Beautiful Early June Weather; Summer Dry Spell Starts Early?

I’ve been real busy the past week with Rose Festival work and some vacation time in the weather center leading to some extra hours, so no updates here on the blog.  But I didn’t miss much.  It has rained less than a quarter inch in the past 17 days here in Portland!

MarkRain_Past12Days

I don’t see any rain through at least Tuesday either.  Of course I was wondering if we’ve had such dry weather in early June…what a poor memory I (and many of you) have!  It didn’t rain the first 11 days of last June, but then the 2nd part of June 2013 was cooler, cloudier and occasionally wet.  So this is nothing unusual.

10pm Wednesday…

It was another beautiful Rose Festival parade today with skies clearing at the start of the Junior Parade.  As mentioned in a previous post, this dry and slightly warmer than normal weather is being caused by a persistent upper level ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific.  Weak weather systems are passing over the top of the ridge, then riding down through Western Canada and occasionally dipping through Washington too.  When this happens we can get a stronger surge of marine air that gives much thicker cloud cover…that happened on Tuesday.  Today the marine air was thinner and clouds were mainly gone by noon, at least along the Coast and from Portland south.  By 5pm the clouds were gone everywhere with no new cloud cover/fog developing along the Coast.  That’s a good indication we’ll see less cloud cover tomorrow:

MarkSat_Tease_Visible

The 00z WRF-GFS cross-section backs that up showing a thinning marine layer (almost non-existent Fri-Sat) the next 3 days.  Then a bit thicker Sunday morning.  BIG PICTURE:  More nice weather ahead with abundant sunshine west of the Cascades.

Models are showing a bit of a change after Monday.  First, take a look at the ECMWF ensemble 500mb height anomaly chart for Sunday…above average heights (ridging) poking in over the Pacific Northwest.

ecm_sunday

Then notice how it backs off to the west the middle of next week.  Both the ECMWF and GEM (Canadian) show weak troughing over us

can_thursday

ecm_thursday

That means quite a bit more marine influence over us with more cloud cover and at least a chance for showers.  However I’ve noticed that even with the troughing nearby no models are producing much rainfall.  So as of now I don’t see a switch to a wet period, just a cooler 2nd week of June.

So does this mean we’re going to see an early start to the summer dry spell?  Hard to say; but if we get past next week’s troughing and riding returns for the 2nd half of the month then that’s a distinct possibility.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

22 Responses to Beautiful Early June Weather; Summer Dry Spell Starts Early?

  1. High Desert Mat says:

    Just got back from Bend and what a Smokey mess. Glad to be back in Redmond now with sunny skies and no smoke. Stay with us north winds lol

  2. schmit44 says:

    6/8/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:91 at Brookings (US 10( 150 ft) & EW3335 Jacksonvi(1390 ft) & Medford Viaduct(1360 ft) & Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)
    Low: 72 at Brookings (US 10(150 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:53 at NERRS METEOROLOG(9 ft) & Newport(30 ft)
    Low: 29 at KIRK (4519 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 50 degrees
    CW5507 Camp Sher (85/35 ) (3020 ft )
    COLGATE (83/33) (3231 ft)
    KIRK (79/29) (4519 ft)

  3. What a perfect day.

  4. schmit44 says:

    6/7/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:90 at BROOKINGS( 79 ft)
    Low: 67 at Brookings (US 10(150 ft) & Brookings Airpor(459 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:50 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 29 at KIRK (4519 ft ) & CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 47 degrees
    COLGATE (79/32 ) (3231 ft )

    • Benjamin (West Salem) says:

      I can’t believe how warm Brookings has been. I guess I have never paid close attention to their temps, but aren’t the low 90s/upper 80s as recorded the past few days unusually warm for that location?

  5. High Desert Mat says:

    Fire season seems to have kicked off early over here. Tons of smoke and about a 700 acre fire now out by Tumalo reservoir.

  6. schmit44 says:

    6/6/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:89 at Brookings (US 10( 150 ft) & CW3932 Central P(1290 ft) & Medford, Rogue V(1329 ft)
    Low: 66 at Brookings Airpor(459 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:51 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 27 at KIRK (4519 ft ) & Horse Ridge (US (4160 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 51 degrees
    CW5507 Camp Sher (83/32 ) (3020 ft )
    COLGATE (80/29) (3231 ft)

  7. Garron near Washington Square says:

    Weather plays a factor in the NBA finals last night. I love that the Spurs defeat the Heat, by turning up the heat! King James cramped up as the A/C “malfunctioned” during game 1. We’ll see how this factors in during the next game….

    https://www.google.com/search?q=Miami+Spurs+matchups&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&channel=fflb#channel=fflb&q=Spurs%20vs%20Heat&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&sh=1

    • Garron near Washington Square says:

      …Just a side note, the court side temperatures were in the low 90’s. Man, these guys need to practice condition outside for the next game!

  8. schmit44 says:

    6/5/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:93 at BROOKINGS( 79 ft)
    Low: 68 at Brookings Airpor(459 ft) & RED MOUND(1753 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:49 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 23 at DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 52 degrees
    KLAMATH NWR (81/29 ) (4531 ft )
    MAZAMA (79/27) (4596 ft)
    KIRK (77/25) (4519 ft)
    DIMLKE (75/23) (4726 ft)

  9. Karl Bonner says:

    The real question I’d love to have Mark answer is this: Can we “Stick a Fork in Spring” yet?

  10. Although the snow pack is heavy at 5,400′, I found while hiking around 3,000′ that the snow was less than last years, and I was hiking the same trail 3 weeks earlier.

    http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/05/updated-memorial-day-weekend-forecast.html

  11. vernonia1 says:

    Old Columbia river hwy closed @ Stark st Bridge….hope that won’t make Mark’s trips to & from work bad??

  12. BoringOregon says:

    More sun is good for the Garden!! Any body having a good yr in the Garden?

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Yes!
      My body is!

    • W7ENK says:

      Good year so far, though the weeds are absolutely insane. My strawberries are lost under a sea of grass, dock and amaranth, and I can’t seem to keep up. The Himalayan blackberry is incredibly unruly this year, too… quite aggressive!

  13. Garron near Washington Square says:

    I haven’t looked up the record lows for Hillsboro yet, but it’s 42 degrees, and could still drop another degree or 2 before the morning rebound. Darn chilly start if not a record!

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KHIO&table=1&banner=off

  14. schmit44 says:

    6/4/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:91 at RED MOUND(1753 ft) & JUNIPR(359 ft)
    Low: 62 at HEPP(311 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:54 at Newport(30 ft) & MEARES Cape Mear(1421 ft)
    Low: 21 at DIMLKE (4726 ft ) & KIRK (4519 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 58 degrees
    COLGATE (83/25 ) (3231 ft )

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