Sprinkles/Shower Sunday Morning and Impressive Fire Stats

A dying cold front will push some light rain showers or maybe just sprinkles inland on Sunday morning.  I don’t expect much, and much of the westside of the metro area might not even see a sprinkle.  We’re talking really light stuff folks!  Take a look at our RPM rain forecast:

RPM_RAIN_NWOREGON

Then the WRF-GFS forecast from the UW showing no one in the lowlands will get more than .05″:

or_pcp48.48.0000

None of this will make it east of the Cascades of course which is bad news for the fires over there.  I have never seen such an outbreak of fires all at the same time.  Oregon Department of Forestry said this morning that there were at least 50 small fires on the Mt. Hood National Forest.  You could see several of those from Timberline Lodge yesterday and today.  Take a look at the USFS web cam up there this afternoon:

????????????????????????????????????

I even see one west of the Cascade crest too.

The fire stats are impressive, a third of a million acres have burned in the past week just here in Oregon!  A large percentage of that is from the fast-moving range fire east of Burns.

MarkForestFires_AcresNowvsPDXMetro

Put that on a map of the metro area and that would mean an area from Hillsboro to Gresham and Salmon Creek to Oregon City would be blackened!

MarkForestFires_AcresNowvsPDXMetro2

Looking ahead, models seem to be converging on the idea of a cool trough giving us widespread showers the middle of next week, then ridging popping back up afterwards.  You can see the cooling then warming on the freshly minted 00z GFS ensemble chart this evening:

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

The ECMWF warms things up quicker later next week with the ridge:

KPDX_2014071812_dx_240

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

30 Responses to Sprinkles/Shower Sunday Morning and Impressive Fire Stats

  1. schmit44 says:

    7/21/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:90 at PROVOLT SEED ORC(1180 ft) & CW6811 Grants Pa(947 ft) & DW5789 Eagle Poi(1463 ft)
    Low: 69 at ALKALI FLAT(2495 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:56 at Newport(30 ft)
    Low: 40 at CRAZYMAN FLAT (6100 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 39 degrees
    PRINEVILLE 4NW (84/45 ) (2839 ft )
    DW9636 La Pine (81/42) (4236 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.53″ at GRASSY MOUNTAIN(4560ft)
    0.41″ at DANNER(4225ft)

  2. JERAT416 says:

    The incoming rain should help with the fires at least we can hope!

  3. Jesse-Stevenson says:

    So I see that a poster has taken it upon himself to make that rather sweeping statement that our summers are getting hotter and longer. Any actual numbers backing up this claim or is this just 100% anecdotal?

  4. WEATHERDAN says:

    69 and mostly cloudy here in Salem at 11:00 AM. Our overnight low was warmer than I expected at 57. Currently there is a lot of Virga over SW Oregon as far N as Eugene. With a rising CAPE and this high and mid level moisture coming up over us and with the expected afternoon heating it seems reasonable to see some convective activity over Western Oregon someplace today. As of now no well developed CU but the day is early. Nice heatwave expected for us in Salem this weekend. Mid 90,s seems plausible. With 3 more days of 90 or more we will have the 2nd highest number of days in a calender month ever recorded here in Salem since weather records started in 1892. The all time record is 19 in August of 1967. The way this Summer is going who knows. Peace.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Dan, just out of curiosity, how was the fire season in 1967? Seems really bad this year.

  5. Tyler Mode says:

    Nice chilly morning. 45 degrees here in Battle Ground.

  6. WEATHERDAN says:

    Cloudy and 67 at 10:00 PM. Might drop down to 53 tonight, That would be the second coolest night of the month so far. If we are real lucky we might get close to half an inch of rain on Wednesday. Then another heat wave for the weekend. Peace.

  7. schmit44 says:

    7/20/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:99 at DW9659 Richland(2379 ft) & CW6811 Grants Pa(947 ft) & MERLIN SEED ORCH(1144 ft) & PROVOLT SEED ORC(1180 ft)
    Low: 69 at ECHO(683 ft) & BLALOK(277 ft) & CW1075 Boardman(322 ft) & RUFUS(185 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:55 at TIDEWATER(2035 ft) & HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160 ft)
    Low: 30 at DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 51 degrees
    DIMLKE (81/30 ) (4726 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.22″ at BASQUE HILLS(5080ft)

  8. High Desert Mat says:

    Mike, actually the PNW has a lot of different climates so to say it has four seasons is a broad term. Take the coast for instance, it usually has 2 seasons and the valley sometimes in some years three. East of the cascades sometimes only has two. So I agree with Jason.

