Soaking Rain Next Week

September 17, 2014

Long range models have changed a bit in the past two days.  They now show westerly flow punching through the eastern Pacific the middle of next week.  That means our first round of wet weather systems since late June.  Take a look at the ECMWF for next Wednesday.

ecmwf_500day7

The 18z GFS ensembles show lower than normal heights (troughing) in the eastern Pacific.  Note the strong westerly flow running right into the West Coast.

gfs_ens_thursday

The 12z ECMWF shows a big soaking with all areas west of the Cascades in the valleys getting over an inch in the next 10 days.

ecmwf_10dayprecip

You can see just about all the 50+ ensemble members of the ECMWF showing some sort of significant rain the 2nd half of next week.  The average is around 1″.

ecmwf_ens_precip

Is this the beginning of a long wet spell?  Not sure yet, especially since we’ve seen a dramatic change in the past 48 hours.

Regardless, I’m feeling more confident that we’ll get some sort of soaking starting as early as next Tuesday.  So if you have outside projects going that can’t handle getting wet…finish up this weekend!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen