At 3pm showers and even a lone thunderstorm popping up over the Coast Range and Cascades
Luckily Sophie and I saw 00z models last night keeping us dry most of the day in the metro area and made a dramatic change to the forecast (towards dry). I think the showers will just gradually fill in through the evening hours with a slight chance of thunder.
We’ve got a wet system on Friday too, plus leftover showers in onshore flow Saturday. After that we get at least 3 days of warmer than average summer weather the beginning of next week. Notice the jump in 850mb temps on both the 12z ECMWF and 12z GFS ensemble charts. Ensemble means are both right around +15 Monday and Tuesday, which supports mid 80s in late June or early July. Quite a bit of variability (spread in ensemble members) on a cool trough approaching for…4TH OF JULY! We’ll see how that goes.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen