Monthly ECMWF Run

Just looked at the monthly ECMWF run.  That’s the ECMWF model run out to 32 days.  General pattern is ridging the first two weeks:

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA

The the upper-high retrogrades farther west with cool troughing over us…

500za_week3_bg_NA

Then fall rains begin as the ridge disappears?

500za_week4_bg_NA

We’ll see…

9 Responses to Monthly ECMWF Run

  1. PurpleHaze says:

    I have a feeling we are in for a warm n wet winter of the worst kind with a lot of frontal systems that are near misses just enough for us to squeak at average overall though I suspect a really dry month in the winter then a really wet one with an atmospheric river event to keep it real close to average.

    However it goes we will get ONE modified artic air event in December to remind us winter isn’t over when we wonder where all the cold fronts are.

    January will ust enough snow in the mountains to keep skiers somewhat happy but it will be late in the winter more towards Feb for the really good white stuff up there and several 500ft snow events in early spring giving us a taste of snow you can lick at.

    It will definetaly be one of those >;) type of winters.

  2. WEATHERDAN says:

    Cola/Grads GFS Meteogram has the same forecast. Warm and dry through about the 13th then cooler and wetter. This would be fairly typical for October. Our average in Salem starts out at 72 and drops to 58 by the 31st. However I feel like this is going to be a warm and dry Autumn. So any cool wet spells will be of a limited duration. Salem has just had their warmest average ( Min/Max ) temperatures for September since records have been kept (1892). Peace.

    • PurpleHaze says:

      Do you think this will be another just 10 days out winter and it hardly ever happens?

      If it weren’t for the two big cold spells this would’ve been a very UNremarkable winter overall due tot the boring in between parts more in line with 2000-01.

    • W7ENK says:

      Yes Kyle, I do.

  3. schmit44 says:

    9/29/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:80 at CW3932 Central P(1290 ft) & Medford Viaduct(1360 ft) & UMATILLA(270 ft) & AC7WN Hermiston(497 ft) & DW0462 Umatilla(390 ft) & EAST BIRCH CREEK(1617 ft) & ECHO(683 ft) & UMATILLA RIVER N(363 ft)
    Low: 64 at ECHO(683 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:43 at MT. HOWARD(7910 ft)
    Low: 28 at Horse Ridge (US (4160 ft ) & DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 44 degrees
    Horse Ridge (US (72/28 ) (4160 ft )
    DIMLKE (59/28) (4726 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.89″ at GRASSY MOUNTAIN(4560ft)
    0.93″ at BALTZOR RANCH NE(4620ft)
    0.88″ at DANNER(4225ft)
    0.80″ at FISH CREEK(7900ft)
    0.76″ at MOON HILL(6100ft)
    0.66″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)
    0.64″ at Rome(4049ft)
    0.63″ at MORGAN MOUNTAIN(4200ft)

  4. Boydo3 N. Albany says:

    Looks to be right on schedule. Just want to get my deck work done first.

  5. I’m expecting significant positive departures for October this year. We haven’t seen that happen since 2003, and this is THE kind of pattern favorable to its occurrence.

  6. W7ENK says:

    Yup… M R maps!

  7. The Bad Forecaster says:

    Hi Mark

    Ah, looks like pretty much of a normal pattern as temperatures go for the month of October. While there is a lot of orange showing on the CPC NOAA map I believe it will be closer normal for temperatures with the potential of an El Nino brewing in the Pacific. During years of an impending El Nino there at times appears to be a cool down pattern that goes into November but then things change around as we go into December and onward for the winter. I suspect while the temperatures will be close to normal that things will be dry in October at least up here in Tacoma because right now we are having a wet later half of September here.

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