Showers Next Two Days; Thunder Possible Too

May 26, 2014

11pm Monday…

In general the weather pattern remains quite slow and not real exciting the next week or so.  But tomorrow and Wednesday a cool upper-level trough will edge closer and then right over us, destabilizing the atmosphere.  That leads to afternoon showers both days, especially Wednesday.

This weekend ended up a bit drier than I expected.  We sure expected the mainly/all dry Saturday and Sunday, but then the system yesterday evening and overnight was weaker than anticipated.  As a result; weekend rain totals were pathetic.

PLOT_Rain_MANUAL_Metro

So I’d say this Memorial Weekend was the nicest in 5 years…since 2009.

Back by popular demand…actually there is no demand for it…is the graphic showing our average high temp in late May is similar to late September or early October.  So even though meteorological summer is right around the corner (June), it’s hard to call late May the start of summer here.  This year though it sure wasn’t bad was it?

MarkMemorialDay_StartofSummer

This week the only showers should be tomorrow afternoon, Wednesday, and maybe a leftover shower on Thursday morning.  That’s it for the lowlands.  Either tomorrow or Wednesday could see thunderstorms.  Tomorrow looks interesting as showers build over the Coast Range and then drift out over the valleys.  Both our RPM model and the WRF-GFS from the UW show this…here is the 4km precipitation from the WRF at 2pm:

or_pcp3.21.0000

and 5pm when the showers are moving out over the valleys.

or_pcp3.24.0000

Lifted Index values and CAPE also suggest thunder is possible, although probably the “rumble here and there” variety, not the exciting stuff.

So the message is to get your dry weather activities done before early afternoon tomorrow!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen