A Windy and Rainy Night

Lots of rain today, in fact as of 10pm Portland has seen record rain for the day…1.16″ and counting.  Here are some other totals:

PLOT_Rain_Metro_Autoplot

Luckily not enough to cause anything other than localized flooding.

The wind has picked up too with gusts around 30 mph in the western valleys.  Strongest wind will be around daybreak or just beyond both at the Coast and in the Valleys.

MarkWarnings_Wind_Coast_Valleys2

MarkWarnings_Wind_Coast_Valleys

Once we get past midday, the showers and wind will calm down dramatically west of the Cascades.

There are strong hints of more mild early spring weather on the maps.  The ECMWF and GFS have slowed down the arrival of precipitation for Saturday now.  To at least 4pm or even later.  If so, we have two very nice days coming up Friday and Saturday…maybe time for me to clean up the mess on the driveway left by Sunday’s ice storm.

Next week is looking mild as well as some sort of upper ridge develops along the West Coast.   Whether it will allow a system through the middle of next week for rain is up in the air.  But the ECMWF, GFS, and GEM all show mild conditions through about 10 days.  You can see the 12z ECMWF only had about .30″ in Salem from late Sunday through the following 6 days.

imageControl

And lots of days in the 55-65 degree range.

Then take a look:

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

models are indicating the ridging pushing much farther west after that time for a cool pattern again starting around the 17th.  You can see it on the 00z GFS ensemble chart.  The red line is the ensemble average; it plunges from around +7 on the 16th to -3 a few days later.  The operational run (blue) is likely too cold, but all the main models show the same cooling in the 3rd week of the month.  So enjoy the mild weather the next 7-10 days because then it’ll probably turn cooler again.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

15 Responses to A Windy and Rainy Night

  1. pappoose in scappoose says:

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    952 AM PST THU MAR 6 2014

    UPDATE…MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW THAT HAS SPUN UP OFF THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA OVERNIGHT. IT IS CURRENTLY COMING ONSHORE OVER LONG BEACH. MODELS…INCLUDING THE
    HRRR/RAP…HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON IT ALL SO AM RELYING ON EXPERIENCE FOR THE IMMEDIATE EVOLUTION. FORTUNATELY…RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA MAKE IT APPEAR AS THOUGH THE LOW HAS ALREADY REACHED IT`S LOWEST
    PRESSURE AND IS ALREADY FILLING AND THUS WEAKENING. MAIN IMPACT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SOUTHERLY WIND GUST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE A LITTLE TIGHTER THAN MODELS WOULD OTHERWISE INDICATE. HAVE ALREADY SEEN GUSTS INTO THE 40S IN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY. VERY LOW LEVEL RADAR VELOCITY DATA IS NOT OVERLY
    CONCERNING BUT DID SHOW 35 KT INBOUND AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE RADAR AT ABOUT 830 AM SO EXPECT THAT LEVEL OF GUSTS TO REACH THE FOOTHILLS AT TIMES WITH A BETTER CHANCE ALONG THE CASCADES.
    ADDITIONALLY…BUOY 89 IS SHOWING A 3-HOURLY PRESSURE RISE OF 8.5 MB WITH IS RATHER SIGNIFICANT. THIS TYPICALLY INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED SINKING MOTION BEHIND A FRONT, BUT IN THIS CASE, COULD BE MORE OF AN ARTIFACT OF THE NEARLY DIRECT HIT BY THE LOW CENTER. WILL STILL CONTINUE THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORY FOR THE VALLEY AND NORTH COAST AREAS AS STILL FEEL LIKE THERE WILL
    BE PLENTY OF WESTERLY WIND POTENTIAL AS THE PRIMARY WRAP AROUND OCCLUSION BAND MOVES ONSHORE TODAY.

  2. pappoose in scappoose says:

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
    930 AM PST THU MAR 6 2014

    SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH STARTING TO MOVE INTO WRN WA. THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS PICKED UP BY THE LOWEST .2 DEGREE SCAN ON THE COASTAL RADAR AND EXTENDS HIGH ENOUGH TO SHOW UP WELL ON IR/SATELLITE IMAGERY. MODELS SEEM TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE VORT FEATURE AND ALSO HAVE IT LOCATED TOO FAR N…SWINGING IT INTO CENTRAL PUGET SOUND THIS AFTERNOON. INSTEAD…THIS FEATURE WILL PROBABLY CROSS THE SW INTERIOR AND COULD EVEN HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE LOW FEATURE. WILL NEED TO WATCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CASE THIS FEATURE GENERATES EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM ABOUT TACOMA SOUTHWARD. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHTNING…SMALL HAIL…OR EVEN A BRIEF COLD AIR FUNNEL.

  3. Hal in Aims says:

    power went out about 20 minutes ago……..again

  4. Jason Hougak says:

    That cooling is spring break, every year when I was it kid it was cool and wet. Looks like a typical March setting up. Only nice thing about these mild nights is not having to build a fire and stoke it all day, my wife is thrilled! I’m looking forward to spring skiing, continuing to teach my daughter and soon my son to ski. Winter is tough for me to take them because I’m a powder hound and it’s usually too brutal for them still. Come on let’s get some awesome Tstorms this year. The past few years have been bunk.

  5. W7ENK says:

    Loud explosion just rocked me out of bed, and the power is now out for the first time since I moved into this house almost 3 years ago. It took me a couple minutes to declaw myself from the ceiling! Whole neighborhood is dark, looks fairly widespread through Milwaukie as my Mom called to say she lost her power, too. The wind isn’t really all that bad right here, but it’s fairly constant.

    Now to try and fall back asleep…

  6. High Desert Mat (Model Rider) Redmond Or says:

    I just hope that the cooler trend in the second half of the month isn’t a precursor of the following spring. I have a strange feeling it could be….

  7. EY (Oak Grove) says:

    …That sounds stronger than 40mph outside right now. Can hear my house shaking.

  8. schmit44 says:

    3/5/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:70 at ECHO( 758 ft)
    Low: 56 at EW4053 Myrtle Po(417 ft) & EW3367 Coos Bay(98 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:36 at Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft) & HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 27 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 27 degrees
    EW1140 Umatilla (69/42 ) (364 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    4.10″ at NORTH FORK(3120ft)
    4.03″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)
    3.95″ at CANNIBAL MOUNTAI(1939ft)
    3.89″ at SOUTH FORK(2257ft)
    3.69″ at DW0237 Lees Camp(699ft)
    3.56″ at CEDAR(2220ft)
    3.24″ at TILLAMOOK(11ft)
    3.05″ at PACCTY-2 Pacific(28ft)

  9. karlbonner1982 says:

    First…and you mean “enjoy the nice weather the next 10-14 days, right?

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