6-7 Wet Days Ahead

11pm Monday…

The forecast for the next week is pretty clear; wet with cooler than average temperatures for late April.  This has been well-advertised on models and in forecasts, so I got my lawn mowed, burned some debris, and planted a few things that could use a week-long soaking.  Hope you all got anything taken care of that needs to be done outside too!

A chilly upper-level trough is about to move inland this evening.  It’s quite a pocket of chilly air; snow levels should dip down to around 3,000′ by sunrise.  Not a whole lot of moisture left at that time for big Cascade snowfall, but for the first time this month we should solidly white pass highways right at daybreak.

Then we’re into the showers/sunbreaks routine tomorrow as the strong April sunshine heats the ground, contributing to weak instability in the atmosphere.  With such a chilly air mass it’s possible you could see brief hail or thunder at your house if you live inland between the Coast Range and Cascades.

Wednesday and Thursday look WET!  Take a look at our RPM rain accumulation graphic:


Several surges of rain move through along with gusty southerly wind; looks more like early March than late April.  But we’ve been a bit above average so far this month temperature-wise so now it’s time to be a bit cooler (thus an “average”).

What about Cascade snow?  Quite a bit up around 5,000′, not too much below:


The milder than average temps the first part of April have accelerated the normal spring melt below about 5,000′ in the Cascades.  Note the snow water equivalent at 4,800′ Santiam Pass (Hogg Pass SNOTEL):


The solid blue line is this snow season’s SWE, the light blue is average.  You can see the plummeting values the first half of this month.

Up at the lower elevations of Timberline Ski Area at 5400′ the story is a bit better:


With all the snow coming the next week at that elevation we’ll probably see the highest values of the season coming up, a “second peak”.  Interesting that at that site the average does linger at the maximum for a little over a month, then there is a quick fall-off as temperatures warm rapidly in late May.

Enjoy the rain…

There is some hope on the horizon.  Models give us at least some brief ridging about a week from now (NEXT Tuesday/Wednesday).  Take a look at the 850mb chart from the 00z GFS showing temperatures at the 5,000′ elevation returning to normal or a bit above after next Monday.


You can see how the very warm 00z GFS operational run is quite an outlier.  I doubt we’ll be seeing a +17 deg C. temperature on the last day of April.  That would be a high temperature well into the 80s.  But it appears it will be warmer and drier right after our 7 Day forecast ends.  The 12z ECMWF was very warm as well and warmer than most of its ensemble members.  Here is the operational run showing high temps up around 80 at the same time:



Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen


21 Responses to 6-7 Wet Days Ahead

  1. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Rain all day but only.34″ so far today. Also very cold with a high of just 53

  2. PhilinForestGrove says:

    T.Storms tonight around bedtime? Bring it!

  3. Dan Newhouse says:

    Mark, please educate the reporters, just because it is snow doesn’t make it Powder! That ignorence (like calling loaded ammunition “bullets” ) is a bit irritating. Thanks, you are the best, Dan Portland OR.

  4. W7ENK says:

    A good, solid 1/2 to 3/4 inches of pink snow in my yard when I got home from work today, and it’s still falling lightly.

    54 degrees, after a high of 56.

  5. Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

    Been a gullywasher up here. .42″ in the last 6 hrs.

  6. schmit44 says:

    4/22/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:63 at HEPP( 311 ft) & UMATILLA RIVER B(587 ft)
    Low: 53 at UMATILLA RIVER B(587 ft)

    High:30 at Timberline Lodge(6001 ft) & Timberline Lodge(7001 ft) & Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft)
    Low: 18 at HOWARD Mt Howard (8150 ft ) & Mount Hood Meado (6601 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 25 degrees
    DW6879 Union (59/34 ) (2792 ft )
    NORTH FORK MALHE (57/32) (3270 ft)
    CW0704 Long Cree (55/30) (3773 ft)
    PRARIE CITY (55/30) (3753 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.45″ at DW6659 Colton(825ft)
    1.30″ at Willamette Pass(5080ft)
    1.30″ at NORTH FORK(3120ft)
    1.22″ at Detroit Lake(1675ft)
    1.22″ at DW5586 Beavercre(1407ft)

  7. Jason Hougak says:

    Welcome back cold winter weather, 10″ today at Timberline and much more to come.

  8. Sifton says:

    78 next Tue?? Ok Sophie, sweetheart, quit playin with the big machine thingy!

  9. Ted Berry says:

    active cell moving through the Barton Area, lighting and thunder!

  10. Lurkyloo says:

    Poose! I heard thunder! One of your strays got out …

  11. Hal in Aims says:

    rumble of thunder somewhere in the distance…….

  12. WEATHERDAN says:

    So far today is dry. Salem airport reports a shower at 1:00 PM but I have seen just Partly Cloudy skies so far today. Still only 53 degrees though. Saw the new weathergirl on KOIN last night. Not at all impressed. Mark you rock. You are the best in town. Peace

  13. 44 degrees here at 1 PM. Peak wind so far of 28 mph.

    Glad I have waited on the garden as there is heavy rain/hail at times.

  14. W7ENK says:

    Thanks for the update, Mark. 🙂

    Had the lawn mowed Friday, and just noticed this morning that all the new seed I laid down (the second batch, my neighbor’s chickens got out and ate up the first batch a few weeks ago) is almost mow-able now… well, maybe not quite yet.

    Everything is in the ground for my garden, so it’s hurry up and wait right now. Glad I won’t need to water this week, though I hope I don’t repeat last year where half my little veggie sprouts flooded and washed out from all the rain. That was… annoying.

    My cherry trees are all in full bloom right now, one is about a week past prime. That’s 2-3 weeks ahead of the last 2 years, and it looks like I may have a ton of cherries again this year!

    Happy Spring, folks!

    • MasterNate says:

      The Starlings are very happy for your tons of cherries also.

    • gidrons says:

      You should have eaten those chickens when you had the chance.

    • W7ENK says:

      HAH!! I still may… they’re in my custody this week as my neighbor is back East, he ran in the Boston Marathon and is visiting friends until Sunday. One of them got out yesterday and wasn’t in the hutch last night, I came up one short at “closing the door time” before I went to bed. She came strutting up behind me this morning when I went to open the door back up before work, soaking wet and upset as all hell as if her being out all night was somehow MY fault! lol She’s probably the one that poked the hole in the green egg when I went to collect them after work.

  15. schmit44 says:

    4/21/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:74 at BUCKHORN SPRINGS(2780 ft) & LAKE OWHEE AND O(2400 ft) & ONTARIO(2260 ft) & Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)
    Low: 50 at W7OBH Canby(164 ft) & DW6132 Portland(272 ft) & DW2631 Mount Ver(4015 ft) & UNIOWS(2827 ft) & CW1753 Portland(787 ft)

    High:40 at Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft)
    Low: 25 at RED BUTTE (4460 ft ) & Lakeview, Lake C (4734 ft ) & CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 40 degrees
    DANNER (70/30 ) (4225 ft )
    NYSSA (70/30) (2172 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.96″ at North Bend Munic(16ft)
    0.85″ at BANDON(79ft)
    0.84″ at USCRN SITE NEAR(39ft)

  16. Sifton says:

    Hope this week is the last hurrah already………..

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