Soaking Rain Next Week

Long range models have changed a bit in the past two days.  They now show westerly flow punching through the eastern Pacific the middle of next week.  That means our first round of wet weather systems since late June.  Take a look at the ECMWF for next Wednesday.

ecmwf_500day7

The 18z GFS ensembles show lower than normal heights (troughing) in the eastern Pacific.  Note the strong westerly flow running right into the West Coast.

gfs_ens_thursday

The 12z ECMWF shows a big soaking with all areas west of the Cascades in the valleys getting over an inch in the next 10 days.

ecmwf_10dayprecip

You can see just about all the 50+ ensemble members of the ECMWF showing some sort of significant rain the 2nd half of next week.  The average is around 1″.

ecmwf_ens_precip

Is this the beginning of a long wet spell?  Not sure yet, especially since we’ve seen a dramatic change in the past 48 hours.

Regardless, I’m feeling more confident that we’ll get some sort of soaking starting as early as next Tuesday.  So if you have outside projects going that can’t handle getting wet…finish up this weekend!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

15 Responses to Soaking Rain Next Week

  1. Jason Hougak says:

    Air is a bit fresher today in Estacada

  2. Jason Hougak says:

    It’s going to be a roller coaster, extremely dry to heavy rain!

  3. Boydo3 N. Albany says:

    Hoping for a couple day soaker and then back to some nice fall weather until the REAL rains begin in late October.

  4. Paul D says:

    Finished up my outdoor projects two weeks ago. Bring on the rain!

  5. ChiefWright (Marquam) says:

    Thanks Mark, for the headsup. I know it’s the weather and all that with the requisite disclaimers, yada, yada yada, but it’s an earlier and more noticeable warning than the folks up at NWS might give…

  6. Tyler Mode says:

    0.01″, my first measurable rain in 3 weeks. Doesn’t look like much more for today though…

  7. Jason Hougak says:

    Just what Estacada ordered!

  8. David B. says:

    Fine by me. The chanterelles are coming up, but they’ve been pretty winsome and dessicated for the most part. I’ve been hoping for a good soaking so the next batch are nice and healthy and appetizing.

  9. Joshua says:

    Yes!!!!! Open up the floodgates. Sayonara worst summer ever.

  10. schmit44 says:

    9/17/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:94 at NORTH FORK JOHN(1975 ft) & Rome(4049 ft)
    Low: 69 at BLALOK(277 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:59 at YACHTS Yachats(82 ft)
    Low: 39 at KLAMATH NWR (4531 ft ) & CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft ) & DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 48 degrees
    Burns Municipal (88/40 ) (4144 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.37″ at ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389ft)
    0.27″ at ONION MOUNTAIN L(4438ft)
    0.18″ at CALVERT PEAK(3822ft)
    0.14″ at AA7OA Astoria(240ft)
    0.13″ at Astoria Regional(10ft)
    0.13″ at BROOKINGS(79ft)

  11. It’s time for more seasonable weather. We need the rain, especially the fire fighters. Let the Fall storms commence.

  12. SR says:

    Thanks for the heads up on this– time to put the Fall Fertilizer down on the lawn

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