Monthly ECMWF Run…Ridge Stays Nearby

11pm Monday…

Last night’s 00z ECMWF maps…an average of all the ensembles for the next month.  It’s upper-level height anomaly (500mb) for 4 one-week periods.





 After this week’s ridge which is centered a bit to our west, it shifts directly over the West Coast through the rest of the month and into early October.  This would imply there is no start to the rainy season in the next few weeks; but there’s no reason a passing front or trough couldn’t give us 1/2″ of rain.

The 00z GFS ensemble chart (brand new this evening!) shows a peak in heights/temps around this Sunday and again the weekend of the 21st.


Easterly flow is going to be much stronger this time around later this week as strong high pressure is dropping into the Rockies.   The WRF-GFS has 30-40 kt wind barbs over the metro area from just above the surface to around 4,000′ elevation. 

It’s going to get very windy on the west slopes of the Cascades on Thursday!  I also kept Thursday’s high temp at 80 degrees due to all that wind.  That’s cooler than a +15 degree 850mb temp would suggest.

Dewpoints will also plummet even lower than during the last warm spell last week.  Looks like they may even drop down into the 20s in spots west of the Cascades.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen



42 Responses to Monthly ECMWF Run…Ridge Stays Nearby

  1. Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

    Pdx just gusted to 40!

  2. W7ENK says:

    X-Class solar flare with earth-directed CME, HF comms currently dead on sunside of globe, massive auroral display expected next 12-48 hours.

  3. W7ENK says:

    1107 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2014

  4. W7ENK says:

    912 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2014

  5. Well, last night’s 00z 4km was the most impressive yet with the east wind. Look at all the 50-55kt wind barbs down to 950-975mb and 40-45kts just off the surface. I have never before seen easterly flow progged this strong for September. As I said before this looks more typical of late November through February. We just may see a Wind Advisory before this is over.

  6. Jason Hougak says:

    6-12″ of snow in the Rockies of Montana with 4-8″ down to 5,000 feet. Winter is on its way

  7. schmit44 says:

    9/9/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:87 at Medford Viaduct(1360 ft) & CW6811 Grants Pa(947 ft) & ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft)
    Low: 64 at BOARD(290 ft) & RUFUS(185 ft)

    High:51 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 22 at KIRK (4519 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 53 degrees
    Beatty (79/26 ) (4320 ft )
    KLAMATH NWR (77/24) (4531 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.14″ at WANDERER’S PEAK(4350ft)
    0.11″ at HORSE CREEK(3402ft)

  8. I hope you’re all enjoying the awesomeness of having warm/sunny during the early fall months. The three month outlook doesn’t look great for weak-sun season (Nov-Jan) this year; likely a lot of inversions in the lowlands at times, or else very mild and pleasant in the middle of the winter. Warm and dry.

    February through April also look warmer than average for the PNW, so this could be the year the sun angle can flex its muscle early on very nicely…

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Really funny to think that you can predict months out let alone 2 weeks. If I recall in ’08 the models had been warm relatively through the early part of winter and then we all know what happened. So for you to say that winter is going to be warmer and drier than average is preposterous. We don’t know what’s going to happen a month from bow let alone this winter. That’s why Mark doesn’t make a forecast and why most of the time all the Mets and climatologists are wrong too every winter weather meeting. Its murphys law, and flip a coin because no one really knows. No one saw this warm summer and no one can predict this upcoming winter. Lets just model ride and see what happens cause anything can really. Peace

    • In El Niño (and by extension, the warm end of neutral) years most of our action seems to happen between November and early January, as I understand it. The last El Nino year 2009-10 gave us a big arctic blast in December, then Jan-Mar was all very warm with early spring stuff budding out probably 3 weeks earlier than normal. And the time before that, in 2004-05, guess what happened in Feb-March. That was a pretty dead season but we did have one little ice event in the middle of January.

    • MasterNate says:

      Actually, they did predict a warmer than average summer for the west and cooler than average for the east. Got it right for once.

    • JohnD says:

      Uh, are we sure about El Niño?

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Mat, there were strong hints of a warm summer…take a look at this blog post.

    • W7ENK says:

      Pretty sure it’s dead, JohnD

  9. AlexQS says:

    I love snow!

  10. David B. says:

    “As long as it comes with plenty of snow…”

    I request an inversion of last year, please: This year, most of the action in the Puget Lowlands and one storm surprising the forecasters by slopping over into the northern half of the Willamette Valley.

    • W7ENK says:

      You got that in 2012, and perhaps even in 2011, if I recall. Last year, the Northern Willamette Valley just started making up the difference. We still have a ways to go…

  11. runrain says:

    A good time Thursday to visit the Vista House. Gusts to maybe only 60mph, but some nice weather to enjoy them in vs. freezing one’s rear off in the winter.

  12. gidrons says:

    Those Russians pick up the darndest things on their dash cams.

  13. Hey Mark, Is Lost Lake considered to be part of the West Slopes of the Cascades? Do you think it will be super windy up there on Friday/Saturday? Thanks


  14. Jason Hougak says:

    Sun and dry are a given in our climate in the summer into fall. What we are lacking from when I was a kid here are the non stop days of endless rain from the barrage of Pacific Storms. Need I say 99′ was an epic year to have a season pass to meadows. I was a senior and remember riding more than school. The snow plows didn’t have the ability to move the vast amount of snow from the 15 plus foot high roadway. Snowblowers had to work fast in order to stay ahead so plows had somewhere to push the white stuff.
    I love our Oregon weather. Only would like more cold and snow to balance out the hot and dry.
    Those who are complainer of the cold and nasty weather would go crazy if we had winters as long as this summer. If we had snow and cold as many days as our record summer many of you would be moving.
    So enjoy it while you got it. There is a winter coming where we’ll all be in for it and I’ll be

  15. Jason Hougak says:

    Can’t wait for the first winter storm warning… Brrrring on winter!!!

  16. Paul D says:

    Go away 90’s. You’re not welcome here!

  17. Larry says:

    So looking forward to another Crown Point wind event!

  18. 00z GFS was the strongest run yet with the coming East wind. In fact, I have never before seen east wind progged this strong in September. This is more like something we’d see late November through February. 00z 4km Cross Section(Time Height) has exceeded even my expectations with 50kt wind barbs down to 950-975mb and 40kts just off the surface! Wind Advisory coming?

    • Garron near Washington Square says:

      If we can keep ’em coming through the end of November, there will be no need to rake the leaves! Let mother nature blow them all the way to Japan! Leaf tsunami!!!! Love the return of the east winds…

    • JohnD says:

      Thanks Rob.
      ‘Hope all is well.
      Looking forward to your posts in the coming season!

  19. The Bad Forecaster says:


    A dry and warm September? Hmm that would surely be different than last year here when I had just over 8 inches of rain. Unfortunately it also signaled a not so great winter to come here in the Tacoma area at least.

    I am not thrilled about more exceptionally warm weather for another month as I am battling issues with lymph edema on the legs. It figures that I am battling that issue again this year because this year Seatac has been at least going at near record pace for 80 plus degree weather this year. So far 42 days have reached 80 plus degrees at the Seatac Airport and the average since 1981 (just over 30 years) is 27.4. This year so far is the most days since 1967 when the Seatac Airport logged 46 days. The all time record is 47 back in 1958.

    If things are close to following the trend that Portland is following and the ECMWF long range models verify, we could be looking at a new record for the most 80 plus degree days at Seatac. Only 6 more days to go to break that record.

    Last years total for the year was 40 so it too was an exceptionally warm summer last year.

  20. schmit44 says:

    9/8/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:94 at ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft) & ALKALI FLAT(2495 ft)
    Low: 66 at JUNIPR(359 ft) & RUFUS(185 ft)

    High:55 at Brookings Airpor(459 ft)
    Low: 26 at KIRK (4519 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 55 degrees
    CW5507 Camp Sher (88/33 ) (3020 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.07″ at TIDEWATER(2035ft)

  21. schmit44 says:

    A long-range outlook such as this one should seal the deal for PDX. Probably will end up the warmest summer in history (June 21-Sept 21).

    • W7ENK says:


      Now, will we flip this pattern come October 15th and lead into our coldest Winter on record? Everything balances out, right??

      As long as it comes with plenty of snow…

    • The Bad Forecaster says:

      Keep wishing really hard Erik. You just might get lucky and have another banner year of snow in Milwaukie but don’t bet the farm on it. 🙂

    • High Desert Mat says:

      I am going to go with a couple mini snowstorms for PDX this winter, 2-4″, along with about 6 or so of the usual 500 feet or higher events that hit in late winter like usual, with no arctic blasts this go around. I think the mini snow events will be of the highs in the low 30’s sort with lows in the upper 20’s. So no major events in my opinion. What’s the latest word on el Nino this upcoming winter? I haven’t looked and hope it stays in the la nada zone.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      We had our cold and snowy weather last Winter methinks. -27 at Burns. -10 at Eugene and +8 at Salem. Also Eugene, Corvallis and Salem all had over 20 inches of snow last Winter. Yes we could have another wild Winter but we don’t usually have two really wild Winters consecutive. In the meantime the hot weather just keeps on coming, yippee. 70 in Salem at 1:00 PM after a low of 58. On our way to 76 today and 83 on Wednesday. Then the heat starts to arrive. Another hot weather game at Autzen on Saturday. Go Ducks. Peace.

    • David B. says:

      “As long as it comes with plenty of snow…”

      I request the inverse of last year, please: This year, most of the action in the Puget Lowlands and one storm surprising the forecasters by slopping over into the northern half of the Willamette Valley.

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