Showers Return This Week

A line of light rain moved through the Willamette Valley this evening, although it didn’t produce much

PLOT_Rain_Metro_Autoplot

This was after another very warm day…temperatures into the lower 80s across the Portland metro area.

My vacation went well; my family and I spent 6 days camping in Maupin, Thompson Reservoir (near Silver Lake), Eagle Lake (CA), Mt. Lassen (CA), and Lake Almanor (CA).  Spent 6 hours in Quincy, California waiting for a front end alignment and new tires, that was in interesting little town.    The next 4 days were spent at Squaw Valley, California at the 42nd AMS Broadcasters Conference.

I noticed two themes during our travel.  First, if you don’t have a real warm ridge overhead in June, temperatures up around 4,000-7,000′ elevations are going to be chilly!  We woke up to frost at Thompson Reservoir and again the first night at Squaw Valley, although in that location it was viewed from a  hotel room so quite a bit more tolerable!  If you’re headed to the higher elevations (most of northern California and southern Oregon east of the Cascades/Sierra), you want a hot ridge overhead.  The other thing I noticed everywhere was the drought.  All reservoirs and lakes are low.  At Eagle Lake the marina was totally dry with docks sitting on dry land.  Goose Lake between Lakeview and Alturas appears to be totally dry.  That does happen every few years, but it seems early in the season for that.  Lake Tahoe was a bit low too.  Okay, one more thing…there is nothing of any interest on US 395 between Alturas and Susanville.  That was the deadest 70 miles I’ve seen since a trip across Nevada a few years ago!

Moving on to weather…I missed a thunderstorm day a week ago, but maybe we can get some action in here either Wednesday or Friday as a cool upper-level trough and westerly flow moves overhead the 2nd half of the week.  It also appears we’ll get a good soaking one or both of those days.

Models show the wet westerly flow amplifying a bit the first half of next week for warmer temps, like what we just saw the past two days.  Notice the ECMWF meteogram is quite warm along with the GFS ensemble chart too next Monday-Wednesday.

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Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

18 Responses to Showers Return This Week

  1. Dave in South Salem (500') says:

    Radar says its raining. GOLU model says dry and cloudy

  2. W7ENK says:

    Hello from Estonia!

    I’ve been here a week, and it’s been unseasonably cool. Tallinn, the capitol city has not been above 60 degrees since I got here, and it’s been even cooler out in the countryside. We went to the far Eastern edge of the country near Russia on the shore of Peipsi Lake for the Summer Solstice holiday, but it poured rain all night long which kept us mostly indoors. The next day we drove back to Tallinn and attended a citywide Solstice festival, but it rained on us again. The sun finally peeked out just before sunset around 11pm, and by the time we left about 1:30am the sky had cleared, fog set in and the temperature dropped to 0C in some places around the town. That has never happened on midsummer before.

    I’m hearing it is supposed to warm up and dry out a bit for the song festival. We’ll see…

    I hope everything is going well over on that side of the planet! Glad you made it home okay, Mark.

    • Garron near Washington Square says:

      Sounds like a good time over there. We’re going to have a pineapple express here. Maybe a few brief t-storms, and an inch of rain…a sure sign that our “much warmer and drier summer forecast” is well under way! Thanks for those cool pics, and enjoy your vacation Erik. PS, if you look at this loop, I think the rain festival you guys enjoyed, and the pineapple express have now combined and is now on our door step!

      http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir_common_full+12

    • Dave in South Salem (500') says:

      In my experience, Estonia, like Portland, can be the same temperature in December as in June.

  3. A little foggy up here in Battle Ground this morning. It was clear right at sunrise however.

    Mild with a low of 53.

  4. schmit44 says:

    6/24/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:90 at LAKE OWHEE AND O(2400 ft) & DW0069 Ferndale(840 ft) & Ontario Municipa(2188 ft)
    Low: 71 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:51 at Timberline Lodge(6001 ft) & Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft)
    Low: 30 at DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 44 degrees
    ILLINOIS VALLEY (86/42 ) (1389 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.23″ at AA7OA Astoria(240ft)

  5. Garron near Washington Square says:

    A second day in a row when diurnal heating ends earlier than the normal time frame for this time of year. On a typical late June day, peak heating ends between 5 and 7PM. The last two days, it has been between 2-4PM due to clouds building during the afternoon heating, and wind direction changes from the coast. Just like days that the coastal areas hit their high temps before noon, and wind changes from off shore to on shore, dropping temps from the mid 80’s to 70 degrees F in a matter of minutes…Just my boring weather climate fact of the day…

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=KPDX&num=168&raw=0&dbn=m

  6. runrain says:

    So, looking good and maybe even hot for the 4th? Is that the latest guess-cast?

  7. Sapo says:

    At least 4th of July is looking decent.

  8. WEATHERDAN says:

    73 and partly sunny in Salem at 1:00 PM. Just a few drops of rain last night and none today. Looks like about .25-.33 in the Wednesday through Friday time frame. Then from Saturday on into early July it looks like we warm up into the mid 80,s. Salem has had just ,29 so far this month so we really could use a good soaking. I know Marks models had PDX at .72-.87 but I just don’t see Salem getting that much. Does anyone know what ever became of Bruce Sussman. Hopefully he winds up at another Portland tv station sometime soon. Peace.

  9. PaulO says:

    There may be a drought but there is a ton of snow up high in the Central Cascades. My grandson and I went to see about climbing the South Sister (really just a long walk) over the weekend. From Devil’s Lake trailhead there is sold snow above 6200 feet (like a few feet + drifts) and the top of the hill before Moraine Lake was tough for him. We went ahead and spent the night on the plateau above the lake ~ 6700′ as planned but bagged the rest of the hike the next day. Had to look for a melted spot under the trees (scarce) and melt snow for water. The lake is still covered and the mountain looks like late May most years…

    • Dave in South Salem (500') says:

      The drought really intensifies as you move further south. K Falls, Medford and etc are really different than even central Oregon.

  10. Jason Hougak says:

    Go figure we are remodeling our kitchen and have ripped open the ceiling so any daytime warmth just escapes at night. I’ve had to build a fire several times as temps inside are in the low 60’s to upper 50’s. Feels like camping as our kitchen is out on the back porch. Well it’s a whole lot better than roasting every day in 90-100F weather. I’ll save that weather for the next float trip!

  11. Jason Hougak says:

    The sun had a vibrant halo ring around it yesterday, Probrobly due to the moisture in the air.
    We spent 2 nights at 3 creeks meadow last weekend in the high country, our dogs water bowl had about a 1/4″ of ice by morning. Pretty typical Cascade weather.
    We had another spring bust for thunderstorms, a couple but nothing memorable. Hopefully summer will bring some but with moisture too. We don’t need to burn the whole state!

  12. A good soaking rain wouldn’t be a bad thing. And it seems I’ve encountered frost more times than not in June at the higher elevations.

  13. Karl Bonner says:

    My thoughts:

    1. I’d think that lower 80s in Portland in late June is “rather warm,” not “very warm.” Very warm means at least 10 degrees above average, which at this time of year means above 85.

    2. Keep in mind that at least when it comes to “free air” over the lowlands, there is more seasonal lag up at 850mb than there is at the surface. The average temp over Salem for mid-June is 8-9C, which is about the same as early October. So it makes sense that lingering spring chill would be especially noticeable in the mountains and higher terrain.

    3. I’m not sure how #2 applies to south-central Oregon and northeast California, though. It’s further south and east, plus nearly all the land surface is 4,000′ or more elevation, as opposed to a mix of mountains and valleys. So the 850mb level might be too close to the surface to be of much help here. (This is probably why you see so much diurnal variation in the 850s over high desert locations!)

    4. I’m actually more interested in the dewpoints over the next 2-3 days than I am in the chance of thunderstorms. It’s going to be rather ugly if it’s still up around 80-85 degrees but the dewpoint is in the low 60s. Hopefully (or not, depending on your point of view) we’ll get somewhat cooler air in here before it gets muggy.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      72 and cloudy in Salem this afternoon. We might squeeze out a couple more degrees today but that’s about it. Probably about .15 inches of rain today and maybe about the same on Friday. Then a nice warmup starting this weekend and lasting into the 4th of July weekend. Today the minimum in Salem was 60. The first time this Summer it has been that mild. Lots of Virga in the valley now but not much actually making it to the ground until you get South of Roseburg. Medford has only had .01 the last six hours. Hardly a Pineapple express. Peace.

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