Looking Wet Next Week!

October 9, 2014

3pm Thursday…

A quick addition to yesterday’s post.  Confidence is still very high that a few days of soaking rain start Tuesday…or maybe as early as late Monday evening.  Here’s a nice graphic from the folks at WeatherBell, a great weather data subscription service…worth every penny!  It’s from the morning ECMWF (European) model, widely acknowledged as the best we’ve got on the planet right now.  It’s not always right, but is consistently better than the American models.

ecmwf_rainensemble

The blue bars across the bottom represent rainfall accumulation as we proceed through the next 10 days at PDX.  The green bars show the ENSEMBLE AVERAGE of the same thing.  That’s 51 versions of the same model run averaged together.  You get the idea…the rain gradually adds up after Tuesday.  You can see in two spots the “operational run (blue)” goes a bit higher but ends up almost exactly the same as the ensemble 10 days from now.

The upper part of the chart is pretty isn’t it?  Each row is ONE of the ensembles.  They are all stacked on top of each other.  I often don’t even look at this one except for situations where I’m wondering whether we will get rain at all at a certain time.  OR, there is snowfall version of this chart and you can see how many of the ensembles are generating snow in our area.

As I’m making my forecast this afternoon and I see this, it screams…WET!  The details have been changing, but the models have been consistently forecasting the big move towards our first real wet pattern since spring.  Turn off the sprinklers…

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen