Just checked out all the maps/models and made the 7 Day forecast. Not a whole lot going on the next few days. Friday should be dry!
It appears some sort of upper level ridging is going to be near/along the West Coast for the next 10 days or so. This time it won’t be totally dry though because it doesn’t appear to be a big blocking ridge that shunts storms well away from our area. Note the ECMWF ensemble forecast of upper level heights for this coming Tuesday.
You see the above average heights over us. Then by next Friday a nice cold trough runs right into California…good news for them!
Beyond that, ridging builds along the coast again during the first full week in March. Here’s one week later on March 7th:
These maps tell me we are done with the stormy weather for now, and it’s on to a more “March-like” pattern with wet periods mixed with drier weather at times. Not a real warm pattern, but we should see our first 60-65 degree temp at some point between day 7-14. With a chilly and wet February, one thing we did miss out on was any sort of “false spring” type weather. In many Februarys we have at least a day or two in the lower 60s…not this year!
Here are the ensemble charts from the 12z ECMWF and 12z GFS, showing no sign of real cold air, but no huge ridges either. Interesting to note that these would say no “lower Cascades & foothill ” snow in the next two weeks either. I’m talking the 1,000-2,500′ elevations where some people live west of the Cascades. This is an area that has seen an unusually low snow total this season. It’s been arctic air with snow in the lowlands, or good snow higher up in the Cascades. Almost none of the cold/wet shower pattern with snow levels around 1,000′ to 2,000′ the whole winter. I’ve only had 7.5″ the whole winter at my home east of Corbett at 1,000′.
And some more maps, the ECMWF monthly run from last night, showing average 500mb heights. Each map covers a whole week. You see the ridging, and then by the 4th week just a jumbled mess.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen