U.S. Weather Modeling Falls to 4th Place Globally


The USA needs to get its act together!  This last month the “premiere” GFS model has fallen to 4th place in global forecasting.  It used to be #1.  Cliff Mass (University of Washington) has an excellent post on why this is happening and why fear of getting supercomputers from the Chinese could be putting a halt to a fix.


27 Responses to U.S. Weather Modeling Falls to 4th Place Globally

  1. Garron near Washington Square says:

    Technology is only as good as the meteorologist using it. Give Mark an apple core, some string, and knitting needle, plus his experience living here. and I’d be more confident in his interpretation from his crude machine than the other forecasters & forecasting tools we have at our disposal. You can have your mega warehouse of super computers, decoded by some room full of weather geeks in an office a thousand miles away.
    It is fun watching the models, like horses running around the race track, and betting on the winner. But, in the end, it’s more conjecture than science at this early stage. It will take quantum leap in computer science before we get to a level that replaces a true, hardened veteran meteorologist like Mark. Sorry Mark ,you can’t retire for ATLEAST another 25 years. Like a boat w/o a captain and no paddle, we’d be up a creek w/o a decent meteorologist!

  2. schmit44 says:

    5/4/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:75 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)
    Low: 57 at LAKE OWHEE AND O(2400 ft)

    High:32 at Rim(7050 ft)
    Low: 27 at Timberline Lodge (7001 ft ) & Mount Hood Meado (6601 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 29 degrees
    YELLOWPINE (63/34 ) (4600 ft )
    EW2055 Prairie C (62/33) (3547 ft)
    Lorella (61/32) (4160 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.62″ at YELLOWSTONE MTN.(3080ft)
    1.56″ at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183ft)
    1.50″ at Detroit Lake(1675ft)
    1.45″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)

  3. W7ENK says:

    Oh… my… GOD!!!

  4. Benjamin (West Salem) says:

    I love cold core convection days. Sure they aren’t even close to as exciting as our big summer time T storms, but days like this sure beat out drizzle or steady rain days.

    Let’s see what Monday brings???

  5. runrain says:

    Big sunbreaks now, which NWS could generate some rotation in thunderstorms later today. Looks like it could be an interesting afternoon!

  6. vernonia1 says:

    ODOT: Valley, No. Coast: US 20 (Corvallis-Newport Hwy.) is closed to all travel approximately six miles west of Eddyville (MP 17.5), after a crash. The closure is expected to be lengthy while law enforcement conducts an investigation. Motorists and bicyclists traveling between the coast and the valley should take an alternate route or expect delays

  7. Charlie Feris says:

    There are ways the NWS can get around the bad contract with IBM. But they won’t do it. Another example of incompetence at high levels of the NWS.

  8. David B. says:

    Absolutely poured rain last night. Not surprisingly, the daily rainfall record at SeaTac fell. Still getting heavy showers today. Quack, quack, quack!

  9. schmit44 says:

    5/3/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:82 at LAKE OWHEE AND O(2400 ft) & Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)
    Low: 61 at JUNIPR(359 ft)

    High:36 at Timberline Lodge(6001 ft)
    Low: 27 at Mount Hood Meado (6601 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 39 degrees
    Lorella (70/31 ) (4160 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.18″ at TIDEWATER(2035ft)
    1.15″ at SOUTH FORK(2257ft)
    1.14″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)
    1.11″ at Astoria Regional(10ft)

  10. Jason Hougak says:

    Ahh back to burning firewood and listening to the rain on the metal roof. Should be snowing by now at Timberline. Wish summer was that quick.

  11. WEATHERDAN says:

    Trying to forecast the weather more than seven days out using any computer is usually not all that accurate anyway. Just this past Winter the models kept flip flopping back and forth between cold and dry or cold and wet or warm and wet, what a joke. This was GFS and ECMWF and GEM. Anything more than a week out is just an educated guess. Oh by the way that weathergirl on channel 6 has at least twice that I have seen referred to Eastern Oregon as Eastern New Mexico. It’s no wonder she can’t get her forecasts right, she doesn’t seem to know what state she is in. Bring back Bruce Sussman, please. Peace.

  12. schmit44 says:

    5/2/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:91 at JUNIPR( 359 ft)
    Low: 61 at Arlington Airpor(890 ft) & CW0706 Weston(1916 ft)

    High:53 at MEARES Cape Mear(1421 ft) & HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160 ft) & Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
    Low: 25 at DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 50 degrees
    HEREFORD (81/31 ) (3599 ft )
    RED BUTTE (80/30) (4460 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.11″ at MEARES Cape Mear(1421ft)

  13. matthew says:

    Time to invest in America and get us back on the right track! Science, infrastructure and education should be focused on.

  14. Garron near Washington Square says:

    Since we’re going for last place, who wants to jump on the “SUMMERS’ OVER” tour bus? It’s like buying a lottery ticket, only, the odds of being right and winning are better…lol I’m sure we are losing on purpose. That way we won’t have to give up the secret of how NORAD tracks Santa!

  15. snodaze says:

    Holy integrated circuits batman,… Why so political Mark?… You know this will end well for me when I state my opinion on the issue? I’ll be banned.

    Fear the Chinese supercomputer? Heck, just show up in Hillsboro, Austin TX. or Dresden Germany with a suitcase full of I.O.U’s. (isn’t that how we do it?) lol.

  16. Brian says:

    What a joke, yet they just blew what 200? 300 million on the stupid cover Oregon website for nothing. How many Cray super computers would that have purchased? Quite a few according to: http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/07/technology/enterprise/cray-supercomputer/

  17. MasterNate says:

    Really no surprise, politics as usual.

  18. Another example how the U.S. is losing credibility in the world and our greed based drive to outsource. It’s no longer about people in China making cheap little toys and clothing. 😦

    • Ted Berry says:

      What fuels “greed based drive to outsource” ? Rampant consumerism in a throw-away society!

      Better add something about the weather here; beautiful morning with the birds singing as a shower cloud passes by, I think they like this cooler weather too!

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