Spring Break Wrap; Warmer Weather Ahead…Eventually

Another wet morning out there and it looks like a gray day to start April, but there is hope on the horizon!

It’s only 8am, but apparently I’m still on east coast time because I couldn’t sleep.

My family vacation the past 7 days was crazy, and not in a good way.

​We showed up on Tuesday evening in Orlando to do 3 days of theme parks and 3 days of beach in Florida.  My daughter Ariel went to bed with a slight headache, then woke up with severe head/neck pain at 3am.  We took her to local ER at 10am.  By 2pm they sent her to children’s hospital in an ambulance after finding signs of infection during a spinal tap.   It was a bacterial meningitis, the scary stuff we sometimes hear about where kids are healthy one day and dead or dying 48 hours later.  Real scary for about 12 hours.

Nice first day in sunny Florida eh?  She then was in the hospital through midday yesterday, we left, went to the airport and headed home.  She’s perfectly “normal” now due to quick action on our part, prayers from family and friends, and the wonders of modern medicine.  If we would have been in a remote area (Mexico, outer Caribbean etc…)  I think she could have died.  I can’t say enough good things about my wife, who happens to be an RN and recognized the symptoms of a serious infection.  The poor girl deserves a return trip…she saw some brief sun the evening we showed up, and between the car and airport on the way out of there yesterday.  Otherwise she was in a hospital the whole time.

By the way, why does no one use turn signals in Florida?…extremely annoying.  I also saw some really bad driving there, and it wasn’t tourists!
I wanted to share the big picture weatherwise, since that’s the first thing I looked at.  Plus I figure some of you are model-starved.
Looks like not too wet tomorrow and Thursday, more rain Friday-Sunday, then finally some nice spring weather for next week.  Here are the two ensemble charts from both the 00z GFS and ECMWF last night:
tseries_850t_000-360_Portland
tseries_850t_000-384_Portland
You can see the obvious ridging next week along with the below average 850mb temps this week.  Also note operational runs are much warmer than ensembles.  Check out the operational ECMWF meteogram:
KPDX_2014040100_dx_240
No rain next week and the warmest temperatures we’ve seen so far this spring, up around 80.  BUT, here’s another chart from the same run:
KPDX_2014040100_nx_240
It also shows the maximum temp on the top half in black squares for the operational run (note it matches the previous chart numbers).  Then the ensemble average is the smaller green squares.  Those numbers are more like mid 60s.  The bottom chart is minimum temperature.
Here’s a look at the monthly ECMWF maps from Sunday night’s run…showing troughing this week, ridging next, and then no real clear signal after that:

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA

So the message here is that starting next Monday, we have a warmer/drier pattern for a while, but we don’t know if it’ll be really warm or just a bit warmer than average.  Either way it appears that some nice April weather is on the way.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

38 Responses to Spring Break Wrap; Warmer Weather Ahead…Eventually

  1. Jason Hougak says:

    Ariel can rest assured God has been watching over her and your family Mark. Life may have its ups and downs but until something scary happens to your kids nothing else matters. Afterwards we learn not to take everything we have for granted. We can be here today and gone tomorrow. Glad your back and your family is safe.

  2. Sapo says:

    Looking forward to the nice weather!

  3. Jeff Raetz says:

    getting windy before the rain moves in

    25mph in oak grove

    32mph in happy valley

    5 minutes ago

  4. John Liu says:

    Thank goodness for your wife, and for you too! I’m glad your daughter is all right. She’s so lucky her parents acted quickly. Truly scary.

