Tomorrow maybe the mid 70,s. Very nice indeed. This week actually doesn’t look to be all that bad. A rainy Tuesday and a showery Wednesday then a break on Thursday. More rain and showers Friday and Saturday then a few days of drier weather. So far a very nice first half of October. It seems that most of the trees have yet to change color. Back in the 1960,s most trees started to change color by mid to late September and were mostly bare by Halloween. Now they seem to change color in mid to late October and are mainly bare by Thanksgiving, which by the way is only a little more than 6 weeks away. Peace.

  8. dharmabum says:

    Remembering the “Columbus Day Storm” 1962. As I remember it was a Friday afternoon and on the way home from school (I was 10 years old and in 6th grade at the time) the wind really started to pick up and the sky was a very strange purple like color I had never seen before or since. Us kids had fun leaning into the wind and of course had no concern whatsoever of the consequences to follow. After getting home safely the wind intensified as darkness came on. Dad had us kids get away from the front south facing windows as they were really flexing with the wind gusts. The intensity of the storm seemed to last forever that night and the power went out during that time.
    After a sleepless night we went out into a quite different world than the one we left that Friday. Hundreds of trees, wires and power poles down everywhere, roofs and carports torn off, and obviously no cars or emergency vehicles moving. Everyone was without power and few people had chainsaws at that time, but everyone pitched in to help any way they could and I don’t remember hearing anyone complain.

  9. Can anyone explain a Significant Weather Advisory? This advisory was issued at 12:40p & only until 1:30p! Ok we had a downpour in parts of Cowlitz County yesterday so that would fit! There’s 30% chance of rain all day!

  10. runrain says:

    Happy 52nd anniversary, Columbus Day storm!

    • My mom talks about their crazy drive home from Eugene to Klamath Falls that day! My says, her mother is screaming at her dad why can’t he drive right! Well he realizes the wind is pushing the car all over & pulls over! The wind is so strong it rips the door out of his hand when he opens it! My mom also talks about her aunt’s neighbor who was standing in his living room in Eugene & a 50 ft pine tree went all the way through the house from roof to foundation killing the man!

    • Klondike says:

      You meant to say, Happy 52nd anniversary of the Indigenous Peoples Day Storm.

  11. Paul D says:

    When I pull up the weather on my tablet or phone it shows the 7 day graphic starting with last Wednesday.

  12. schmit44 says:

    10/11/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:80 at ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft)
    Low: 63 at HEPP(311 ft) & JUNIPR(359 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:42 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
    Low: 26 at KIRK (4519 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 38 degrees
    Lakeview, Lake C (72/34 ) (4734 ft )
    ILLINOIS VALLEY (80/42) (1389 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.60″ at BLAZED ALDER(3650ft)
    1.39″ at TILLAMOOK(11ft)
    1.30″ at SOUTH FORK BULL(2630ft)
    1.30″ at LITTLE MEADOWS(4000ft)
    1.20″ at MT HOOD TEST SIT(5400ft)
    1.13″ at EW2235 Troutdale(1381ft)

  13. Tyler Mode says:

    My first consecutive sub-70 degree days since June 16th and 17th.

    Nice brisk day with a peak wind of 24 mph. Felt like a spring day with the showers and sunbreaks.

  14. Tyler Mode says:

    Had a cell move by just to the north and produce a couple rumbles of thunder 🙂

  15. WEATHERDAN says:

    71 and mostly sunny in Salem at 2:00 PM. .06 of rain from this system that came through overnight. Now just a few mid level clouds left over. Salem has hit 70 or more at least one day of a weekend 21 times this year. That’s 40% of this entire year or over 50% of the year to date. Weekends have been very nice this year. Peace.

  16. posted a video and pic of the downpour that ran overme on the FB blog page. just south of CR, and a bit north of Longview/Kelso

  17. jakeatbluelake says:

    Oh snap! Burned u Matty. lmao

  18. Tyler Mode says:

    0.27″ overnight 🙂

    • David B. says:

      In a few months I will finally have enough space to erect a rain gauge in a spot where it will get accurate readings, as well as a place where I can put a properly sheltered temperature sensor. I eagerly await being able to expand my home weather observing abilities.