  9. WEATHERDAN says:

    Yes it does like perhaps a new heat wave starting next weekend. And yes I do remember all those hot Summers like 1967. One big difference however between 1967 and 2014 is the much warmer overnight lows now. In July of 1967 Salem averaged 85.0 for a maximum and 49.8 for a minimum. This year so far in July we are at 89.1 for a maximum and 58.7 for the minimum. The combined average for July of 1967 was 67.4 and for 2014 so far 73.9. A difference of 6.5 degrees. Our Summers have been getting longer and hotter. Today is gloriously cloudy and only 67 at 11:40 AM. The first clouds in a week. It looks like a good chance of some convective activity on Tuesday or Wednesday. That may or may not be good news for the Forrest fire situation depending on how much rain falls during that time frame. So far not a drop of rain today only these clouds which look like they are now starting to thin a little. Peace.

    • Garron near Washington Square says:

      Kinda interesting. It sounds like Salem is the new Roseburg. I can only wonder what the next 50 years in Portland will be like? With the heat island effect, as you guys are probably starting to deal with, we’ll have overnight lows staying above 70. Wonder if we’ll start seeing more metro area thunderstorms due to increased heating, and moisture due to the rivers surrounding us? And then with all the palm trees Karl Bonner has been planting in The Dalles, they will be like Palm Springs! Thanks WeatherDan for the perspective. I have been keeping daily tallies between you guys down south, and I thought the trend was interesting too. It “seems” like we get the marine influence more often, and quicker than Eugene. During the summer time, I always used them as the yard stick for when heat lows were migrating inland, and if morning clouds were going to stick around more or less than forecast. But, that has been less and less reliable lately. That is a complete reversal from I remember 20 years ago. Is it a trend, or just a weather anamoly?

    • Garron near Washington Square says:

      …it “seems” like the marine influence affects Portland more often and quicker than Eugene…

  10. Jason Hougak says:

    Last night I told my wife it felt like a fall evening, getting some clouds drifting in, cool breeze, and daylight hours on the downward swing. Would you know it, we’ve got a steady shower this morning in the foothills. Ahhh, fall and hunting season on its way… if there are any forests left. With the development of an El Niño I’m wondering if this winter will do more harm than good to the state?

    • dharmabum says:

      you can always have the deer that are feeding on my orchard trees.

    • Boydo3 N. Albany says:

      Or one of the herd living in my neighborhood. In fact,at this moment, a doe and fawn are drinking out of the wading pool I set up in the yard for our grand daughter.

  11. Jason Hougak says:

    You can thank those fires due to our lack of mtn. snow and people complaining about being sick of winter weather

  12. schmit44 says:

    7/19/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:102 at EW3335 Jacksonvi(1390 ft)
    Low: 71 at BLALOK(277 ft) & RED MOUND(1753 ft) & RUFUS(185 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:57 at Newport(30 ft)
    Low: 36 at KIRK (4519 ft ) & DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 50 degrees
    EW3335 Jacksonvi (102/52 ) (1390 ft )
    KLAMATH NWR (89/39) (4531 ft)
    Sand Creek (US 9 (87/37) (4525 ft)

  13. Tyler Mode says:

    Two years ago today we had a nice lightning show. It’s not often storms stick around or last long enough to actually photograph west of the Cascades.

  14. Andrew says:

    I was just at Timberline earlier today myself, and looking off to the southwest there’s a lot of smoke up in the air.

  15. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Sure hope we get the showers next week, and let them be heavy, please.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Bring on the wet Strays!

      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
      940 AM PDT SAT JUL 19 2014

      THE MODELS INDICATE THE OFFSHORE UPPER LOW ITSELF WILL MOVE ONSHORE ABOUT WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST THURSDAY WITH DRYING
      BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MODELS ARE VARYING WITH THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW…BUT IF IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR FORECAST AREA…WE
      COULD SEE SOME WET THUNDERSTORMS OVER AT LEAST THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. TOLLESON

  16. Karl Bonner says:

    If the ridge next weekend materializes and it gets hot for a few days again, July 2014 WILL go down as one of the warmest on record, even if it doesn’t beat 1985.

  17. Mike (Orchards 255') says:

    Scary given we are only in the middle of July. 😦

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