Easter Weekend: Wet, then Warm/Dry

11pm Friday…

Here’s our latest forecast for Easter Weekend:

Easter2012_2Day

quite a change from Saturday to Sunday.   I think Sunday afternoon will be one of those real nice spring afternoons…good enough for a BBQ!

Southerly flow pushes lots of high/mid clouds over us Monday with a shower possible just about anytime.

By Monday night, a chilly upper-level trough is approaching, increasing shower activity.  This leads us into a pretty long spell of cool and showery weather.  A 2nd cold trough settles in late next week and into the last weekend of the month.

Take a look at the 12z ECMWF and 00z GFS ensemble charts, you can see the below average temps through the next 7+ days beyond Tuesday.  Also notice very good agreement through that period too.

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland (1) tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

Better get your lawn mowed either Sunday or Monday!

 Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

27 Responses to Easter Weekend: Wet, then Warm/Dry

  1. High Desert Mat says:

    Weird. Downpours off and on here in Redmond for last 6 hours or so. Rarity for this area since I’ve lived here.

  2. Taylor says:

    Looks like you were right Mark! Kristen VanDycke is the new Chief Meteorologist of KOIN 6 News. And they finally debuted their new look.

  3. Boydo3 N. Albany says:

    Euro has us drying out and warming up big time……in week

  4. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Camp Muir Web cam is now sending us pics!

    See the view from the clouds! Camp Muir perches on the side of Mount Rainier at an elevation of over 10,000 feet (3,000 meters).

  5. pappoose in scappoose says:

    I certainly agree. We need to watch for Stray Albino Donkeys…relentlessly…

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    215 AM PDT MON APR 21 2014

    POPS REMAIN HIGH TUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH WITH COOLEST AIR ALOFT MOVES ACROSS. GFS SUGGESTS IN INSTABILITY DEEP ENOUGH TO CARRY A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS…BUT NAM AND ECWMF DEPICT SHALLOWER INSTABILITY THAT WOULD LIKELY NOT SUPPORT THUNDER.

    IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND LATER THU AND FRI AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW. WE MAY ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME AS THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
    UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION.

  6. schmit44 says:

    4/20/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:79 at MERLIN SEED ORCH(1144 ft)
    Low: 49 at LOCKS(128 ft) & EW2839 Damascus(515 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:42 at RED BOX(3250 ft) & CW7477 Lostine(7002 ft) & MT. HOWARD(7910 ft) & ALAKES Haines(7979 ft)
    Low: 14 at Horse Ridge (US (4160 ft ) & DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 51 degrees
    FOSTER FLAT (66/15 ) (5000 ft )
    Horse Ridge (US (65/14) (4160 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.37″ at Astoria Regional(10ft)

  7. High Desert Mat says:

    Happy belated Easter all!!

  8. WEATHERDAN says:

    64 in Salem with a lot of Sunshine today. Some on and off showers this week but I don’t see a lot of steady rain. Trees look to be a couple of weeks ahead of where they usually are for this time of year. Sunset is now after 8:00 PM and will be until late August. I was really happy to have had the kind of Winter we had with all the snow and the two Arctic blasts. But I am very glad Spring is here. Sorry to see the lack of interest in the blog. There is actually usually more active weather this time of year than in the Winter. Anyway Happy Easter. Peace.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      I’ve never seen more action on the blog this time of year compared to winter months. Not unless its one day event where there might be an isolated t-storm. Even then I don’t know.

      Anyways here to a long and warm summer.

    • Jeff says:

      My sense is that, in Portland, trees and shrubs are a couple of weeks behind where they usually are for this time of year. Our camellia didn’t start blooming until late March and still has blooms on it–normally it’s finished by the first week in April. Crabapple is at peak bloom; normally that happens last week in March or first week in April. Wondering what others are observing?

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      My apple/pear trees (@ 1,000′ west end of Gorge) are starting to bloom at just about the average time. It’s usually between mid April and the first week of May; depending on the weather in March/April of course. All the alder trees in the woods around me are just starting to turn green, which seems about average in this location too.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      I can’t speak to other locations of course but down here in Salem we do seem to be ahead of where we would normally be for the trees leafing out. Most years the White Oaks first start to see new leaves from late April to mid May. This year they started to leaf out the second week of April. Other trees seem to be a bit ahead as well. Peace.

  9. Sifton says:

    LOL!! 70 & warmer on the 7day for today. Ok, who blew it, Brian?!?

  10. pappoose in scappoose says:

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    848 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

    MORNING UPDATE…QUIET CONDITIONS ON AN SPEGG-TACULAR SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

  11. schmit44 says:

    4/19/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:81 at LAKE OWHEE AND O(2400 ft)
    Low: 49 at PACCTY-2 Pacific(28 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:34 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft) & Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft)
    Low: 14 at MT. HOWARD (7910 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 52 degrees
    HEREFORD (72/20 ) (3599 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.90″ at SADDLE MOUNTAIN(3250ft)
    0.66″ at SOUTH FORK(2257ft)

  12. High Desert Mat says:

    I hear crickets on the blog.

    • David B. says:

      No more chance of winter storms = less weather interest. Happens every spring.

    • JERAT416 says:

      Maybe we will have a chance of thunderstorms soon! That will definitely be worth discussing. Otherwise, we need to wait for summer and hope the death ridge will come close enough to talk
      about.

  13. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Put on your bonnet & hop around in the mud if you’re hunting Easter eggs outside today! The front looks pretty healthy.

    http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/alternative.php?wfo=pqr&area=west&type=vis&size=1

  14. schmit44 says:

    4/18/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:74 at ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft)
    Low: 48 at CW5925 Coos Bay(49 ft) & SQUAW PEAK(4964 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:34 at Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft) & MT. HOWARD(7910 ft)
    Low: 11 at MT. HOWARD (7910 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 42 degrees
    Klamath Falls In (64/22 ) (4091 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.81″ at Astoria Regional(10ft)
    0.53″ at McMinnville Muni(157ft)
    0.49″ at CW2664 Corbett(659ft)
    0.43″ at Eugene, Mahlon S(364ft)
    0.42″ at Scappoose Indust(52ft)

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