A Warm Week

11:00pm Monday…

This is another nice week with temperatures more like July than mid-May.  Interesting that we had a warm-hot week, then a cool/wet week last week, and now back to another warm spell.  I don’t see any extreme heat with temps above 90 degrees for several days, but we’ll be quite close to 90 for one day…Wednesday.

We hit 78 in Portland today; quite a change from the low-mid 40s this morning!


we’ll see another 10-12 degrees warming over the next two days.  Then cooling Thursday-Saturday.   The warming is once again brought to us courtesy a strong upper-level ridge developing along the West Coast.  Take a look at the Wednesday afternoon GFS forecast:


585dm heights are real impressive in mid May.  In fact, I figure anytime 500mb. heights are 570 or above the weather is pretty decent in May and June.

Today we saw the east wind make it all the way to the beaches and it surfaced in the Portland metro area too.  The temperature sure took a jump from 11am-noon (the chart above) as the east wind kicked in…66 to 73 in that one hour.    That may happen again tomorrow and possibly Wednesday as slightly weaker easterly flow continues.    That combined with forecast 850mb temps of +18 over Salem on both the GFS and ECMWF should push us to right around 90 degrees.  2 weeks ago we hit 89 with an 850mb temp of +19 under similar offshore flow conditions.  So that’s why I went for 90 since it’s two weeks farther into the season (2 weeks closer to summer).

After that we get weak onshore flow Thursday afternoon, then an upper-level low just in time for…THE WEEKEND.  I heard some complaints about that here at work, but I reminded folks that we had some really nice weekends in January, and I think again in March.  Or was it April?  One of the latter two occurred, so quite your whining.  At least that’s what I told my co-workers.

Longer term, there is some hint that we warm up again in the days leading up to the Memorial Day Weekend.  Here’s the 12z ECMWF ensemble chart:


and the brand new 00z GFS ensemble chart:


IF we get to 90 on Wednesday, this is how that will line up with other “First 90 Degree Days” in the past 6 years.


Remember those two cool summers in 2011 and 2012?  Those really were strange years.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

16 Responses to A Warm Week

  1. Renee Clark says:

    Just checked all 3 thermometers, all in the shade. 1 in the back corner of the carport and never gets the sun, 1 outside the back deck under the eves and sun doesn’t hit it after about Feb. and the last is in the carport, on the post closest the house so no sun til late afternoon, yet all 3 read 100 degrees and NO ocean breeze today. Got to enjoy it now, Seaside may not see anything this warm, until next year. Man, is it HOT ! Renee in Seaside

  2. MasterNate says:

    My son had a midgets baseball game this evening and the weather couldn’t have been more perfect. Nice to see summer start a little early. We deserve it!

  3. Garron near Washington Square says:

    Awesome day! You can really see how the wind direction at the beaches control the temps up and down. Seaside had several spikes in temps during the day due to the wind direction.http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=C0356&table=1&banner=off

    As did Tillamook: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KTMK&table=1&banner=off

  4. Paul D says:

    2011 & 2012….how fondly I remember thee…

    • Sifton says:

      Worst, summers, ever………….

    • Karl Bonner says:

      Actually it was the “worst spring ever” in 2011. And it was a strong contender for “latest-peaking summer ever” as well. (By “late peaking” I am thinking mainly of the date on which we had our median growing degree-day.)

    • Sifton says:

      Agreed, I recall Sept.2011 as a beautiful 1 month summer! Hope that doesn’t happen again in my lifetime!!

  5. High Desert Mat says:

    Pretty lame that the weather is going to be beautiful all week and as soon as I get there (Saturday) for the opening day of races in Woodburn it looks to be rained out. Still going to make it over the mountains but just wont be as enjoyable. Mark, anyway that you can extend your warm bias through at least Sunday?

  6. Larry says:

    Thanks for letting your warm bias bless us early this year, Mark! 😛

  7. schmit44 says:

    5/12/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:84 at ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft)
    Low: 55 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)

    High:40 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 15 at Horse Ridge (US (4160 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 51 degrees
    Horse Ridge (US (66/15 ) (4160 ft )

  8. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    65 degrees after midnight with a nice east wind blowing. Summer is here.

    It was 58 around 1130

  9. W7ENK says:

    Your warm bias is showing again, Mark.

    I really like it!! 🙂

  10. Karl Bonner says:

    “So that’s why I went for 90 since it’s two weeks farther into the season (2 weeks closer to summer)”.

    Of course, two weeks makes a bigger difference in sun angle when you’re closer to the equinoxes and the sun angle is changing most rapidly. Once you get past May Day the insolation begins to “plateau” as we enter the season of maximum insolation.

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