A Chilly & Windy March Weekend

The first weekend of March is here!  Hard to believe, but meteorologically we’re heading into spring now.  Of course this weekend will feel more like winter than spring, especially in the Gorge and east of the Cascades.  Here are my latest thoughts on this weekend:

MarkSnow_PortlandOutlookPercentages

 

MarkSnow_PortlandOutlookPercentages2

Basically I still think the WRF-GFS and NAM are far too cold.  We’ll know by sunrise.  The WRF-GFS says we’ll be about 36 at sunrise and down to 30 by noon!  Anyone with experience around here knows that’s extremely unlikely on March 1st under our current weather pattern.    The 12z ECMWF was a little cool for me to totally say NO SNOW here in the metro area, but I think that even these “warmer” models are a little too chilly.  Notice this shows temps just barely above freezing late Saturday night and early Sunday morning, then southerly flow takes over and we warm up.  All models agree on the rapid warmup from midday Sunday through Sunday night, so at least that part of the forecast is easy.  By the way I really like the mild temps next week; it’s going to feel like (very) early spring.

ecm_12zmeteogram

 

As for that WRF-GFS; very strange.  Note that this evening’s run still tries to drop up to 2″ across the “east wind zone” of the metro area by early Sunday morning:

wrf_snowendsundayam

But at the same time the sounding shows temps well above freezing during the night around 2,000!

wrf_sounding_1amSunday

What???  Another reason to ignore it this time around.

The National Weather Service does have a Winter Storm Watch out for the entire Columbia River Gorge (and the valleys around it) for late Saturday through Sunday.  Seems like a good call assuming the moisture shows up.  Not sure if we’ll actually see it cold enough for any big issues on I-84.  It may just be during the night Saturday night through early Sunday.  We’ll see.  This all hinges on how much cold air actually makes it south into the Gorge.  I see the WRF-GFS claims it’ll be 20-25 degrees all day tomorrow at Hood River and The Dalles.  If models are off on the intensity of cold air by 10 degrees then we’ll be out of it in the Gorge by Sunday afternoon.

Stay warm this weekend!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

70 Responses to A Chilly & Windy March Weekend

  1. GTS1K' says:

    Icing up only now, even though I’ve been at 30.2 since last evening. Trees, decks, wire fences, grass all coated.
    30.2 still…

  2. Don Troutdale 230FT says:

    Frz Rain 30f Troutdale. Everything covered.

  3. Lurkyloo says:

    Woke up to crackling trees and baby icicles outside.

  4. Looks like the anemometer at Corbett has finally froze up from the freezing rain.

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=AU658&table=1&banner=off

    • Jack in Corbett says:

      Here in the Gorge at Corbett everything is iced over this morning. Hopefully everyone will stay off the roads! Currently 29.1 with gusts in 30’s.

  5. pappoose in scappoose says:

    OK, wet and windy, locate the dinghy and tie it off to the porch!
    Hahaah!

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    317 AM PST SUN MAR 2 2014

    MILDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY PUSH IN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE INTO WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE COAST AND WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SERIES OF POTENT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL THEN KEEP THINGS WET AND WINDY AT TIMES FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

    WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON RAINFALL TOTALS THIS WEEK…AS A SERIES OF FAIRLY MOIST SYSTEMS MOVES ACROSS THE PAC NW. EACH SYSTEM HAS THE
    POTENTIAL TO BRING 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN TO HIGHER TERRAIN…AND MODELS SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON BRINGING ONE THROUGH EVERY 24-36 HRS. IT
    APPEARS THE JUICIEST SYSTEM WILL COME MIDWEEK…AS MODELS SHOW IT HAVING A STRONG TAP TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. IF RAINFALL AND FAIRLY HIGH SNOW LEVELS PAN OUT AS PRESENTLY EXPECTED…THERE COULD BE SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAGLE

  6. Garron near Washington square says:

    Getting a light snow rain mix right now. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=RTX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

  7. schmit44 says:

    3/1/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:66 at CW6811 Grants Pa( 947 ft) & MERLIN SEED ORCH(1144 ft)
    Low: 39 at PROVOLT SEED ORC(1180 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:26 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 16 at EW4395 Milton Fr (3455 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 24 degrees
    PROVOLT SEED ORC (63/39 ) (1180 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.02″ at YELLOWSTONE MTN.(3080ft)

  8. boydo3 N Albany says:

    Got a text from my son. Black Butte was getting snow, but raining at Hoodoo ski area just up the hill on the pass. Oh well, they had fireworks in the rain for their belated winter fest 😦 Crummy winter for the ski area all around..

  9. geo says:

    Ice forming on my deck here in sw gresham, but not on the pavement.

  10. Eastman(Parkrose/NE Portland) says:

    Parkrose- NE.

    My trees have a very thin ice sheet in them.
    Crackling in the wind.

    Car also has a tad bit of ice in spots. East wind blowing moderately.

    Seems like frozen precipitation is starting.

  11. Josh Gardner says:

    Freezing rain now in Troutdale, Fairview, Wood Village and Gresham east of 223rd.

    • Josh Gardner says:

      I’m between 202nd and 212th. 32.5 here and still wet

    • schmit44 says:

      I am getting reports of mid 30s and drizzle from official sensors in that area. Looks like you may have ice cream under the temperature sensor?

    • High Desert Mat (Model Rider) Redmond Or says:

      I don’t think so Brian with Mark reading at 27 right now. Those seem pretty accurate.

  12. High Desert Mat (Model Rider) Redmond Or says:

    Geez, after tonight sounds like there’s no exciting weather for awhile. Low to mid 50’s and wet just sounds lame. Hate this time of year weatherwise.

  13. High Desert Mat (Model Rider) Redmond Or says:

    Still north winds in Redmond.

  14. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Any snow on the roads will make driving difficult! Hahaah!

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/make_img.php?wfo=sew&iname=Active_Screen1L&size=1&force=no

    • David B. says:

      Probably going to end up getting a few wet flakes, like I thought, then. I’m not in the higher hills, so doubt I will see 2″.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I was a little surprised they were calling for that much action up your way.

  15. David B. says:

    38 and light drizzle up here to your north. Had a little graupel this morning. If if cools down a few degrees more and the precip rate picks up, I just might see some flakes by the morning.

  16. Don Troutdale 230ft says:

    Don Troutdale 32F icicles on deck.

  17. pappoose in scappoose says:

    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-
    525 PM PST SAT MAR 1 2014

    WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY…NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR THE WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
    GORGE…

    TIMING…SNOW…SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE MORE ON SUNDAY AND BECOME INCREASINGLY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET…BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
    ACCUMULATIONS…THROUGH TONIGHT…1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW OR SLEET…POSSIBLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. FOR SUNDAY MORNING… POSSIBLY ANOTHER TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.
    IMPACTS…TRAVEL ON MAIN HIGHWAYS SUCH AS INTERSTATE 84 AND WASHINGTON HIGHWAY 14 WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT AS LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME SECONDARY
    ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO SNOW AND ICE. ICE ACCUMULATION ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.

    A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES…AND USE CAUTION WHILE
    DRIVING.

  18. Jack in Corbett says:

    In the Gorge at Corbett — 32*

    Has been around freezing all afternoon with light rain. No ice, yet?

  19. High Desert Mat (Model Rider) Redmond Or says:

    Come on guys, can we get some temp checks where you are at?

    I’ll start, 28.4

  20. vernonia1 says:

    severe weather alert for freezing rain Troutdale-Cascade Locks as per Tripcheck.

  21. Eastman(Parkrose/NE Portland) says:

    Went from 37 to 33 in ne. Parkrose- east wind blowing moderately.

  22. High Desert Mat (Model Rider) Redmond Or says:

    About 3″ fell from 7:30 last night thru this morning. Sitting at 28.5 degrees and has dropped one degree since 10am. Here’s to another 3″ by tomorrow morning.

  23. sinmob says:

    No snow coming so get out of your parents basements and go do something

  24. geo says:

    Umm… 34 degrees here in Gresham with blistery east winds and light rain. Not sure what the DP is.

  25. vernonia1 says:

    at work…can someone send me the link to a wind speed chart. Think it came from pappoose…..was green with real time wind speeds Thanks!

  26. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    After a 48° reading at midnight, the temp here has dropped to 38.1°/DP35° with backdoor seepage out of the E @ 5-10 mph. 😉

  27. chiefWright (Marquam) says:

    Interesting watching the temps thru N Willamette Valley, Portland Basin & Tualatin/Yamhill basins. Most everyone stayed steady overnight until early morning, then several (not all!) stations closest to the gorge started dropping, then further (not all!) stations started to drop; though most north of Salem have been pretty steady.
    Probably a combination of both cooler air threading out of the gorge and shower-induced cooling, yielding a spotty cooling trend.
    Just looks like another cold, soggy, late winter Oregon weekend, though all the model hullabaloo did break the boredom a bit.
    Good reason to hit the Wurstfest in Mt. Angel for some beer & brats!

  28. Sapo says:

    Wow…Latest WRF-GFS doesn’t really even have temperatures cold enough for sticking snow anytime in the next 48 hours. Definitely looking bad for any snow.

  29. chiefWright (Marquam) says:

    Well, the models have succeeded in completely bamboozling the night crew:

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    435 AM PST SAT MAR 1 2014

    SHORT TERM…TODAY THROUGH MONDAY…LET ME START OFF BY SAYING THIS
    IS ONE OF THE MOST CHALLENGING FORECASTS THUS FAR IN MY CAREER…

    models, shmodels.

  30. schmit44 says:

    2/28/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:68 at DW1265 Newport( 164 ft)
    Low: 51 at Port Orford(0 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:31 at POINT PROM II(6607 ft) & Timberline Lodge(7001 ft) & Rim(7050 ft)
    Low: 21 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 30 degrees
    DW6659 Colton (62/32 ) (825 ft )
    CROOKED RIVER FE (55/25) (2919 ft)
    EW2055 Prairie C (54/24) (3547 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.29″ at Bend Airport AWO(3455ft)

  31. No Snow says:

    Ruth’s Chris time!

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