July Ends Very Warm…or Hot

It’s another Friday evening and the weather is about the slowest we get here.  Nearly constant sunshine above 2,000′ and south or east of the Portland metro area for the next 5-7 days.  Occasional low clouds will push onto the coastline and up the Columbia River from Longview to Portland.  That’ll be mainly tomorrow morning and then again later next week.  Here’s a nice view of the eastside low clouds this morning from our newly upgraded Skyline Camera.

We finally installed an HD camera up there a few weeks ago and the view is much better.  I would sure like a weather sensor up there before winter too…we’ll see.

The reason for the slow weather in the upcoming week is a return of the upper level ridge in the Western USA.  The center of the high will remain over Nevada or Southern Idaho, which means we won’t get a sharp thermal trough and offshore flow in the next week.  As a result, high temperatures along the Columbia River from Longview to the Portland metro area won’t get much above 90 degrees.  The warmest temperature we have on our 7 day forecast as of Friday evening is 92.    You can see the ECMWF model’s meteogram (over Portland) showing gradually rising temperatures through midweek then cooling late week.

KPDX_2014072512_dx_240

But if you live in Salem or farther south in western Oregon, farther removed from the marine air, high temps will make it into the mid 90s.  Of course east of the Cascades will be HOT.  Sunday through the rest of next week will see high temps around 100-105 at the lowest elevations and 80s even high up in the mountains.  This will be the 2nd heat wave of the summer over there.

Enjoy the weekend and stay cool next week!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

76 Responses to July Ends Very Warm…or Hot

  1. gidrons says:

    Kudos to the Oregon fire fighters. They’ve done a great job of keeping the latest round of fires contained. They have more challenges on the way — Let’s hope they keep up the good work.

  2. W7ENK says:

    As per usual, Milwaukie got shafted again…

    • chiefWright (Marquam) says:

      That’s a very impressive dome. Buckminster Fuller would be proud.

    • W7ENK says:

      Impressively frustrating! The kind of nightmarish stuff Stephen King writes about which is subsequently made into a TV series…

      At least its consistency makes it predictable.

    • W7ENK says:

      And Bucky ain’t got nuthin’ on the size and strength of this dome!

  3. chiefWright (Marquam) says:

    Hah, here comes the raindrops. Looks like I’ll be making a CoCoRahs report this morning.

    • chiefWright (Marquam) says:

      A phizzle, merely a trace. Didn’t even register on the automatic guage. Atmosphere still too dry.

  4. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Keep ’em comin!

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    318 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

    THE BACK OR SOUTHERN EDGE TO THE ASSOCIATED INFRARED CLOUD MASS IS SLOWLY MOVING
    NORTH AND SHOULD CLEAR OUR SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON ZONES LATER THIS MORNING. UNTIL THEN…THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
    AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.

    THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK VORTICITY ALOFT OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON…SO EXPECT A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER
    THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE SHORT WAVE…WILL ALSO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
    THUNDERSTORMS BACK WEST TOWARD THE WILLAPA HILLS AND THE NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE…AND INCLUDE AN ADJACENT PIECE OF THE PORTLAND AND
    VANCOUVER AREA AS WELL.

    • B1900 Pilot says:

      Very, very impressive show tonight. Best on the westside of Portland in years. Lightning every 30 seconds, 80% Cloud to Cloud, 20% Cloud to Ground. Most impressive sheet lightning I’ve ever seen here in Portland. Great for watching, since it’s very high up and the thunder is very distant, even though the lightning bolts appear close by. Too bad this is happening at 3:00 am. If this was at 9 or 10, everyone would be talking about it the next day.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Thunder wasn’t distant for a time here. Lightning and thunder were simultaneous and loud. Power flashing on/off.

    • B1900 Pilot says:

      Well, great watching for me in Portland. Probably better to stay inside for you in Scappoose. :^) For the record, the convective sigmet issued for pilots in the area reported the tops of clouds at 40,000 feet, moving almost due north at about 25 knots (or 30 mph).
      WSUS33 KKCI 010955
      SIGW
      CONVECTIVE SIGMET 45W
      VALID UNTIL 1155Z
      OR WA
      FROM 30NNW BTG-10WNW EUG
      LINE TS 35 NM WIDE MOV FROM 17025KT. TOPS TO FL400.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Was a great show, Pilot. Concerned for a time, I’d be blasted off the deck!

    • gidrons says:

      Even with the windows open, I slept through all but the tail end of it. Yet another drawback of alcohol consumption.

  5. Garron near Washington Square says:

    pretty impressive light show this morning! I didn’t realize that is wasn’t the neighbors doing fireworks again until the a/c shut off and I heard the rain.

  6. Taylor says:

    Thunder becoming more frequent in Happy Valley

  7. runrain says:

    Amazing CG in many directions from Happy Valley! Distant thunder but quite a show. Eric’s wishcastellanus came thru!

  8. paulbeugene says:

    Very impressive nocturnal lightning display at Black Butte Ranch 1-2 hours ago. There was some rain falling so hopefully that may help a bit with potential fire issues.
    Sounds like decent t-storms over Willamette Valley going on. Would be interesting to see if cell NE of Roseburg holds together as it moves N toward Eugene vicinity.

    • chiefWright (Marquam) says:

      I’d say it’s doing a lot more than holding together. I5 corridor is lighting up!
      NWS issued a short term forecast about 1/2 hr ago.

  9. Taylor says:

    Lots of flashes of lightning and bolts I can see from Clackamas really cool to watch!

  10. Theresa says:

    Over here in Millersburg, just outside of Albany…loud thunder and many lightening strikes coming from all directions. Live in the country, able to see it all.

  11. schmit44 says:

    7/31/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:105 at WARM SPRINGS BAS(1563 ft) & John Day River B(305 ft)
    Low: 75 at BLALOK(277 ft) & JUNIPR(359 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:57 at Newport(30 ft) & NERRS METEOROLOG(9 ft) & YACHTS Yachats(82 ft)
    Low: 41 at DIMLKE (4726 ft ) & KIRK (4519 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 50 degrees
    CW5507 Camp Sher (99/49 ) (3020 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.08″ at CW1038 Sumpter(4321ft)
    0.88″ at CRANE PRAIRIE(5500ft)

  12. Boydo3 N. Albany says:

    Sitting on the back deck listening to the crickets, looking at some good lightning bolts to the west over the coast and coast range. Feeling the breeze….ah, summer time!

    • Boydo3 N. Albany says:

      Oh boy, getting good around here now. Mostly on the coast range. But some good elevated stuff too

  13. Taylor says:

    I think we might have some Thunder tonight! Its sprinkling or was sprinkling in Clackamas and it’s still 80 degrees! Things are hopefully going to get interesting.

  14. Hal in Aims says:

    has really mugged up here……84…..some clouds and no wind/breeze…..

  15. paulbeugene says:

    Have had three consecutive evenings with thunderstorms here at Black Butte Ranch, not bad although none of the storms qualified as severe in my opinion. Hoping for another round of storms tonight but am not optimistic as best chances may be farther W/NW

    As alluded to earlier today by another poster, the HRRR 3km has been increasingly bullish in convection developing after midnight over the Willamette Valley, N of Sweet Home to Corvallis line.

  16. WEATHERDAN says:

    93 with increasing clouds in Salem at 4:15 PM. There is a line of showers and Thunderstorms moving up the valley from the South. Behind the line the skies clear rapidly. Might hit Salem by 5:00 PM. Looks to be up around 90 for perhaps another week. Hottest Summer in almost 50 years. Loving every minute of it. Peace.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      I agree. A great summer indeed. The heat over here tho is a little much with everyday being in mid to upper 90’s but with lots of thunderstorms this year it makes it ok. Except for the fires that is. For you guys in the valley the summer will quickly come to an end in a month or so. Fog, low clouds, rain, no thanks. Oh and the nastiness of the gangs and dirtballs in Salem as well. Yuck!! Lol. Playin Dan, dont get panties in a wad.

  17. Aloha Rainshadow says:

    Latest HRRR run at 18z shows a outbreak of storms over PDX around Midnight tonight…interesting.

    • W7ENK says:

      Lots of ACCAS around the West side today, precursor to something perhaps? I guess I’d better head to bed early tonight then, because after that first clap of thunder, there’s no more sleeping for this guy!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Interesting, yes!

      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
      240 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

      MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER DO
      SHOW SOME DESTABILIZATION ALOFT LATER TONIGHT BETWEEN THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE AS THE SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT N…SO
      IN ADDITION TO KEEPING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER THE CASCADES…WILL EXTEND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS W TO THE
      COAST RANGE. MODELS IN GENERAL INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE OF THE REGION FRI MORNING SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
      CONVECTION INTO FRI MORNING ACROSS THE N.

    • Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

      Bring it on! A late evening -TSTM would be a great way to end the month of July (barring any fire starts, of course).

  18. schmit44 says:

    7/30/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:108 at JUNIPR( 359 ft)
    Low: 79 at JUNIPR(359 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:55 at EW4604 Waldport(164 ft) & Newport(30 ft)
    Low: 37 at KIRK (4519 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 51 degrees
    Beatty (92/41 ) (4320 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.54″ at CW1010 Sisters(3189ft)

  19. WEATHERDAN says:

    76 at 11:00 AM Under clear skies Salem dropped to 55 this morning. Humidity is up a bit today as well. Another day of the RRR Part 2. Ridiculously resilient ridge. As long as this ridge remains where it is and there are no forecasts for it to go away soon we will remain warm to hot here in Oregon. Twice since 1892 Salem has had over 30 days over 90 in a Summer. 34 in 1958, and 31 in 1967. If we remain warm in August and September will might just be the third time. Back East Summer has any but warm this year. But even so it still beats their typical Winters. Go Dodgers. Peace.

    • W7ENK says:

      Better to have this ridge now than in January like a couple of recent years, eh? I’m loving this weather!! 😀

    • Karl Bonner says:

      It’s more of a Mediterranean type pattern this summer with consistent warmth but not much extreme heat or cool (save those fee days days). The higher dewpoints and T-storms add to the Med feel.

    • Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

      I’ve noticed the dew points running upper 50s to low 60s which seems odd.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Maybe not a lot of heat up North. But down here in Salem we have had over 15 days over 90 already this Summer. We should be somewhere between 93-96 today. 78 at 11:00 AM. This morning’s low was 62. A few altocumulus castelleanus Southeast quadrant. Peace.

  20. schmit44 says:

    7/29/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:108 at DW0462 Umatilla( 390 ft) & JUNIPR(359 ft)
    Low: 77 at BLALOK(277 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:54 at Newport(30 ft)
    Low: 40 at KIRK (4519 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 50 degrees
    LaPine (US 97 MP (96/46 ) (4600 ft )
    DW9636 La Pine (94/44) (4236 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.53″ at Lorella(4160ft)
    0.37″ at ANTELOPE(6460ft)
    0.37″ at EW3480 Ashland(2333ft)
    0.36″ at DW9680 Sunriver(4164ft)
    0.35″ at CRANE PRAIRIE(5500ft)

  21. David B. says:

    76 here and the sea breeze is really starting to kick in.

  22. W7ENK says:

    Massive Cb exploding over the Cascades over Mt. Jefferson, moving North toward Mt. Hood, and some Altocumulus Wishcastellanus rapidly forming over the Southern metro area…

    Let the fun begin!! 😆

  23. Randy says:

    off topic. I seem to recall that the highest average high temp in Portland was 79 degrees back in the 70’s and early 80’s. The highest average high now is 82 dgerees. Does anyone know if my memory is correct? If it is, 3 degree average temp increase in 30-35 years. 1 degree per decade. In 100 years, we will be averaging over 90.

    • David B. says:

      I believe that was the highest monthly average daily high, which is different than the average high for any single day. The monthly average daily highs would be cooler, because the late July / early August warmest time of the year readings get “diluted” by cooler early July and late August ones.

    • umpire says:

      I believe the National Weather Service recalculates those averages every 10 years, using a thirty year period to smooth the changes. Randy, I think your memory is correct – and these averages are actually daily averages. Just in the past couple of years we bumped from 81 to 82 for our averages over late July through mid-August.

  24. David B. says:

    Looks like lots of afternoons in the upper 70s on tap for me… nice!

  25. schmit44 says:

    7/28/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:107 at Medford Viaduct(1360 ft)
    Low: 77 at ALKALI FLAT(2495 ft) & JUNIPR(359 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:56 at NERRS METEOROLOG(9 ft) & Newport(30 ft) & YACHTS Yachats(82 ft)
    Low: 36 at DIMLKE (4726 ft ) & KIRK (4519 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 56 degrees
    DW9636 La Pine (95/39 ) (4236 ft )

  26. Russ in Tigard says:

    Hey Mark,

    I noticed that over on forecast.io it shows the GFS predicting temps climbing after midweek to highs in the upper 90s by next Monday. Any idea why the GFS and ECMWF are so divergent on this pattern?

    Thanks,

    Russ

  27. Garron near Washington Square says:

    Current W. Valley temps at 1 pm, today vs. yesterday, + highs reached yesterday=…
    PDX 81 today at 1pm, vs 80, high yesterday= 88
    HIO 84 today at 1pm, vs 82, high yesterday=90
    McMinnville 87 vs 82, hi yesterday=89
    Salem 84 today, 79 yesterday at this time, = high of 88
    Eugene is 87 today, 79 yesterday at 1pm. High yesterday in Eugene was 89.

  28. W7ENK says:

    Mark, what are those blue bars on the 2nd and 3rd on the graph you posted? I would assume precip, but the precip amount row below that stays at 0.0

    Just curious…

  29. schmit44 says:

    7/27/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:105 at ALKALI FLAT(2495 ft)
    Low: 70 at LITTLE MCCOY CRE(5080 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:57 at Newport(30 ft) & NERRS METEOROLOG(9 ft)
    Low: 36 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 53 degrees
    EW2055 Prairie C (96/43 ) (3547 ft )
    EW3547 Seneca (94/41) (4810 ft)
    CRANE PRAIRIE (89/36) (5500 ft)

  30. pappoose in scappoose says:

    “You heard of Sharknado. Can you imagine Frognado? For some reason, I like flying frogs better than flying sharks…much safer.”

    http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/07/showers-of-toads.html

    • Garron near Washington Square says:

      Right you are Pappoose! Just glad that Godzilla was on vacation during the last big earthquake off the Japanese coast.

  31. WEATHERDAN says:

    If Salem hits 90 Sunday through Thursday and it looks like we will, we will end up with 17 days over 90 in July . The most ever in July and second only to the 19 in August 1967. That was a blistering hot summer and so far so is this. This is the third hot Summer in a row after the two cool ones in 2010 and 2011. Overall we have had warmer than normal Summers most of the time since the late 1990,s. Our overnight temps have really shot up during this time frame more the day time temps. Is this indicative of global climate change? I will leave that up to the climatologists. But on a local level our climate sure has changed. Of course it could also be that as Salem/Keizer has grown to almost 200,000 we are getting more of an urban heat island effect. Growing up in Salem in the 1960,s our Summer overnight lows were mostly 43-53. Now they are mainly 55-65. Almost 30% warmer! By contrast our daytime highs have gone up by at most 5%, Whatever the reason I do enjoy Summer more than Winter. And last Winter was a very good one with lots of snow and even subzero temps in the Willamette Valley. Peace.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      The question I have is, how many more times this summer are we all going to have to hear that overnight lows are a little warmer than average? Who knows, maybe next summer they will be lower than average. That’s why it is an average.

    • Sifton says:

      What an awesome summer so far eh Dan!?! Peace….

    • Eugene Dave says:

      “30% warmer!” does not work on the Celsius or Fahrenheit temperature scales. For example, if it rose from 1 degree to 2 degrees, it would be “twice as warm!”, which is obviously incorrect.

    • Garron near Washington Square says:

      Question? Has the area changed around where the measurements are taken by that much, or has there been a change in locations that the measurements are taken in the last 50 years? I do believe the heat island effect is predominately the cause down there, but just wondering what an educated observer like yourself could inject into the observations. Thanks WeatherDan for your perspectives and enjoy the heat!

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Temps are taken at AFOS site at McNary Field municipal Airport where obs have taken since 1928. From 1892 to 1927 obs were taken at a downtown location. Upon recalculation lows have risen about 26%. From 46 to 58. The point is that low temps have jumped significantly over the last 50 years at the same location. This is a long term trend for sure. Even when we have had cooler than normal max temps in Summers like 2010 and 2011 the overnight lows have been consistently warmer than 50 years ago. As Casey Stengel once wryly observed “You could look it up” Hey Matt ever notice the stock market. It too goes up and down but the ups have been getting higher and higher over the long term. And peculiar thing is that the NWS and the CPC keep updating their averages. Averages are not static Matt. They are usually based on say the last 30 years. Mark constantly keeps reminding us each Winter that our long term snowfall has decreased significantly over the last 130 years here in Northwest Oregon. An average annual snowfall in Portland is much less than in say 1950. Oh by the way Matt this forum is to discuss weather and climate. Not to initiate personal criticisms. If you have something to say about my comments please feel free to comment on my statement. But personal attacks are beneath you. Still I hope you are having a great day Matt. Peace.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      No hidden critisisms at all Dan. Just an observer that I for one think global warming is a natural cycle the earth goes through since its birth and that there is cycles within cycles. Jesse nailed it on the head a few days ago, you are a living breathing warm bias. Bias meaning the strongest word in that phrase. Explain to me the -12 degree temp Eugene had this past winter and all the other cold temps throughout this past winter not to mention 2008 of all means as well. The overnight lows will even out sooner or later. For you to mention them almost daily is redundant. Fine, I’ll say it, I have a cold bias but I don’t mention it throughout winter constantly. Peace

    • David B. says:

      @Dave – True; comparisons like “30% warmer” are only meaningful in an absolute temperature scale like Kelvin. Going from 1°C to 2°C does not make for a doubling of thermal energy, but going from 100K to 200K does.

      @WEATHERDAN – Both increasing CO₂ and the urban heat island effect interfere with nighttime cooling. Comparisons with nearby rural stations that have stayed rural would be useful for helping to distinguish between the two.

    • David B. says:

      Absolute zero is -273.15°C or -459.67°F, so an increase from 46°F to 58°F is really (12×100) / (46+459.67) = 2.37% warmer.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Matt whether or not climate change is natural or not most reputable scientists agree it is occurring. As for record cold if you would look deeper into the subject you would see it is part of the model. And even in a warming climate you can still have record cold, just not as much as before. The climate change model calls for more extremes in our weather which is happening more and more. Even if it is part of a natural cycle it can still be destructive. Peace

  32. schmit44 says:

    7/26/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:100 at ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft) & NORTH FORK JOHN(1975 ft)
    Low: 65 at BLALOK(277 ft) & ALKALI FLAT(2495 ft) & John Day River B(305 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:59 at NERRS METEOROLOG(9 ft) & Newport(30 ft)
    Low: 30 at KIRK (4519 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 57 degrees
    FOSTER FLAT (92/35 ) (5000 ft )

  33. schmit44 says:

    HEATWAVE CONTEST ENTRY FORM
    Heatwave contest #2 here: Deadline to enter will be at 1000am tomorrow morning. Lets see if this one is a difficult forecast like the one two weeks ago.
    http://www.directpaintsaleswa.com/JULY2014_HEATWAVE2/add.php

  34. Paul D says:

    Ugh! Too hot. Been enjoying below 80.

  35. schmit44 says:

    7/25/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:95 at ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft)
    Low: 60 at HEPP(311 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:57 at MT. HOWARD(7910 ft)
    Low: 25 at Horse Ridge (US (4160 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 54 degrees
    CABIN LAKE (84/30 ) (4560 ft )
    Horse Ridge (US (79/25) (4160 ft)

  36. MasterNate says:

    All this above average warm to hot weather means poor blueberry quality. Much of the fruit is going into the freezers for peoples holiday pies, smoothies, baking ect… I look forward to the winter holidays because it means more exciting weather.

    • W7ENK says:

      You’ve been getting your blueberries from the wrong place then. I have friends just South of Silverton with 10,000 blueberry plants on their acrage, and they’ve had a bumper year. Their early varieties were huge and sweet, and the late ones still have yet to ripen – really close though. Even up in the higher elevations, the huckleberries (wild blueberry) have been more abundant than I’ve ever seen, and they’re Ohhhh so goooood!!

      If you’d like, I can point you toward some really good blueberries…

  37. Tyler Mode says:

    That’s amazing quality. I love new, high quality web cams.

    Looking forward to warm, but not too hot temps.

  38. paulbeugene says:

    Will be “stationed” at Black Butte Ranch next week. Missed out on the severe thunderstorms last Tuesday. Given that I will be there for 7 days, good chance of seeing at least one or two even though coverage daily will be fairly sparse.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I’ll be close…camping at Big Lake the next two nights and then maybe Olallie Lake for another two.

    • Boydo3 N. Albany says:

      Say hello to my son Casey, he runs Robert’s pub on the golf course. Tell him his dad sent you and you might get some comps…:)

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