  5. schmit44 says:

    4/2/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:65 at CW5302 Roseburg( 410 ft) & ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft) & MERLIN SEED ORCH(1144 ft) & PROVOLT SEED ORC(1180 ft) & DW9755 Eugene(377 ft)
    Low: 47 at John Day River B(305 ft) & RUFUS(185 ft) & DW6006 Troutdale(262 ft) & WYETH(102 ft) & DUNES1(173 ft) & Celilo, East of(225 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:26 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 14 at FOURMILE LAKE NE (5810 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 34 degrees
    CABIN LAKE (50/16 ) (4560 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.57″ at FORT ROCK(4413ft)
    0.57″ at LAVA BUTTE(4650ft)
    0.57″ at SLIDE MOUNTAIN(5589ft)
    0.49″ at SALT CREEK-PRINE(4155ft)
    0.42″ at BEND WATERSHED(5330ft)
    0.39″ at BADGER CREEK(5710ft)

  6. Janie Brickell says:

    I am so happy to hear about Ariel’s speedy diagnosis and quick recovery. Sheila is such a wonderful mother and should be so proud of herself for her quick intuition and action. I do hope that you can enjoy some camping this summer to make up for her spring break 🙂

  7. WEATHERDAN says:

    60 at 3:00 PM Lots of sun out there today. Really looking forward to next week.

  8. Not nearly as warm as I thought it might be today! Only 50 degrees so far.

  9. Garron near Washington square says:

    Wow, Mark, happy that you and your family are back safe and she’s feeling better. My heart felt best wishes to you and your whole family. At least you had the time off to be together while she was healing up. Yeah, good thing you were in country at least. Man, those out of country hospitals can be scary stuff, I am thankful I never got too sick as a kid. Living in the middle east, I only heard the horror stories about the terrible hospital conditions, and never had to experience it.

    • Garron near Washington square says:

      On a side note, southern “Floridians” kinda think they are in another country. I’ve talked to several that used to live down there, and they think everyone north of Tampa is from another country, so I don’t think they think “our” driving laws apply to them.

  10. alohabb says:

    Its amazing how quickly things like this happen and everything else is so irrelevant. Similar situation for my daughter on July 4th last year. All is well but its been a long few months. Glad shes doing better!

  11. PaulO says:

    Sorry about your vacation but thanks be to Godyour daughter is fine. Good job by your wife!

  12. schmit44 says:

    4/1/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:61 at DW7774 Roseburg( 446 ft) & EW3335 Jacksonvi(1390 ft) & MERLIN SEED ORCH(1144 ft)
    Low: 49 at HEPP(311 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:27 at SUMMER RIM(7100 ft)
    Low: 17 at FOURMILE LAKE NE (5810 ft ) & Rim (7050 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 30 degrees
    PROVOLT SEED ORC (60/30 ) (1180 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.30″ at CW1038 Sumpter(4321ft)
    1.30″ at Kent (US 97 MP 4(2705ft)
    1.10″ at FISH CREEK(7900ft)

  13. Ron says:

    It sounds like a frightening experience, Mark. I’m glad things turned out the way they did.

  14. bri says:

    I dont quite know how to read the charts…wondering what you think april 12th will look like? Its my wedding day just praying for no rain!
    Glad your daughter is doing better!

  15. Longview 400 ft says:

    Hey Mark,
    Over Christmas break a friends daughter had the same thing happen to her as your daughter, same place, and same situation. It was weird reading about your families similar story in Orlando.

    I am relieved to read all is well with your family.

  16. Jake-(Gresham) says:

    8.0 earthquake off the coast of Chile.

    http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/01/world/americas/chile-earthquake/

    Apparently a tsunami was triggered.

  17. boydo3 N Albany says:

    Wow, viral meningitis! (:
    Really glad to hear your daughter is recovering tho. Maybe she can have some fun in the sun next week with those chickens and ducks!

  18. WEATHERDAN says:

    Going back to 1888 which is as far as records go in the mid valley it used to be that our first 80 degree day was in May or even in June. Now it usually happens in April. Also back in the 19th century it was common to see lows in Salem of 40-45 in the Summer. There were even some 30,s. Now our lows are usually 55-60 with a few upper 40,s scattered in. We had a record 29 mornings last Summer when the low never dropped below 60. Fascinating. On a personal note Mark I am glad to hear your daughter is OK. You and your family are in my prayers. Peace.

    • Ted Berry says:

      I have lived here near Barton Park on the Clackamas River for almost 40 years. Being a farmer I keep mental tabs on the weather and possible temperatures;

      This has always been the “rule of thumb”;

      March 1= 1st chance of 70 degrees
      April 1= 1st chance of 80 degrees
      May1= 1st chance of 90 degrees
      June 1= 1st chance of 100 degrees, (although we have hit 100 degrees out here in mid-May).

      Last freeze here can be as late as May 15

  19. High Desert Mat (Model Rider) Redmond Or says:

    Very sorry to hear that Mark. My thoughts and prayers are with your family.

    Been snowing here all day. Temp hovering about freezing and holding steady thru the day. Grassy areas are white and that’s about it. Bend is getting more accumulation. Going to be icy tonight if it clears at all.

  20. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Looks like a April Fool’s Joke today with rain coming from the east!

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    917 AM PDT TUE APR 1 2014

    A LARGE TROWAL LIKE FEATURE HAS SET UP OVER NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND CONTINUES TO FEED SHOWERS
    FROM THE EAST INTO THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE…PORTLAND METRO AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. WHILE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE
    WEAKENING IN THIS REGION TODAY…THE GENERAL STRUCTURE OF THE MID LEVEL TROWAL WILL CONTINUE. AS A RESULT…POPS WERE INCREASED FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND SOUTHWEST
    WASHINGTON WHERE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY…AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING.

    http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=RTX-N0Q-1-12

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir4km_enhanced+12

    • Garron near Washington square says:

      I saw that on radar, and thought the same thing night before last, that someone was playing a joke on us, and running the radar in reverse..lol

  21. carnyfriday says:

    Glad your daughter is okay! I bet if you contacted the parks and explain the situation, they will refund your tickets!

  22. fishinhappyrock says:

    Happy to hear your daughter is well, it’s times like those that puts life into perspective.

  23. gidrons says:

    Scary scary stuff. I can’t think of anything worse than losing a child. We are all glad Ariel recovered.

    Thanks for the maps. I’m a junkie when the operational is advertising a warm April ridge.

  24. schmit44 says:

    Here are the final standings for the March 2014 Weather Contest

  25. Jeff says:

    Sorry to hear about your daughter’s illness, but very happy that she has made a recovery. I am glad she was able to get the care that she needed–and that your wife recognized the severity of the illness.

    Regarding Florida drivers, my mother lives there, so I visit from time to time. On every single trip, I have seen at least one serious car crash (i.e., serious enough that one or more cars have to be towed). They almost always are the result of drivers running red lights. If you do not enter an intersection on a yellow light (even if you have ample time to stop), there is a high probability that you will be rear-ended because that is not expected driving behavior. I absolutely hate driving there. And, editorial comment, while things are much better here, I see more and more red-light running and I hope we are not headed down the same road (so to speak) as Florida.

  26. Stephanie says:

    I am sorry to hear about your trip. Praise God for her being on the mend. He is Good.
    Question… Generally, how accurate is our local 10 day precep forecast? I am anxiously watching due to outdoor plans 4/11 and 4/12 that I would prefer to not be rained out and into my small home! 🙂 Thanks bunches!

  27. schmit44 says:

    Rainfall late last evening surged PDX into a tie for the 2nd wettest March of all-time with 7.52″

    • Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

      I recorded 7.06″ of total rainfall in March, the wettest month at my location since December 2012.

  28. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    Sorry about your vacation, Mark, but I’m happy to hear that your daughter is much better now. That must have been terrifying for you & your family. Welcome home!

  29. Kim says:

    So thankful your kiddo is well! And yay for some sun in our near future!!!

  30. Dan Turner says:

    Mark —
    I’m sorry to hear about your daughter illness over your vacation. My heart goes out to her, you and your family. I can’t imagine how stressful of a ‘vacation’ that had to be. Although, we’ve never met, I enjoy reading your blog. Hopefully your family can take some time off to recover.
    Sincerely,
    Dan

  31. MasterNate says:

    WOW, what a scary trip. So glad everything worked out for your family. Great to have all of you back.

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