Lots of Rain Coming…Eventually

October 8, 2014

7pm Wednesday…

You can stop watering your lawns/gardens this weekend for the season; I plan to turn off my drip irrigation that goes to my raised beds at home and you can too.

Our forecast has changed a bit over the past 24 hours, mainly removing some rain from Saturday and Monday.  I don’t think a changing weekend forecast in early October is as big a deal as in May though…especially considering we have gone through 5 consecutive warm and mostly sunny weekends.  Public expectations for good weekend weather go downhill quickly in October.  Still, it’s looking like we’ll only see a few sprinkles or showers early Saturday and then dry the rest of the weekend.

Why the changes?  Our upper level ridge wants to briefly bounce back up over us Sunday and Monday between a weak system Friday night and a much wetter westerly jet for Monday night through the end of next week.  You can sure see it on the ECMWF ensemble chart… tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

Note the big (and brief!) spike in 850mb temps later Sunday through early Monday.  Also notice the chilly temps right afterwards.  It’s going to feel like late October the middle of next week!

So enjoy a “bonus” weekend with mainly dry weather.

Even with the delayed start to the rain, it IS on the way.  Take a look at the 10 day forecast from this morning’s ECMWF:

ecmwf_tprecip_portland_41

and the 8 day forecast accumulation from the midday (18z) GFS:

gfs_tprecip_portland_65

They both show a good soaking, at least an inch, and maybe 2 inches in the next 8-10 days.

And this time once the ground gets wet it’s not going to dry much.  I notice with the high humidity and short days this week that my lawn isn’t even close to drying at noon.  And my garden doesn’t even look dry after many days without rain.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen