A Slow Thursday

It’s been a real slow two days weatherwise…especially considering an upper-level low has been overhead.  Three days of at least partially busted forecasts plus lots of time spent creating some graphics has meant no blog posts.

Very little going on this evening except some flooding in…of all places Hermiston.  Showers and thunderstorms kept developing over the Boardman/Hermiston area for a couple (or three) hours.


Quite an unusual occurrence in one of the driest places in the state.

I’m a bit late, but I see the NCDC climate data is out for July. july_usa_temps 

No big surprise, the West was hot and the East was “cool”.  Of course cool in the east is still warmer than what we typically see.  The 119 in Oregon means that out of 120 Julys, this was the 119th warmest…2nd warmest on record here!  

Is summer getting warmer here?  It appears that at least the June-July part is west of the Cascades:


That is a plot of July temperatures for Oregon Climate Zone #2, which is the Willamette Valley zone.  There is a slight uptick the past 30 years or so.  Those chilly summers around 2010 sure stick out though!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

134 Responses to A Slow Thursday

  1. Jason Hougak says:

    Wow, I just stepped into the blog ring and am seeing some good blows. Quite entertaining! Just like last winters wine fest about the cold and snow! Funny how when weather gets boring we start creating our own drama to keep us entertained.
    15F with three feet on snow please!

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      Oh, yes, it’s so entertaining to post something fun, just mind your own business only to be harassed and provoked for it excessively. If you want to remove the drama I can give you a list of names and then you’ll never see any problems in here again.

    • Lauraholic says:

      I am pretty sure there is a picture of your list of names somewhere around here.

      when are you going to bury the hatchet and forgive and forget? this has gone on long enough and we should all get along. Its more fun to argue about weather and the placement of the low’s in the wintertime than block each other and hide.

      Life is short. Let’s be friends!

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      A lot of us have not caused trouble, just drop it Rob.

    • W7ENK says:

      This list? 😆

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      And that was when most of that list wasn’t even commenting or saying anything towards Rob..

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      Remove WX Ninja, add Laura. Same as the ban list in my group. That will never change. Cry about it all you want.

    • The Bad Forecaster says:

      Well, well there is what I like to call “The Fantastic 7” list. Yep I say “fantastic” because we are all on the same group together on the new one that includes Laura.

      I agree with Laura. Rob you can not just bury the hatchet. That’s okay some people spend a good portion of their life holding a grudge because sadly that is what makes them happy.

      You know something Rob? You should be on the Smithsonian Institute World Volcano website because your eruptions are very easy to predict. Probably more so than any volcano in the world. There you go buddy, I just put you in elite self righteous company with all the most famous volcanoes in the world just like you have done to us on your wonderful list there that I am sure you still have on your group.

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      Wow cool I’ve always wanted to be thought of as a Volcano?…. Seriously. Did any of you(In the Gang) ever stop to think that how people react to you just might have to do with how you treat them? I mean I’m just throwing it out there. Hmmm. YES. DUH. Did you expect something different? I know if I was a major @*$# for people for years I’d pretty much expect the same. DUH. You’re all so very boring, predictable, and pathetic. I’m a very forgiving person, but definitely NOT if in doing so it’s going to come back to bite me. Nope. That has been the case with you all time and time again. I have no desire to bury any hatchet, forgive, or forget. You simply are meaningless and insignificant to me in every aspect. You do not exist to me. Deal with it.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      We treat everyone fine. Ask just one other individual on here if they’ve ever been threatened, trolled, laughed at, or the like.. etc.

      (Here are I am replying to a person who’s threatened Mark Nelsen on Facebook)

    • schmit44 says:


      You need to consider making your own WordPress blog.

      I am picturing a new Rob-blog where you can be in charge of everyone and ban anyone who disagrees with you.
      I am imagining a blog where you can mislead people with outrageous forecasts for our area that never come true.
      I am visualizing a blog where you can report wind speeds that are much higher at your house than surrounding stations.
      I am envisioning a blog where you can brag about your music that nobody on earth cares to listen to.
      I am conceptualizing a blog where you can tell EVERYONE how professional you are at everything you do.
      In the meantime you are ruining this blog experience for others with your personal non-weather related mental issues. The only reason you dragged this drama from the other thread is to get attention. I am speculating that the real “non internet” world you live in has zero “real life” friends.

      Kudos to Mark Nelsen for not intervening here and that is why you are so upset. Maybe he is tired of babysitting a full-grown adult who is in his mid 40’s? Maybe he finds it funny like others?
      I really can’t say for sure.

      I find it fascinating how nobody in your so-called super duper FB group is coming to your defense here. Its probably because you are a total embarrassment to them as well as yourself 🙂

  2. Jason Hougak says:

    Bagged a pronghorn antelope, summers done, time for fall and buck season. Winter is on its way!
    BTW I quite enjoyed a recap of a post from last winter from Karl. I wonder why it’s posted here in August.

  3. Karl Bonner says:

    Here’s what we know now about arctic air in early March:

    1. Sun angle is a major obstacle to staying cold all day (duh!) Mark’s call for a high of 38 on Thursday the 3rd, and we ended up in the low 40s everywhere except the Gorge ‘blast zone.’ But Saturday we had both cloud cover AND east wind with the incoming storm, and PDX never got above 37.

    2. Surprisingly good ice storm east of I-205 overnight into early Sunday morning, and a quick wave of snow in the Gorge – but mild west wind came rushing through Sunday night so by Monday, The Dalles was back up to 51 degrees. Cold air in March doesn’t like to stubbornly hang on in the Gorge, the way it sometimes does for 2-3 days after an arctic outbreak in Dec-Jan.

    3. Check out North Seattle up toward the San Juans and Bellingham! Widespread 3-6″ snow totals on Sunday / early Monday, and daytime temps hovering 28-32 for two days straight. It was a “real” winter blast up north, which adds to my impression that the seasonal “window” for arctic air extends an extra week or two as you go north.

  4. Linda says:

    Hi Mark……….are you on vacation again? We miss seeing you lately.

  5. WEATHERDAN says:

    69 in Salem at 11:00 AM. Our low was 51. This was the 60th consecutive morning with a low at or above 50. Still this morning was the coldest since June 22nd. Sunny and 80 today. Summer keeps going strong. Average high in Salem is now 82.

  6. Tyler Mode says:

    Cool this morning with a low of 44!

    It’s the coolest temp since, well, the first day of summer (June 21st)

    • David B. says:

      And cool this afternoon up my way. Didn’t make it out of the 60s today despite it being sunny from about noon on. First sunny day that has failed to reach at least the 70s in a long time.

  7. schmit44 says:

    8/20/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:91 at ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft) & LAKE OWHEE AND O(2400 ft) & Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft) & JUNIPR(359 ft)
    Low: 72 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)

    High:54 at MT HOOD TEST SIT(5400 ft)
    Low: 34 at KIRK (4519 ft ) & DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 42 degrees
    Beatty (81/39 ) (4320 ft )

  8. High Desert Mat says:


  9. WEATHERDAN says:

    71 and mostly sunny in Salem at Noon. We had another warm night in Salem. Our low dropped to only 63. The 26th time this Summer and only 3 off the record of 29 set just last year. Low 80,s today through Friday. Then a warm up starting on Saturday. Upper 80,s and low 90,s for a few days. Hard to believe the State Fair starts this Friday. Almost time for the kids to go BACK TO SCHOOL Bwa Ha Ha. Anyway, 89 in Salem yesterday but we got a nice marine push around sunset. Very pleasant out today. First morning low clouds since July 25th. Almost forgot what they looked like. Really nasty flash floods in AZ yesterday. California could have used those rains. Peace.

  10. schmit44 says:

    8/19/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:98 at ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft) & ALKALI FLAT(2495 ft) & Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)
    Low: 78 at HEPP(311 ft)

    High:59 at Newport(30 ft) & TIDEWATER(2035 ft)
    Low: 40 at KIRK (4519 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 44 degrees
    ILLINOIS VALLEY (98/54 ) (1389 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.23″ at BULLY CREEK RESE(2500ft)
    0.15″ at SUMMER LAKE(5085ft)

  11. Tyler Mode says:

    Here is what I’m calling the Mt. Rainier Sampler (until I have time to work on more photos)

    To tell you how beautiful it is up there, typically on a week long road trip, I”ll take 1,200-1,500 photos. In the last two days I took nearly 1,000

    • Mike (Orchards 255') says:

      Great photo’s (as always).

    • vernonia1 says:

      One of my very favorite places. It’s a shame that the old visitors center is gone. Miss the “flying saucer” as my kids called it. Somehow it seems to have changed the environment for me :(. Last time I was there the road was in bad shape…..I suppose a testament to budget cuts. Thanks for sharing photos of places we might not otherwise get to see!

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      I love these photos! Thanks!

    • Tyler Mode says:

      Ya, I was just thinking that yesterday. I loved the old visitor center for it’s feel. I loved walking up the ramps around the building…and the cafe was better (cheaper for sure)

      Then again, I sit in the Inn for hours just reading, listening to the piano and people watching.

      They are rehabilitating the road completely. They’ve already completed Reflection Lakes to the Steven’s Canyon entrance. Now they are working Nisqually to Longmire. Over the next couple of years, the road between Longmire and Paradise will be completed.

    • Boydo3 N. Albany says:

      Nice work. Keep it up!

  12. Jake-(Gresham) says:

    I used to weigh 172lb at this start of this summer and now I weigh 192lbs. This summer is boring and…. pudgy. I can’t do this much longer!

  13. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Ended up with a small rumbler just a few miles to my south in K-Falls. That makes day #20 of the year. (at my house anyhow, I know KLMT recorded less than this).

    A lull in t’storms for a while, and I’m thinking maybe last few days of August I’ll end up with a bit more convection. I’m really hoping September delivers something.

    • Garron near Washington Square says:

      Thanks for your updates Timmy. Maybe a wild ride down there, as you guys are due for something unusual, IMO. If you get thunder snow, with a small tornado and hail, PLEASE keep you video camera handy! IF we get an Elnino/nada season, and you guy are the excitement you must keep us on the front lines! Having the feeling we’ll get missed, while you guys to our south get hammered….Gonna be a long winter season if the fronts miss us entirely…Just a feeling.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      I gotta feeling most of our big t’storms are over for the year. I’ve already had about 4 severe warned storms in the vicinity of Klamath Falls earlier in August and 1 in July I think. The rest should be garden variety type until next Spring.. I do hope for some good ones though.

      I just don’t think September is a month to see anything too big down here. June-August is the real good stuff. And I think it’d be best if Mother Nature saved some of that potential for next year 😉

  14. WEATHERDAN says:

    79 at noon in Salem after a low of 65. Headed for 87 after yesterdays 93. ULL looking less impressive than even yesterday. Now unlikely mid and South valley will see much in the way of low clouds this week. Warmer weather on tap by Saturday with temps up to around 90 by Sunday. Wednesday-Friday in Salem looks to be around 79-82. So quite a bit cooler than recently. As far as this Winter is concerned let me put my two cents in. Which is just about all it’s worth. I think our warm and dry pattern will persist into late October. The drought in California seems to be pushing a large ridge up in the West. This ridge will persist into this Winter with a lot of fog in the valley and lots of East winds in PDX. Lower than normal snowpack with little or no lowland snow. In fact a very boring Winter. Similar to 1986-1987. The Midwest and East Coast will have another cold Winter just not as bad as last year. We seem to get a real dump of cold and snow about every 5 years and we just had ours. We also had them in 68-69, 72-73, 78-79, 83-84, 88-89, 92-93, 98-99, 03-03, and 08-09. So probably no big snowstorm this Winter. Of course I could be totally wrong about this Winter but I just don’t see a repeat of last year. Now I really want to see another big snowstorm this Winter, I just won’t wishcast it. This looks to be a mild El Nino Winter coming up so I wouldn’t expect a sever Winter. In the meantime it’s Summer and I intend to enjoy the warm weather as long as it’s here. Peace.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      I’m going conservative and just say a 1-2″ snow event during the Dec-Feb period this winter, just 1 event for PDX. And like usual the southern valleys may end up with slightly more snow.

      If I say none I might end up being wrong, so I’ll go middle ground here. 😉

  15. shane says:

    winter forecast/wishcast anyone? too early? getting excited for the hoodie weather and holiday season

  16. schmit44 says:

    8/18/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:102 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft) & Celilo, East of(225 ft)
    Low: 74 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft) & DW0462 Umatilla(390 ft)

    High:55 at Newport(30 ft) & MT. HOWARD(7910 ft)
    Low: 38 at FOSTER FLAT (5000 ft ) & KIRK (4519 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 52 degrees
    FOSTER FLAT (90/38 ) (5000 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.29″ at EW1735 Central P(1285ft)
    0.23″ at EW5112 Jacksonvi(1972ft)
    0.21″ at CW3932 Central P(1290ft)
    0.19″ at MEDFORD(1339ft)

  17. Dringus says:

    Oh man sweet that Mark is on vacation for the first dustup of 2014. I HATE when I miss those – and the summer one is somewhat rare.

    It’s like the pre-season of NFL football. Ladies, I look forward to more of your purse clutching pecking order arguments over forecasts in the winter to come!

  18. WEATHERDAN says:

    78 at Noon after a morning low of 60. Yesterday Salem hit 92 and today looks similar. Following a midweek cool down to around 80 on Wednesday we climb to 85-90 by next weekend. In fact weather looks nice through the rest of the month. Sort of hazy today but a nice North wind might help to clear out some of the gunk in our skies. Peace.

  19. schmit44 says:

    8/17/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:98 at Medford Viaduct(1360 ft) & ALKALI FLAT(2495 ft) & Celilo, East of(225 ft)
    Low: 73 at HEPP(311 ft) & BLALOK(277 ft) & DW0462 Umatilla(390 ft)

    High:56 at YACHTS Yachats(82 ft)
    Low: 36 at DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 47 degrees
    COLGATE (90/43 ) (3231 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.82″ at KA7IKB-1 Sunrive(4262ft)
    0.73″ at DW9658 Sunriver(4075ft)
    0.60″ at DW9630 La Pine(4256ft)

  20. Karl Bonner says:

    Back to the topic of weather, here is my idea of “wishcasting” some early-season cold air:

    Oct. 13-20: “Indian Summer” continues for The Dalles with eight days at or above 70, including an 80 on the 16th and 17th…

    Then a couple days later:

    Oct. 23: Retrograding upper-level ridge produces the same pattern responsible for arctic outbreaks in winter. Since it’s late October, we just get unseasonably cool air out of Western Canada. 850mb temps down to about -7 in the Lower Columbia Basin, and near -4 over Portland.

    Then the wind dies down and it gets really cold the mornings of the 24th-26th. Say, down to about 30-32 at PDX, mid 20s outside the city, and very near 20 for Hood River and The Dalles. Let’s say high temps only in the 40s for a couple days, too.

    Then on the 27th a storm system comes in, and pulls east wind through the Gorge. Evaporative cooling briefly gives a few flakes in Gresham/Troutdale that don’t stick – but actual sticking snow in the Gorge.

    Methinks it should be manageable by the last week of October, if the air in the Columbia Basin is cool and DRY enough when moisture arrives…

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      I would enjoy some Oct/Nov windstorms. Not sure if many have noticed, we’ve now gone years and years without one. First wind; then snow!! Those are the rules 😉

    • Great post here, Karl. 🙂
      I’m not even scrolling down to the irrelevant stuff. It’s a waste of time IMO.

    • Karl Bonner says:

      Remember the sudden shift from warm weather to “arctic” weather in late October 2003? Just move the whole thing about 5-7 days earlier on the calendar.

      Or for that matter, going from 80 degrees to 2″ of snow in just 2 weeks, in October 1991? It’s happened before in this town…

  21. High Desert Mat says:

    If everyone would just stop and drop it, I think it has passed. Quit blogging about it and lets get back to weather, looks like they have stopped so lets not instigate. Here, I’ll start, Redmond today, high of 91.7 in my station at home with a few cumulous clouds trying to build into t-storms. Rest of week, looks like same for next two days with cooling to low 80’s by Wednesday and beyond.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Almost had some storms here but ended up off to my north mostly. Tomorrow some better chance for K-Falls so we’ll see. :v

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Had a severe t-storm warning here for awhile tonight between 7 and 9pm. Saw lots of lightning and heard thunder off in distance but never came overhead. Still going now but off to my east a bit. Here’s to a great windstorm or two this fall and then some up and down weather for winter, I.E. Cold and snow then warm and sunny etc. etc. etc.

    • dharmabum says:

      “Much ado about nothing!”

  22. W7ENK says:

    Hahaha! Wow…

    I’d just like to point out for the record that I had no part in any of this drama.

    That is all.

  23. WEATHERDAN says:

    76 at 10:00 AM with a few wispy cirrus clouds. 91 today and 94 tomorrow before cooler condition conditions on Tuesday. The trough that was expected later in the week seems to be much less impressive now. A couple of days near 80 the a warm up for next weekend. No super hot weather weather in sight but a lot of warm weather ahead. Next weekend looks to be 86-91. Hey great AMS Summer picnic yesterday. What a great view from atop Mt. Scott. Had a great time talking weather with Pete Parsons and Chuck Wiese. Peace.

  24. The Bad Forecaster says:

    Oh well at least Rob’s forecasts are not as far fetched as that service on the Internet called AccuGarbage. Thankfully we have well trained forecasters like Mark Nelsen around who REALLY know this weather around here or we would ALL really be in trouble.

    I am not here to pick a fight with anyone but I will certainly agree that trying to figure out the context of what is said over any Internet forum can be pretty challenging at times. It’s really hard to figure out on Match.com..lol. Brian, your probably right. Just stick to Facebook..lol

    Anyway, for what it is worth I still think the GFS is pretty useless beyond 7 days and prefer still the ECMWF models because even in the long term they are often (Not always) more accurate.

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      Mine wasn’t a forecast. Uh, nah you’re not worth it either.

    • schmit44 says:

      I am sure you will pat yourself on the back numerous times if you are correct Rob. You know what they say though “A broken clock is right twice a day” so at some point you might get lucky and I am sure we will all hear about how great your forecast was. Heck I bet you will pin a post on your group notifying everyone that you are the boss.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Geez Rob, I don’t think the bad forecaster was being rude to you. Your just being way too defensive. You shouldn’t take it out on everyone when its between you and Brian.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Jokes, sarcasm, and especially criticism (being wrong) are 3 things he can’t take. Just stating a few of the obvious things out there. Won’t say the rest.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      And GOD FORBID anyone with a different opinion. (gasp).

    • Think Mark needs to clean up some unneeded comments here 😦

    • The Bad Forecaster says:

      Geeze Rob. Thanks for the worthy comment on here. Sorry I can’t be as perfect as you in the world. I was only agreeing at least to some extent with you on how it is hard to judge at least at times what someone says on the Internet.

      Oh and yes, trust me here. You are more accurate at least than AccuGarbage here on the Internet. That is a fact. Probably because you are forecasting from here in the PNW and not clear back in Pennsylvania. We all know around here that you can only get an accurate forecast from mainly people who live here in the Northwest every day. It boggles the imagination here how many people still trust the people back in Atlanta and Pennsylvania. Oh yeah, Atlanta. Home of THE WRONG CHANNEL and all of the reality shows that have mostly NOTHING to do with weather ANYWHERE. We have NBC to thank for that since they bought them out. Yeah NBC = Never Broadcasting Correctly. My nephew used to be a cameraman for them in Phoenix and got out of that business to do free lance work and also work for Pac12.net. He said it was the greatest decision he ever made getting away from NBC.

      Anyway Rob, have you ever applied to any of the TV stations in the local area for at least a weekend forecasting job? You might give it a try. We can all then maybe start realizing that you have a lot of credibility in the field of meteorology at least to some degree if you got hired.

      Hope your having a great weekend in the Sun Rob. I know I am. 🙂

    • The Bad Forecaster says:

      Thanks Mat. You are right. I wasn’t. All I was doing was adding my opinion. Sadly it got taken the wrong way as something else. 😦

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      ^ Like always…

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      Why don’t you all STFU

    • schmit44 says:

      Its nice to have Yev back on the blog now. Welcome back buddy 🙂

    • yevpolo1990 says:

      Thank you brian much appreciated.

  25. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Summer 2014 in Klamath Falls, Oregon

    This has been sort of like 2013; very hot 1st half of summer and mixed with lots of convection. Both this summer and last summer were scorching east of the cascades, also in places in eastern Washington as well. Oh and, Medford (yet again) just had their hottest July. oi58.tinypic.com/2qcdmd4.jpg

    So far 27 days have been at or above 90 at KLMT (Klamath Falls Airport). I also took a screenshot of July stats from Wunderground.
    That right here: oi59.tinypic.com/11ala4n.jpg

    Notice that stretch of 90’s, 19 of the first 20 days of July were above 90. This would have been all consecutive if it weren’t for morning time t’storms on 07/11 occurring in the area and with overcast skies until 3pm. Otherwise that day would be low-mid 90’s, making 20 straight days over 90. If only the storms had come around 3-4pm like usual, these numbers would’ve looked twice as good as a whole.

    This is hotter than 2013. And keep in mind last year was impressive for Klamath Falls. NWS Medford said 1st half of summer 2013 had ranked #3 hottest for my area. July 2013 recorded a measly 12 days 90+, and the entire summer had 21 days 90+ from June-September period. Heat “stretches” were hardly a thing last year too. The longest that occurred was 6 days from 06/28 – 07/03. The rest of the 90’s were scattered mostly.

    Another interesting aspect about 2014, is that records which were set last July, were broken this July. I wonder how rare it is that we get “back to back” significant heat 2 summers in a row? Plus let’s not forget the coldest December since the 1970’s in Klamath Falls (Dec 2013), right in the middle of these 2 summers. Although snow has been rather scarce…

    One more thing..

    Summer 2014 Convection

    The atmospheric microwave keeps on popping popcorn!

    So far I’ve had 19 T’storm days. (Individual storms I eventually lost count of, maybe twice that many…) With 2 weeks of August and all of September left in storm season on the east slopes.

    The reason I count the days so closely? We are near reaching the most active t’storm year in more than 30 years in Klamath Falls. 1990 is #1 with 25. 2009 is #2 with 21. The way things are going, I could end up between 22-25 when September comes to a close.

    2013 gave me 16, which is also more than the average.
    2012.. barely any, had only 2 days. One of those storms that year also being cold cored (06/04) with a high temp of only 55. That had to be the worst year for storms on the southern east slopes.

    Luckily, as far as “heat” goes, it should mostly be over. A couple 90’s here and there over the next month is not too bad.

    I hope I covered everything… :v

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Actually Tim it isn’t that uncommon to have two hot Summers in a row. 1950-1952 were hot summers. So was 1966-1967. 2003 and 2004 were both hot. And now 2012-2014 have been hot. Of course it is still more common to get them one at a time. Thank you for the stats on your Summer weather. We don’t often see such stats from east of the Cascades on this blog. Peace.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Down here, 2012 was more or less an average summer, and probably a below average spring season. I’m sure it was warmer other places in the PNW that year though.

  26. Tyler Mode says:

    Cloudy and foggy up here in BG. Low of 56, sadly the coolest low since the 10th.

  27. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    00z GFS/ECMWF look great after Monday-Tuesday cooler weather ahead after upper 80’s to low 90’s.

    Enjoy your weekend!

  28. schmit44 says:

    8/15/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:94 at CW6811 Grants Pa( 947 ft)
    Low: 68 at HEPP(311 ft) & JUNIPR(359 ft)

    High:51 at PRAWS 2 (HURRICA(8754 ft)
    Low: 33 at KIRK (4519 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 45 degrees
    KLAMATH NWR (80/35 ) (4531 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.18″ at DW4535 Cannon Be(23ft)
    0.14″ at CROW FLAT(5172ft)
    0.12″ at CW9803 Elgin(2772ft)

  29. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    4:41 PM CFS Long Range Outlook
    Since our weather is sooooo SLOWWWW right now, how about we look ahead shall we? Way far ahead. Let’s use the always trusty CFS model and look beyond day 40(no laughing!) I’m looking carefully for a few things. When do we see the first legit low pressure center crash into the coast of British Columbia. Next I’m looking for any cold air dropping down from British Columbia/Alberta with an Arctic front and thickness values dropping below 540.

    Day 57 – FCST HR 1074
    September 27th
    An estimated strong 985mb (29.09 in) low swings northeast near Northern Vancouver Island. The first real “storm” and perhaps signaling Fall starting a bit early.
    Now for the fun part…. Winter begins VERY early in 2014! Get excited I’m about to post it. Are you excited yet? Okay.

    Day 66 – FCST HR 1290
    October 6th
    Arctic front! Yep! The air mass isn’t the coldest, but then again it is early October. Arctic front surging quickly south through British Columbia/Alberta. A strong 1045mb high is nosing southward out of the Yukon.

    Day 67 – FCST HR 1314
    October 7th
    Cold air knocking on the door of the Canadian border thickness falling near 540.

    Day 68 – FCST HR 1338
    October 8th (Looks like a lock to me! Done deal!)
    Arctic air spilling south, and what’s this? MOISTURE. Oh really. 522 thickness nearing the Canadian border. 1042mb high along the BC/AB border. YWL-BLI gradient around -12mb out of the Fraser Gorge. Sharp northerly gradient through the Columbia Basin also looks like a OMK-PDT gradient of -12mb to -14mb! Snow looks possible for Bellingham-Everett and throughout the Columbia Basin. Very strong north-northeast winds Omak-Moses Lake-Ephrata-Pasco. Coldest air initially digs south, but slides more eastward with time.

    533 thickness at PDX falling to 526 after midnight. Unless the Columbia Basin were cold with an east wind Snow or even a mix is unlikely. Moisture seem to run out at the coldest air occurs too. Typical. We stay real chilly through Oct 11th as thickness climbs and cold air retreats back to the north.

    *This is only intended for entertainment purposes and I in no way of making a forecast or am actually excited, nor am I expecting any of this to occur. Well, the deep low on September 27th is a definite possibility. BUT this did get me in the mood for the Fall/Winter ahead and when we see computer models spitting out those outlandish numbers, the ridiculously cold air, or prospects for a big south wind storm. You gotta dream sometimes! You gotta believe in la-la land!

    • High Desert Mat says:


    • pappoose in scappoose says:

    • Sifton says:


    • schmit44 says:

      It seems as though the Rob-wishcasting-train has boarded at the SE PDX station.

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      It also seems that the Brian Schmit trolling and provoking train hasn’t changed year after year after year. For God sakes you think that one day, one year you’d change. You truly would think so.

      I’m not sure which part of “*This is only intended for entertainment purposes and I in no way of making a forecast or am actually excited, nor am I expecting any of this to occur.” that you did not understand? Which only further proves your lackluster trolling efforts.

      Brian, you’re a Father now, and this is how you wish to spend or rather waste your time now? Yikes. It’s okay, it was around midnight when you posted, so one can only assume that you chimed in due to either boredom or jealousy. It’s okay. Now, the fun part will be if the other winners chime in with their usual antics. Golly, I hope so.

      Grow up. Just, grow up. Yeah.

      Back to weather!

    • schmit44 says:

      Stop being so defensive. I was making a joke. Maybe if you would get out of your mom’s basement more often you wouldn’t be so uptight all the time? I know I moved outta my moms basement when I was 19. Now that you are 43 you should consider that same thing.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Now now girls. Lets get along. I think Brian was joking Rob and we all know Rob was joking too. Fine I’ll admit it first, I’m the biggest wishcaster on this blog. Glad to claim it too. I want snow and cold more than any other weather. Well, maybe a good zr event that lasted for a few days would be a good one too.

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      Okay, tell me how I or anyone could possibly tell if you were joking? I couldn’t. That’s a problem with the internet though you can’t always tell the tone or intent of what you’re reading, but you didn’t help yourself with a ” lol ” or anything, plus your past history makes it difficult to know if or when you’re joking.

      Yes, I have no sense of humor, clearly that’s why I posted a CFS model outlook for 50+ days away so descriptively. Seriously.

      Anyhow, this won’t be a pissing match. Nope.

      Back to Weather! 80.1 and rising

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      If you had been joking and showed any effort to show that I would have laughed. What a prick

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Back to weather now. 84 here in Redmond with low 90’s the next few days. Maybe a thunderstorm later next week with highs cooling to low to mid 80’s. I smell nor see smoke anymore in these neck of the woods.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      I for one enjoyed that descriptive extended extended forecast Rob. Dont let that one guy stop u from posting here. Keep those forecasts coming lol.

    • schmit44 says:

      Looks like you violated rule #3 on this blog by using profanity. Its really too bad you can’t show some respect for Mark and not use this foul language on here.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Brian, a prick can be something that happens to your thumb. Leave it alone already. I wasn’t offended and nor were most on here.

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      Nah, not going to bother.

    • Karl Bonner says:

      YAY!!! What a wonderful wishcasting/trolling/brawling match in the comments below. Best (i.e. worst) and most entertaining violation of Blog Rule #4 since the “March Arctic Blast” shouting match nearly six months ago.

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      Don’t include me in that. I posted a real fun and ridiculous CFS Outlook. His reply, c’mon he knew exactly the response he was going to get for it. I apologize for nothing. I am really sick and tired of having to explain myself too.

      Well, maybe I’ll post in a few months, but then again maybe not. It’s much nicer in my PDX WX Analysis group when I know we don’t have to worry about any crap like this of any kind! It’s nice having people blocked who can never and will never be a member.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      I thought it was a harmless reply. That’s my opinion though.

    • schmit44 says:

      Well I heard from several members of your group via PM. Many reports from different sources say you are drunk with power in your group and you ban anyone who’s opinion differs from your own.

      Anyone joining the group should beware that Rob wants to be in control of everyone yet somehow can’t even manage to control himself. His language in this public forum is deplorable for a so-called full grown adult man in his mid 40’s.

      He also has been under mod far more times than anyone in the history of this blog. Look what my one sentence joke has led to…another unnecessary explosion by a middle aged man who has nothing better to do than promise weather patterns that never come to fruition.

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      Lol okay. You keep repeating the same things you did a year ago. No one has said anything, but hey, you keep on trying to push my buttons. You’re an Adult, right? an Adult who does that is PATHETIC.

    • dharmabum says:

      so sorry I opened the blog, best to wait until fall arrives!

    • The Bad Forecaster says:

      All I will say is that it is much nicer to be in a group that feels like it is not ruled by a dictator and one that explicitly has documents in the files section naming names of people who are not allowed on your group Rob. I am sorry but that is just mean. I left there because you refused to take them down just because you don’t like Brian and a number of other people out there. Sorry bud, but I can not be on a group that is run like a dictatorship. I also remember well that you felt like I ran my group when I had it that way as well. Well speak for yourself Rob because that is what you are and have been doing for a while. Most of the people you have listed on those documents are my friends and will always be. Shame on you for making people feel like outcasts. 😦

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      Yeah. Ask anyone if they think I’m a Dictator in my group, They will say no. Ask my other Admins, Chris and Derek. They will say no. You’re not in the group for a reason which you’re showing why right now. You and the rest will forever be banned. It’ll never change. Ever. Get over it. Because I don’t like someone? Yeah, constant harassment here by any of you in your “gang” of misdirected Adults, on Facebook for over 2 years, and even on YouTube will do that to someone, not make them like you. I feel like those who can’t figure this out are mentally impaired. You must be.

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      The level of HATE I have towards you idiots is insurmountable.

      Way to take a perfectly harmless, fun post of mine and turn it into a giant pile of CRAP. A moron could figure out this little game you’re all pulling AGAIN like clockwork! One of you chimes in, then another, and another likely all laughing about it on Facebook while giving each other reach arounds.

    • schmit44 says:

      Eh just sleep on it buddy. Tomorrow around noon when you wake up your mommy can make you a breakfast fit for a 43-year old king and then you can ride your BMX bike to the convenient store. Hopefully the low clouds don’t spoil your ride..


    • yevpolo1990 says:

      Rob likes to hang fish on the chain stringers outside the water when it is 80 degrees and sunny. Then pretend like they are alive and let them go back in the water.

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      Oh, wow, okay, so now you’ve become so desperate to harass me that you’re stalking me on a friggin online Fishing Forum? This only further proves everything I said above. You guys couldn’t wait for me to post anything, regardless of the content or how I posted, then you jumped on me. Didn’t you do this 2-3 years ago? Yeah. You all have deep psychological problems. The fact that I have you all blocked and you can’t reach me you’re resorting to that. I feel sorry for you.

    • Larry says:


    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      If you’re having a bad day, just not be on the computer and take a breather…

  30. WEATHERDAN says:

    70 and cloudy at 11:00 AM. Some sun this afternoon should help push us up to about 84 today. Low this morning was 63. This was the 22nd time Salem has stayed above 60 this Summer for an overnight low. Record is 29 in 2013. Previous record was 13 in 1997. These warm overnight lows are unheard of since the Weather Bureau (now the NWS) Salem started keeping records in Salem in 1892. And yes I believe that the UHI does play a part in our overnight lows. In 1960 Salem/Keizer and suburbs were around 70,000. Now that number is nearly 250,000. At night the heat leaves buildings and concrete slower than open land. But other causes are seemingly evident as well. Unfortunately no matter the cause the warming trend seems to be accelerating. I wish all of you a nice weekend. Peace.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Except that the earth as a whole has actually cooled slightly over the last decade.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Its the northern hemisphere that has the media and social sites in a frenzy. I believe humans are the cause of depleted natural resources and slight warming but the earth compensates. Take for instance the south pole, Antarctica, actually has more ice than ever recorded by humans. Is Al Gore your cousin? I’ll repeat a fellow weather blogger in here, you are a living breathing warm bias

    • Garron near Washington Square says:

      WeatherDan, I am interested too. The high temps between HIO, and SLE are quite similar, but the overnight lows aren’t even in the ballpark, IMO. HIO still drops dramatically at night, the way Salem used to. It maybe just an anomaly, or a trend. They’ve done quite a bit of building around the Hillsboro airport in the last 15 years where the readings are taken,but the effects of heat island haven’t transformed the overnight lows the way that I would’ve expected. Thanks for the updates and research!

    • schmit44 says:

      It is arguable that all the irrigation and agriculture around Salem has raised dewpoints at night when winds are light.

    • Garron near Washington Square says:

      Thanks Brian, interesting point. There is an angle I never would have thought of. Mark, start watering your garden more, and a bigger swimming pool if you want warmer summer nights!

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Yes Brian, very perceptive. In fact dewpoints do seem to be higher than they used to be. Back when I was growing up in the 1960,s I used to hang out at the local Weather Bureau office in Salem and I remember the Summer dewpoints being in the 45-53 degree range. Now they seem to be in the 55-63 degree range. It really does feel a lot more humid than it used too. Peace.

  31. David B. says:

    Forecast bust! No mention of showers in today’s forecast up here yet a moderate rain shower is in progress where I am.

  32. Weather Lurker says:

    How much stock should we put in a chart like this when the population in Oregon has grown significantly in the last 100 years(urban heat island effect)? It seems to me that UHI effects low temps more then high temps so I’d be curious to see those averages during the same period.

    I ask this as someone who personally believes in man made climate change but skeptical of much of the information supporting it…

    • Weather Lurker says:

      Just to add to that…

      I know UHI is man made like CO2. I just wonder how much the effects of UHI is confused with, or assumed to be, CO2 caused.

    • David B. says:

      @Lurker: It’s a valid question. Rural stations that have stayed rural still show temperature increases when averaged globally over time.

  33. schmit44 says:

    8/14/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:87 at CW6811 Grants Pa( 947 ft) & ALKALI FLAT(2495 ft) & DW0462 Umatilla(390 ft) & ECHO(683 ft)
    Low: 70 at HEPP(311 ft)

    High:49 at Rim(7050 ft)
    Low: 31 at CRAZYMAN FLAT (6100 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 37 degrees
    Worden (74/37 ) (4080 ft )
    Lakeview, Lake C (73/36) (4734 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    2.16″ at HERMISTON(550ft)
    1.41″ at Upper Speare(1834ft)
    1.10″ at MOSS SPRINGS(5850ft)
    1.01″ at TUPPER(4260ft)
    1.00″ at MADISON BUTTE(5250ft)
    0.91″ at EDEN(4200ft)
    0.73″ at Reese(1034ft)

  34. Karl Bonner says:

    “Is summer getting warmer here? It appears that at least the June-July part is west of the Cascades.”

    Wait a minute…I thought that the most dramatic warming trend was for August-September, not June-July. Remember the post from September 2012 you made, titled “Is Summer Getting Later?” ?

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I needed something dramatic to say TODAY Karl, not in September. I’ll get to that in a month. It is definitely a more obvious warming trend in August/September. Notice it’s not a dramatic change in the chart above.

    • Garron near Washington Square says:

      lol Sorry, just get a real kick out of you two. Karl, thanks for staying on top of Mark, keeping him honest….Someone has to grade the teacher…Nice try Mark, you have to get up pretty early to get one past Karl!!! He’s on it like Donkey Kong!

  35. Jake-(Gresham) says:

    Here’s to us getting a blizzard from the get go in November!

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