Hot Weather Ahead, Thunder Risk Again Too

Just a quick note to let you know I didn’t disappear on vacation.  I’m back for today and Saturday and then all of next week too.

First, remember that today is one of the 3 days in Portland’s history that we made it to our all time record high.  MarkHeatwaveStudio_1981 During a heat wave in 1981 we hit 107 TWICE!  That sandwiched a 105 degree day.  I’m not aware of any hotter 3 days in Portland’s historical record.

We don’t have temps that hot on the way, but the heat is definitely turning up Sunday and Monday.  We may get quite close to 100 degrees again for just the 2nd time this summer on Monday.  That’s because the onshore flow we’ve seen all week will switch to a light OFFSHORE wind Sunday and Monday.  At the same time upper-level ridging builds overhead pushing 850mb temperatures up to around +24 or +25 by Monday.  Those two combined have given us 100 degree temperatures in the past at this time of year.

A real wildcard Monday is cloud cover as an upper-level low to the south pushes moisture up over us.  Obviously this is a thunderstorm pattern too.  So expect warmer nights and humid weather for awhile starting Sunday night.

More tomorrow…

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

15 Responses to Hot Weather Ahead, Thunder Risk Again Too

  1. cgavic says:

    1981…..i was with the forest service Estacada. Barreling down slope east wind into Estacada.
    Hot. But low humidity. That might have also been the year we had weeks of +100°. I’m showing my age, aren’t I.

  2. High Desert Mat says:

    Sophie Soong.

  3. phil in beaverton says:

    Forecasts for Monday seem to be all over the map. Wunderground is calling for 103. NWS going with 93, Fox 12 going with 97. Someone’s Google weather app showed 111 with showers o_0

  4. Paul D says:

    Enough already. Can we just get back to around 80?

  5. WEATHERDAN says:

    Real nice out this morning. Salem dropped to 55 this morning. Coolest since July 30 when we were also 55. 85-88 today with low humidity and low DP. N winds to 15 MPH should make for a very nice afternoon. The fun starts tomorrow with a rise to about 95. On Monday we get to around 100 with increasing dewpoints. Maybe some big boomers Tuesday or Wednesday before we warm up and dry out next weekend. 16th day in a row of at least 80 today in Salem. Record is 27 in 1966. Last low clouds in Salem were on July 20th. Well Mark it’s good to have you back for this week. We have all missed your forecasting expertise. Now that Sophie Sung has left KPTV might we see Bruce Sussman sometime this Fall. His 6 month non competition clause will be up in mid October. Peace.

  6. Garron near Washington Square says:

    Welcome back Mark. Thanks for the update. Is that floater off the central coast of California what we need to watch for our convection?

    http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-west_goes-east/gwir304&width=640&height=480

  7. Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

    Finally this summer the hottest days land on days off.

  8. Tyler Mode says:

    Meanwhile this morning, a comfy 47 degrees here.

  9. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    00z WRF
    Looking at the CAPE model, 500mb winds, vorticity, and Outgoing Longwave (IR)

    CAPE really builds nicely Sunday, but especially Monday encompassing the entire Willamette Valley-PDX/VUO metro area. In fact, high values of 2000 to nearly 3000J/kg is forecast by 8 PM Monday! I think perhaps it’s even more impressive that MUCAPE is projected to remain over 1000J/kg well into Tuesday morning. If that’s true that is very good elevated instability for storms, perhaps very strong ones with hail. I do wonder if the WRF is overdoing things, but I wouldn’t discount it.

    500mb winds turn southerly as early as Saturday afternoon, then gradually back further to the SSE and SE until about 2-5 AM Tuesday. Vorticity charts show one piece of energy moves into southwest Oregon Sunday evening into early Monday AM. Another more organized chunk of energy with a shortwave moves north late Monday night into Tuesday AM. Classic nocturnal elevated outbreak signature.

    Outgoing Longwave (IR)
    Shows a blossoming of storms right in line with the energy aloft moving into southwest Oregon on Sunday evening. 5 PM Monday an absolutely explosion of T-Storms is seen to the south-southeast of PDX metro, some could be Strong to Severe(Slight risk). 8-11 PM Shows this lifts northward. If that transpired I’d think about possible surface based storms even nearing the WiIlamette Valley/PDX metro and MAYBE some Severe Warnings. Odds are very low for this west of the Foothills unless future runs of the SREF show Shear developing and becoming a factor.

  10. schmit44 says:

    8/8/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:94 at Weatherby Rest A(2390 ft) & Medford Viaduct(1360 ft) & UMATILLA RIVER N(363 ft)
    Low: 69 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft) & BLALOK(277 ft) & John Day River B(305 ft) & RUFUS(185 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:56 at Newport(30 ft)
    Low: 32 at DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 46 degrees
    CABIN LAKE (85/39 ) (4560 ft )
    KLAMATH NWR (84/38) (4531 ft)
    Crescent (81/35) (4462 ft)

  11. Mike (Orchards 255') says:

    I remember how hot and dry that week in August was. Even got a day off when the ventilation system went bad at work. I remember while everyone else found a “water” source, I went to the gym and had a great workout (No AC there).

    • runrain says:

      One of those three days (i believe it was a Sunday), my morning flight to Chicago was delayed while the opened up the doors of the aircraft to cool it off!

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