Unusually Dry Weather Ahead

5pm Friday…

The weather pattern the next 7-14 days looks unusually stable for early June.  Little to no rain, but no extremes of heat/cold either.  Take a look at the ECMWF model rain accumulation for the next 10 days, showing essentially dry conditions through the rest of the Rose Festival:

ecmwf_tprecip_nw_41

And the GFS for the next 14 days showing 1/2″ in western Washington but no part of the west side even gets 1″ during that period!  Oregon gets little to nothing:

gfs_total_precip_next14days

Neither shows anything significant for sure in the next week, thus our totally dry 7 Day forecast.

The reason for this is a persistent ridge of high pressure to our west in the Eastern Pacific.  It’s far enough away that we don’t get offshore flow and hot weather, but close enough to keep cold troughs from digging right overhead.  Notice the ECMWF 500mb height anomaly forecast for next Wednesday, wed500ecmwf then 4 days later on Sunday the 8th,  sun_ecmwf  then a full two weeks out at hour 360:  15days_ecm

They all look pretty much the same.  I should point out some models have the ridge backing a little farther to the west, allowing a chilly trough with showers to set up somewhere around the 10th day.  We’ll see how that pans out.  No matter the details, the weather pattern looks real nice for early June with no hot weather but no period of cool showers either…enjoy.

By the way, today is the anniversary of the Vanport Flood, the one that destroyed a large city on the north side of Portland.  I’m not going to recap the whole thing here.  But you can read a previous year’s blog posting to get all the details:

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2011/05/27/the-vanport-flood-this-weekend-in-weather-history/

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

26 Responses to Unusually Dry Weather Ahead

  1. Frances Morrissey says:

    Thank you for the pictures of Vanport. I am one of the survivors of that disaster. My dad & I saw the break as we were bicycling on that Sunday and were one of the last cars out. The authorities were not allowing any trucks into the area as ‘It might cause a panic’. I have some original pictures of Vanport and what was left when my parents were allowed to return for what few items they could salvage.

  2. Rob - S.E. Portland says:

    Did anyone take a look at last night’s 00z GFS?

    Two words:
    Bone. Dry. Not a drop of rain, zero QPF through the 20th of June. If that holds that will be quite a long dry spell for June. My next question would then be are we entering the Summer dry season earlier than usual. I guess we’ll find that out in a week or so.

  3. Jake-(Gresham) says:

    Today was such a nice day I had to for a walk after dinner because I wanted to take a nap in the backyard lol!

  4. schmit44 says:

    6/3/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:88 at ALKALI FLAT(2495 ft) & LAKE OWHEE AND O(2400 ft) & Ontario Municipa(2188 ft) & Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft) & JUNIPR(359 ft)
    Low: 65 at ECHO(683 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:45 at Timberline Lodge(6001 ft)
    Low: 23 at DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 50 degrees
    MAZAMA (75/25 ) (4596 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.09″ at BLUE CANYON(4200ft)
    0.07″ at La Grande/Union(2717ft)

  5. Lurkyloo says:

    I was surprised at how long the clouds took to clear today. Went to Freddie’s at Gateway around 8 this morning and when I came out there was a nice drizzle going on. Very refreshing! They finally have Otter Pops at the store … a sure sign that Summer is almost here! WooHoo!

  6. David B. says:

    June Gloom here on Bainbridge today. 4PM and blue is just barely starting to show in a few spots through the overcast. Currently 64 degrees. Even if we get a bit of sun, it’s not going to be a warm day.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Lame. Been sunny here all day and haven’t seen a cloud. Was 76 an hour ago and looks like its starting to cool a little now. Sometimes I wish I could have a few marine clouds here but that will never happen.

  7. schmit44 says:

    6/2/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:93 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)
    Low: 61 at JUNIPR(359 ft) & BLALOK(277 ft) & DW2435 Helix(1581 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:51 at TIDEWATER(2035 ft)
    Low: 26 at KIRK (4519 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 51 degrees
    FOSTER FLAT (83/32 ) (5000 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.78″ at EW1556 Maupin(1910ft)
    0.45″ at KLAMATH BASIN NW(4200ft)

  8. High Desert Mat says:

    I really hope this summer is big on thunderstorms, had a few big ones here last year but I’m hoping for some golf ball sized hail and it booming so loud that I have to cover my ears.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      TRW’s are nice to watch from a distance. Unfortunately they also start a lot of forest fires. If we do get them I hope they come with copious amounts of rain. Peace.

  9. High Desert Mat says:

    T-storms to my south and east. Grrrr

  10. Sapo says:

    Yeah, amazing weather today! Just a few degrees warmer and it will be perfect…

  11. David B. says:

    First time in over a month that both Saturday and Sunday were warm and dry!

  12. schmit44 says:

    6/1/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:87 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft) & CW1244 Pendleton(1145 ft)
    Low: 64 at JUNIPR(359 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:51 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 26 at KIRK (4519 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 49 degrees
    Sand Creek (US 9 (77/28 ) (4525 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.28″ at FALL MOUNTAIN(5949ft)
    0.24″ at OWYHEE RIDGE(4400ft)
    0.15″ at EW1765 Mount Hoo(1542ft)
    0.12″ at La Grande/Union(2717ft)

  13. W7ENK says:

    Okay, so last week the word was warm and wet for June, now this week it’s warm and dry? I don’t think anyone has a freakin’ clue…

  14. schmit44 says:

    5/31/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:87 at DW0462 Umatilla( 390 ft)
    Low: 64 at JUNIPR(359 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:50 at Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft) & ANEROID LAKE #2(7300 ft)
    Low: 25 at KIRK (4519 ft ) & DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 46 degrees
    MAZAMA (73/27 ) (4596 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.28″ at FALL MOUNTAIN(5949ft)
    0.26″ at YELLOWPINE(4600ft)
    0.24″ at OWYHEE RIDGE(4400ft)

  15. JERAT416 says:

    I sure hope we don’t pay for this with a wet/cool period in July or August. I would be happy with ZERO precip from July-September other than the stray albino donkeys…….

  16. Garron near Washington Square says:

    Interesting, maybe we’ll have two straight months above normal temperature wise, w/o any real heatwaves. Thanks for all the great info Mark!

  17. WEATHERDAN says:

    18 days at or over 70 in Salem this May. Not sure of the record but this year has to be close to it. Probably less than ten days through September with highs less than 70 degrees. My favorite time of year by far. I really liked last Winter with it’s cold spells. But I couldn’t take four straight months of it. This kind of weather I can. When the weather finally turns Fall like in October then we can look forward to the OMSI weather conference. Maybe Mark’s presentation will be the cat’s meow again. Peace.

  18. High Desert Mat says:

    Hmmmm…….now the freezing level is 11,000 ft and the summit temp is 44? I just don’t understand it I guess. Mark?

  19. schmit44 says:

    5/30/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:87 at ECHO( 683 ft) & Pendleton /McKay(1100 ft)
    Low: 55 at JUNIPR(359 ft) & EW4395 Milton Fr(3455 ft) & Port Orford (US(90 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:51 at Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft) & HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 22 at Horse Ridge (US (4160 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 53 degrees
    CW5507 Camp Sher (81/28 ) (3020 ft )
    Horse Ridge (US (75/22) (4160 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.18″ at DW9630 La Pine(4256ft)
    0.12″ at EW3697 Prinevill(3625ft)

  20. LongtimeLurker says:

    This is perfect weather for me for this time of year. Not too hot, not too cold. Mark, can we have this weather all summer, please?

  21. Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

    Awesome anvil clouds this evening from those tstorms up by rainier. Ones column changed direction a couple times with a long anvil and an overshooting top. Love that

  22. oldwxwatcher says:

    Today was just perfect. Clear, not too warm or humid and a nice afternoon breeze. This after a low of 42.5° this morning. And I’m not in one of Mark’s “colder outlying areas,” but in east Portland. I’m sure that other parts of the city had similar lows this morning.

  23. vernonia1 says:

    gorgeous is all I can say.

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