Sprinkles/Shower Sunday Morning and Impressive Fire Stats

July 18, 2014

A dying cold front will push some light rain showers or maybe just sprinkles inland on Sunday morning.  I don’t expect much, and much of the westside of the metro area might not even see a sprinkle.  We’re talking really light stuff folks!  Take a look at our RPM rain forecast:

RPM_RAIN_NWOREGON

Then the WRF-GFS forecast from the UW showing no one in the lowlands will get more than .05″:

or_pcp48.48.0000

None of this will make it east of the Cascades of course which is bad news for the fires over there.  I have never seen such an outbreak of fires all at the same time.  Oregon Department of Forestry said this morning that there were at least 50 small fires on the Mt. Hood National Forest.  You could see several of those from Timberline Lodge yesterday and today.  Take a look at the USFS web cam up there this afternoon:

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I even see one west of the Cascade crest too.

The fire stats are impressive, a third of a million acres have burned in the past week just here in Oregon!  A large percentage of that is from the fast-moving range fire east of Burns.

MarkForestFires_AcresNowvsPDXMetro

Put that on a map of the metro area and that would mean an area from Hillsboro to Gresham and Salmon Creek to Oregon City would be blackened!

MarkForestFires_AcresNowvsPDXMetro2

Looking ahead, models seem to be converging on the idea of a cool trough giving us widespread showers the middle of next week, then ridging popping back up afterwards.  You can see the cooling then warming on the freshly minted 00z GFS ensemble chart this evening:

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

The ECMWF warms things up quicker later next week with the ridge:

KPDX_2014071812_dx_240

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen