ECMWF Monthly Run

It’s a day old now, but ECMWF 32 day run (along with its ensembles) looks like this:

500za_week1_bg_NA 500za_week2_bg_NA

After the middle of the month it allows more somewhat splitty troughs to move through with the ridging gone.

500za_week3_bg_NA 500za_week4_bg_NA

Interesting to note the 32 day control run (surface map) shows wetter conditions to the south with a splitting trough.  Rain for California but just cooler and a little wetter for us.   I hope that’s not a sign of the winter season to come!

eps_m_mslpa_c_noram_65

35 Responses to ECMWF Monthly Run

  1. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    This is the fourth day in a row in the 80’s for my location, and today was the warmest yet: 84.9°. That must be close to a record for October 6th… however, it looks like the record is 89° on 10/6/1952. Still close, though. I’m really enjoying this “summer-in-fall” weather! Hopefully we can eke out a few more clear nights, especially early Wednesday morning for viewing the total lunar eclipse:

    http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/18sep_lunareclipse/

  2. Prairiedog says:

    For anyone that might have not seen this from the Western board, it is the best. Still laughing two days later.

  3. W7ENK says:

    I never would have thought I’d have all my windows open and still need a fan blowing on me in order to sleep… in October.

    Still 66 degrees with a DP of 61 at 11:11pm

    Incredible!

  4. Benjamin (West Salem) says:

    I see major changes on the GFS runhttp://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KSLE and on the ensembles…. Fall is coming to Oregon, Finally!

  5. schmit44 says:

    10/5/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:95 at ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft)
    Low: 74 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:58 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft) & ANEROID LAKE #2(7300 ft)
    Low: 23 at DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 57 degrees
    Beatty (83/26 ) (4320 ft )
    KLAMATH NWR (83/26) (4531 ft)

  6. Boydo3 N. Albany says:

    72 degrees out at 10:00 PM. October 5th. Mark it down.
    This must be why people move to California.

  7. MasterNate says:

    Hiked Table Rock above Molalla. What a great day for a hike! Not much color yet. Going to be one of those years where we go from green to clean in 2 weeks. Looks like models want to start the rainy season next Monday. Im ready. Bring on Ol Man Winter!

    • Prairiedog says:

      Haven’t hiked TR yet this year. Do you still have to hike in to the trailhead? How were the fall colors up there. Might hike it before this weekend.

    • W7ENK says:

      Fantastic hike, one of my favorites! I did it last summer with Marinersfan85 and my neighbor, but I didn’t make it up there this year. You still have to walk the old road up to the trailhead.

    • MasterNate says:

      Yes, still a 1.5 mile walk just to get to the old trailhead. Not much color yet. Just a little on the vine maple in areas. If we get some good weather late October, I would like to do Rooster Rock up there. Its just the next ridge over. Very nice hike from there to Pee Chuck lookout.

  8. JohnD says:

    If we have a fall/winter season that is “dryish” and “mildish”, then so be it–SO LONG as it ALSO includes one quintessential week with low elevation cold/snow! I recall something like that in fairly recent years–have to check my records. No “El Ninos” are alike. Who knows!?

  9. WEATHERDAN says:

    80 at 2:00 PM. Heading for about 86. This morning was only down to 50. Feels more like early September. Looks like maybe some precip after mid month. This pattern reminds me of the Autumn of 1991. After a warm Summer we had a very warm Autumn. The cool wet season started abruptly around October 25th. This led to a warm and dry Winter with no lowland snow. The next Summer (1992) was one of the hottest in Salem’s history. June was as hot as 105 and the rest of Summer was hot as well. We shall see what happens. Peace.

  10. Garron near Washington Square says:

    I hear their cancelling the model riding rodeo this winter anyway, due to budget cuts. But, and I know it’s probably too soon to mention it, the winter’s over cliff jumpers BBQ is still up and running!!! Who wants to be the 1st to pull the plug on this winter’s prospects? Brian, Mark, Erik, Laura, Larry, WeatherDan??? C’mon, I know we’re all thinking it…lol

    I’m not cutting as much firewood this fall, I’ve still got 1/4 cord left out of a full one last fall, and I really stretched using it this year with backyard firepits, and camping party’s.

  11. Enjoying our toasty PDO! A bit worried for our upcoming water year however. Also not looking forward to prolonged valley inversions if this pattern holds. I have a feeling if those in the Dakotas eastward liked last winter they’ll love this one.

  12. schmit44 says:

    10/4/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:97 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)
    Low: 75 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:56 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 23 at DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 61 degrees
    CW5507 Camp Sher (89/28 ) (3020 ft )

  13. JERAT416 says:

    Bring on 1949-50 winter!

  14. WEATHERDAN says:

    75 and sunny at 1:30 PM. I for one do hope to see a warm and dry Winter. I hope this is followed by another warm and dry Spring and another hot Summer. I used to really love the snow and cold but lately I seem to prefer the warmer Winters. I know a lot of people like those epic cold and snowy Winters but last year was enough to hold me for a couple of years. Besides it just seems that after a really cold and snowy Winter we usually get a mild and dry one. It’s just like Mick Jagger once sang. You can’t always get what you want, but sometimes you get what you need. Peace.

  15. schmit44 says:

    10/3/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:90 at LONG PRAIRIE(1093 ft) & EW1735 Central P(1285 ft) & Hayes Hill (US 1(1640 ft) & ILLINOIS VALLEY(1394 ft)
    Low: 72 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:51 at MT. HOWARD(7910 ft)
    Low: 23 at Horse Ridge (US (4160 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 55 degrees
    CW1403 Paulina (80/25 ) (3688 ft )
    Horse Ridge (US (78/23) (4160 ft)

  16. No Snow says:

    Mark’s going to owe me dinner. 🙂

  17. Brian says:

    Yup, that looks like the first sign of a of El nino pattern shaping up, let the boring storm season begin

  18. PurpleHaze says:

    Not surprised one bit.

    We are in a peak of a mini warm phase which was 1998 (globally) so for a while we are going to see warmer then normal years but the average will slowly go down from here on out due to many atmospheric and oceanic reasons I am not going to get into on here but it will take time.

    However please tell me when we will get some decent rains to green things up as I am very allergic to dry grass and this summer has been a real killer. 😦 El Yucko!!

  19. The Bad Forecaster says:

    Washington State Climatologist Nick Bond says to prepare for at least a weak El Nino this year. Will it reach moderate levels? That remains to be seen because Erik Holm has been mentioning the SST levels have been staying closer to no more than the weaker solution at best. We’ll all eventually see I guess huh?

  20. Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

    They need it

  21. W7ENK says:

    El NUUUUUUUUUUUNuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!! 😥

  22. Oh no, the dreaded split flow? Yuck.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Just remember all the split flows in the early part of winter of ’08. Heck, there wasn’t any snow up at G Camp at the beginning of January and the ski resorts were closed. Everyone thought what a horrible winter, then I think we all know what happened after that. Just check the old blog posts from that early that winter. Warm, dry, split flows. It sucked. Lol

    • weathernut65 says:

      When I saw the ocean temp forecast, I was pretty certain we’d be headed for a wet November followed by a winter of split storms. I think the ski season is doomed.

    • Benjamin (West Salem) says:

      I hate the split flow.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Beginning of December I meant

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