  19. schmit44 says:

    10/10/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:86 at ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft)
    Low: 57 at WAMIC MILL(3320 ft) & QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183 ft) & EW3690 Dufur 9e(2444 ft) & EW4395 Milton Fr(3455 ft) & W7KKE-3 Road’s E(89 ft) & PACCTY-2 Pacific(28 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:52 at CW7477 Lostine(7002 ft) & MT. HOWARD(7910 ft) & ANEROID LAKE #2(7300 ft)
    Low: 20 at CW0732 Seneca (4665 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 54 degrees
    CW1403 Paulina (76/22 ) (3688 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.04″ at MEARES Cape Mear(1421ft)

  20. Wow, the 8-14 day outlook for Oct. 18-24 sure looks WARM even though it could be quite wet. Record-warm October this year???

    • PurpleHaze says:

      Like I said one humid airmass after another.

      I miss the days where we used to get a decent system from the GOA that would bring the first heavy snow to the mountains followed by crisp cool days.

      At least today we were just a tad above 70F! Cheers to fall!

  21. John Liu says:

    I would like to request soaking rain during the week but a few more dry weekends, please.

  22. dharmabum says:

    Bone dry under the fir trees, probably take a few storms to change that. I did a month of extensive drainage projects here on the farm in August with the backhoe. Looking forward to what “Mother Nature” throws my way! “She always bats last!”

  23. W7ENK says:

    Fall is definitely here! Very foggy ride in to downtown this morning. In most spots, visibility was far less than a quarter mile, sometimes as little as 500 feet.

    I wonder why NWS failed to issue a Dense Fog Advisory?

  24. Aleta Mekvold says:

    Gorgeous out in Gresham. Fog burned off very quickly this morning.

  25. David B. says:

    Lots of thick fog up in the Puget Sound region this week. On Tuesday some of it lasted all day. Fall is here.

  26. lilfoot123 says:

    I love our crazy weather!

  27. schmit44 says:

    10/9/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:87 at ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft)
    Low: 59 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft) & Mount Hebo(3170 ft) & SADDLE MOUNTAIN(3250 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:49 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 20 at Horse Ridge (US (4160 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 52 degrees
    CW5507 Camp Sher (79/27 ) (3020 ft )
    Beatty (74/22) (4320 ft)

  28. Paul D says:

    Was very nice today. Looking forward to the cooler weather.

  29. I was reading the Oct. 6th Oregon article about the pineapple express to arrive this weekend. I noticed GFS in one of the model graphics and chuckled. ADD meets Bipolar Disorder in a computer model. That be the GFS.

  30. MasterNate says:

    Where’s Jethro?

  31. Dave in South Salem (500') says:

    Yeah wasn’t it supposed to cool off this week and get cloudy by now?

  32. WEATHERDAN says:

    A few days ago the rain was supposed to arrive on Friday the 10th. Now it may not arrive until Tuesday the 14th. I have a feeling that when it does arrive we get a good dump of rain them 2 or 3 more days of showers. I don’t feel this is going to be the start of a real long stretch of rain such as we had in 2012. Total precip looks like .5-.75. Maybe 1.50 at the coast. This is from the 14th-17th. Currently 75 at 3:30 PM in Salem. Peace.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Keep contradicting Mark. You probably know more than him. Peace.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Mark is a very good meteorologist. The best in Portland. But I sometimes have my own idea of what the weather will turn out to be. This blog is for and open exchange of ideas and opinions. In case it has escaped your notice quite often different forecasters in Portland and elsewhere have forecasts that are at odds with one another. That is because weather forecasting is often open to the interpreting of the individual forecaster. As for knowing more that Mark probably not. As for knowing more than you Mattie I’m certain that I do. Peace.

    • dharmabum says:

      Ouch, I bet Mat has thicker skin than you do Danny boy!

    • High Desert Mat says:

      I wouldn’t bet on that Danny boy!!

    • Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

      With the models trending drier for the next few days, it appears that WeatherDan’s precip forecast for this week was not that far off. Gotta give props when they’re due… good call, WD!

  33. W7ENK says:

    Rain will be a welcome change.

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