Unusually Dry Weather Ahead

May 30, 2014

5pm Friday…

The weather pattern the next 7-14 days looks unusually stable for early June.  Little to no rain, but no extremes of heat/cold either.  Take a look at the ECMWF model rain accumulation for the next 10 days, showing essentially dry conditions through the rest of the Rose Festival:

ecmwf_tprecip_nw_41

And the GFS for the next 14 days showing 1/2″ in western Washington but no part of the west side even gets 1″ during that period!  Oregon gets little to nothing:

gfs_total_precip_next14days

Neither shows anything significant for sure in the next week, thus our totally dry 7 Day forecast.

The reason for this is a persistent ridge of high pressure to our west in the Eastern Pacific.  It’s far enough away that we don’t get offshore flow and hot weather, but close enough to keep cold troughs from digging right overhead.  Notice the ECMWF 500mb height anomaly forecast for next Wednesday, wed500ecmwf then 4 days later on Sunday the 8th,  sun_ecmwf  then a full two weeks out at hour 360:  15days_ecm

They all look pretty much the same.  I should point out some models have the ridge backing a little farther to the west, allowing a chilly trough with showers to set up somewhere around the 10th day.  We’ll see how that pans out.  No matter the details, the weather pattern looks real nice for early June with no hot weather but no period of cool showers either…enjoy.

By the way, today is the anniversary of the Vanport Flood, the one that destroyed a large city on the north side of Portland.  I’m not going to recap the whole thing here.  But you can read a previous year’s blog posting to get all the details:

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2011/05/27/the-vanport-flood-this-weekend-in-weather-history/

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen