A Soaker Today, but Summer Preview 2.0 Ahead

10:45pm Thursday…

What a gray and wet day, with the biggest downpours this evening.  For some reason it decided to really pour while I was making a “donut run” for the kids; what a good father, willing to risk TV makeup and wet hair just for the kiddos.  At least I think so.

Here are the rain totals as of 10pm…

PLOT_Rain_Metro_Autoplot

Colder air moving in aloft tomorrow along with sunbreaks points to hail and possible thundershowers tomorrow.  Take a look at the WRF-GFS depiction of CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) for tomorrow afternoon.

mcape.33.0000

When you see numbers above 300 or so west of the Cascades that’s always good.  Up around 800 or more is “big time” thunderstorms for us.  “Big Time” in this case means more than one flash every 5 minutes of course…

So tomorrow (Friday) should be an active weather day as a cold pool of air in the upper atmosphere passes overhead.  It’ll be shifting to our south quickly on Saturday, thus a much better day with just partly cloudy skies and a few sprinkles or a shower.

Beginning Sunday, an upper-level ridge builds over the West Coast for the 2nd time this month.  That means another period of much warmer than normal temps and abundant sunshine.  Basically another preview of summer for a few days.

How warm is it going to get?  The 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF were in excellent agreement; here are their ensemble charts:

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

Both show 850mb temps around +10 over us by Monday afternoon, and +15 to +18 for Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.  Low level flow turns offshore Tuesday and Wednesday, with flatter flow (depending on the model) Thursday.  Pretty good agreement on these models and most of their ensembles, so I went for some mid-upper 80s in the 7 Day forecast.

The 00z GFS has come in significantly cooler, although still very nice, the middle of next week.  Even the ensembles are a little cooler so if the ECMWF follows suit we’ll need to lower our 7 day forecast temps by 5 degrees or so.  Here is the fresh 00z chart:

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland (1)

We’re definitely headed for a dry period, check out the 12z ECMWF meteogram showing no rain after Saturday afternoon for the following 8+ days:

KPDX_2014050812_dx_240

So enjoy the rain because we’re headed back into a dry pattern for a while.

By the way, last night I showed this hail graphic on the 10pm newscast:

MarkHail_FactsOregon

I was curious how large hail has been in our viewing area in the past.  I do clearly remember the July 9, 1995 supercell thunderstorm event in north-central Oregon.  Once in a great while we have seen quarter size hail west of the Cascades, but the main action happens east of the Cascades. Almost every summer we hear of golf ball size hail at least once somewhere over there.  But it’s been 16 years (1998) since larger sizes have been documented as you see in the graphic.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

32 Responses to A Soaker Today, but Summer Preview 2.0 Ahead

  1. Ted Berry says:

    We here in the Barton area have been in the bulls eye of today’s electrical storms, one every hour or so with many close lightning strikes within a 1000 feet or so. Storm number 4 just passed through! Standing water everywhere with 1.24″ of precipitation since midnight. WOW!

    • Ted Berry says:

      Update, storm #5 has just moved through, with another .36 inches of precipitation. This is like wintertime localized flooding here, unbelievable!!!!

    • Ted Berry says:

      Thanks ‘Pappy’, I could quote Yogi but I won’t right now because I wanted to comment on the 2014 Climate Change Report released this week. I think it’s obvious to anyone who has been around long enough to experience and observe the weather that a profound change is occurring regarding the intensity and duration of rainfall. To me this is a scary change of events when this happens in ones own lifespan.

  2. Sandi (Wilsonville) says:

    Fast moving squall just moved through Wilsonville and now the sun’s back out. Wind, pouring rain, hail. Blew the W facing back door open and all the windows (and screens) on the west side of the house are drenched. So much for clean windows. ;P

  3. pappoose in scappoose says:

    LOOK!

  4. Richard says:

    Is Salem going to miss all the fun?

  5. Karl Bonner says:

    Hey Mark – did you know that Western Oregon is currently experiencing FLOOD conditions? At least according to the “senior meteorologist” of this:

    http://www.theweatherspace.com/2014/05/08/strong-pacific-storm-to-hit-oregon-and-washington-with-flooding-in-spots-gusty-winds-and-thunderstorms/

  6. runrain says:

    Sunbreaks! NWS says that could make for a VERY interesting day!

  7. marinersfan85 says:

    Certainly nice of you to make a whole new post for Jesse to realize that there is more than plenty of model agreement.

  8. vernonia1 says:

    I remember accounts of the Hermiston 1995. Folks lost all the watermelons. News showed them just Exploding! as they were hit.

  9. pappoose in scappoose says:

    I think the better day is today, Mark!

    We need to keep a close eye on radar today! Hahaah!

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    852 AM PDT FRI MAY 9 2014

    SHORT TERM…THE UPPER LOW SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OFF THE WA AND SOUTHERN BC COAST THIS MORNING HAD TWO MAIN CORES…ONE NEAR 47N 131W AND ANOTHER FURTHER NW N OF 50 N. THE INITIAL LOW CORE LOOKED
    ACTIVE WITH SOME DEEP CONVECTIVE CELLS. AS THE LOW APPROACHES LATE TODAY AIR MASS IS LIKELY TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING PEAKING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MODEL
    SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON SUGGEST ONE OF THE RARE DAYS IN THE PACIFIC NW FOR RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION…PARCELS SUGGEST TOPS AROUND 25K FT. WITH EXPECTED INLAND HIGH TEMPS AROUND 60 CAPE VALUES COULD POTENITALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 1K J/KG. DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A 130KT JET CORE ALSO MOVES ACROSS TODAY PROVIDING AN ADDED LIFTING MECHANISM. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALREADY
    OCCURRING…WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE SPOILER AS IT MAY INHIBIT OPTIMAL HEATING THROUGH MIXING. OVERALL THOUGH…CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS…AND WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER AS SCATTERED TO INFER SOME CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE. SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
    ROTATING STORMS…SO WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON RADAR TODAY.

    • Mike (Orchards 255') says:

      Me especially likes the part……. “SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS…SO WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON RADAR TODAY”.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Certainly a good line, Mike. Think my favorite is, “ONE OF THE RARE DAYS IN THE PACIFIC NW FOR RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION”

  10. Paul D says:

    80’s again? Ugh! It’s May! Stop it! I feel ripped off! I want spring weather!

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      That would counter the 50s for today. Have to get an average somehow!

    • Ted Berry says:

      Paul, it’s only going to get worse, 9 degrees warmer on average in just 80 more years. I think shade trees and a new heat pump are in order!

  11. Longview 400 ft says:

    Today is goingt ot be very interesting with some pop ups already in place so early.

    I hear funnel clouds are a possibility as well.

    Everyone should be watching the radar today!!!! LOL

    All this excitement today to be followed by great weather from this Sunday on.

  12. W7ENK says:

    Yeah Mark, your warm bias is now influencing the models, which is in turn back-feeding your warm bias, and by July or August both you and the models will be spitting out high temperature forecasts for over 135 degrees, which will probably melt a few Skamania County residents into whiney little puddles of cry… again. 🙄

    Personally, I’m looking forward to some more warm sunshine!

    Thanks for the update, Mark.

  13. pdxgeologist says:

    Donut run for the “kiddos”, eh? My first week in Portland in over 4 months next week – looks like I’ve timed it well.

  14. The Bad Forecaster says:

    Hi Mark

    I wound up with 0.54 here in Tacoma and only reached a high temp of 56 at 10:40 AM. That gives me 1.76 for the month already and 25.67 for the year. My average for a whole year is 42.98 inches in this location over the last 5 years.

  15. Jack in Corbett says:

    Here in Corbett we’ve had over 1.5 inches of rain since mid morning!

    Bring on the dry weather.

  16. Karl Bonner says:

    Anybody seen the 00z ECMWF? I haven’t. How hot?

  17. schmit44 says:

    Warm Bias! 🙂

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